The Los Angeles Dodgers have been linked to Brian Dozier for a number of weeks now. It’s obvious the Dodgers need to figure out who will field ground balls at second base before the season starts, but I don’t think Dozier should be the solution.
The Minnesota Twins, the current employer of Brian Dozier, are said to be wrapping up the discussion on the stud second baseman. But despite the negotiations apparently winding down, the Dodgers are still in the hunt.
Sources: Brian Dozier trade talks expected to resolve, one way or another, in next week. #Dodgers still one of teams in talks with #Twins.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 4, 2017
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone keeping tabs on the Dodgers off season so far. Howie Kendrick and Chase Utley, two main sources of production from second base in 2016, are both absent from the 2017 roster so far. Kendrick will most definitely not be coming back as he was traded this winter. Utley, meanwhile, is still an option as he is a free agent.
But the Dodgers like dynamic players, and Utley isn’t exactly that. He’s serviceable, but he’s no Brian Dozier.
The appeal of Dozier is obvious. He hit a career high 42 home runs last season. He also managed to drive in 99 runs despite playing for the abysmal Twins, he walks a decent amount resulting in a good on base percentage, and he has steady improved his wRC+ since his debut in 2012. All point to a promising player that would surely help the Dodgers’ offense.
In a vacuum, Dozier is one of the very best offensive second basemen in the game. In fact, Dozier’s wRC+ of 132 ranked 5th best in all of baseball last year. If you exclude Matt Carpenter, who spends the majority of his time at third base, Dozier would rank 4th best in baseball.
It’s no joke. Dozier is an offensive threat in a fairly deep position pool at second base. Because of his ability to hit, and the Dodgers deep farm system, it’s obvious why they’re targeting him.
But, the Twins are asking for too much. And I mean WAY too much!
The Twins are asking for stud young prospect, Jose De Leon.
It’s not that big of a shock that the Twins are trying to pry De Leon loose from the Dodgers. Dozier has a team friendly contract, so any team looking to acquire him would need to be willing to give up valuable players.
But I draw the line at Jose De Leon.
And the 2017 projections are why.
In 2017, Steamer, a projection site, pegs Brian Dozier to be worth around 3.1 WAR. That’s a good mark. It may be a little pessimistic of Dozier’s abilities, but it still would be a positive contribution to a luck laster second base class this off season.
Jose De Leon, meanwhile, is pegged at .4 WAR.
Wait, what?
This absolutely minuscule number is because Steamer only thinks De Leon will pitch 18 innings in 2017 for the Dodgers. But I don’t buy that. De Leon seems to be a fixture in the Dodgers’ plans this year. Sure, he probably won’t get 200 IP. But just for the sake of argument, let’s say he does hit the 200 IP mark, which would be approximately a full season’s work load.
He’d be worth 4.4 WAR.
That’s more than Brian Dozier in a full season! One full year of Jose De Leon is already more valuable than one full year of Brian Dozier. So why would the Dodgers even consider this trade?
Well, it’s they’re trying to improve the present day roster. Like I said earlier, De Leon will likely not come near the 200 IP mark meaning he won’t be as valuable as Dozier this year. But it sure seems like he will be in the future (maybe only a year from now, even).
Just to make things even clearer. Julio Urias, in a 200 IP season, is projected to be worth 3.77 WAR. And that’s even less than De Leon’s projection.
If Urias was traded for Dozier, every Dodger fan would be furious. But trading De Leon isn’t that much different. He’s a brilliant younger pitcher, and trading him for Dozier would be a serious mistake.
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