Detroit Tigers trade deadline predictions for the 2017 season
The Detroit Tigers trade deadline decisions this summer will shape the franchise's future. They haven't officially gone into sell mode, but that can change once the trading season officially begins.
Recently, the Tigers released closer Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was underperforming and a change was needed in the ninth inning. It wasn't because they were hoping another reliever could help them win games as much as it was to showcase the talents of Justin Wilson before they unload him.
We should expect to see some really big trades from the Tigers this season. Just about everyone will be for sale with only a few exceptions—namely Michael Fulmer, Nick Castellanos, and other affordable younger players.
For the Tigers, it's important they do what they can to revamp a dying franchise. This means moving on from the old and getting some new blood in the system. Can they do it? If these predictions become true, they may do so.
J.D. Martinez is traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers
There aren't too many perfect landing spots for right fielder J.D. Martinez. The best is by far the Los Angeles Dodgers. They aren't getting the desired production out of Yasiel Puig which could mean renting Martinez for the rest of 2017.
The benefit of a deal between the Dodgers and Tigers is each has what the other wants. Detroit has the slugger to save Los Angeles from using Puig everyday. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several notable outfield prospects the Tigers could use to fill the void in center field. Alex Verdugo is one of the most desirable trade chips we could see move from the Dodgers organization to the Tigers'. It's all a matter of the Dodgers needing Martinez bad enough and feeling confident they can move on from Verdugo.
Trading Martinez is a top priority as he is in the last year of his contract. Surely, someone will take him. Everyone's best guess is Los Angeles.
The expensive veterans stay put
One thing everyone wants to know is whether or not the Tigers will trade Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, or Ian Kinsler. These three core members of the franchise have been with the organization for the long haul. My prediction: they all stay in Detroit.
The biggest reason is obvious: money. Verlander, Cabrera, and Kinsler are quite costly. Only Kinsler is somewhat affordable, but he has not produced well enough this year for anyone to target him hard. The need across MLB for a veteran second baseman isn't too great either. So, unless someone suffers an injury, destinations for Kinsler are extremely limited.
The Tigers will receive a few inquiries about Verlander. However, his huge contract and poor performance this year will drive the return down significantly. After narrowly winning the Cy Young Award last season, Verlander has fallen back to his 2014 ways when he posted an unusually high 4.54 ERA. At age 34 with two years of $28 million left on his contract, few teams will have any interest in him without the Tigers paying a significant sum of the deal.
As for Cabrera, there are many other cheaper first base options on the market. Although he can provide experience and leadership, his contract and declining numbers will keep him in Detroit.
Alex Avila is traded and becomes a key platoon player in another city
Will general manager Al Avila trade his son, Alex Avila? Sometimes fathers have to make some really tough decisions with their kids. This is one of them.
Avila is having a phenomenal year this season while splitting time with catcher James McCann. The left-handed hitting Avila is on a cheap one-year deal and very much up for sale. Is there a match around MLB?
The most difficult part in trading Avila is not too many competitive teams need a catcher. Jonathan Lucroy of the Texas Rangers could also become available. While Lucroy carries the better career, Avila is having the far greater season and would not cost as much in terms of prospects or cash. This could work to the Tigers' advantage. Plus, there's no family guilt associated because Avila could always return to the Tigers next season.
The best place for Avila is anywhere he could hit in a platoon with a right-handed catcher. Several teams could look to upgrade including the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, and Washington Nationals. It's unlikely Avila lands a starting job anywhere as he is still limited. This doesn't mean Detroit is stuck with him for the rest of 2017 as he puts up gaudy numbers for a losing baseball team.
Someone takes Anibal Sanchez
There was a period when Anibal Sanchez was a very productive member of the Tigers rotation. That time has passed to the point where he even received a demotion to Triple-A earlier this year. The hardship doesn't look like it will disappear anytime soon which means trading him is the best option for Detroit.
Obviously, there won't be too many takers for a pitcher with an ERA over 7.00. Detroit would also have to eat most of his salary which includes a total of $16.8 million this season and a buyout of $5 million next year. This complicates things in any trade talks involving Sanchez.
Despite these odds, I see someone taking Sanchez. A team looking for another option at the fifth starter spot could cross their fingers and hope for a better performance. The Baltimore Orioles, for instance, would have nothing to lose given their own pitchers' struggles. First, they would need to prove they are actually capable of competing which their record shows they are not.
Detroit should not expect to get much of anything in return for Sanchez. This would merely become a salary dump deal. An organization near .500 with cash to burn could even decide to use him as a reclamation project. If the trade is completed early enough and Sanchez pitches well, the new team could always flip him in August.
They try to trade Justin Upton to no avail
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The Tigers were willing to break the bank when they signed Justin Upton to a huge deal prior to the 2016 campaign. Thus far, the signing has not worked out too well. Upton slashed .246/.310/.465 last year and was pretty much a free-swinging power hitter. His 31 home runs came with 179 strikeouts which surely balanced everything out.
This season has gone better for Upton, but he's not bound for the All-Star Game or living up to the $22.125 million per year contract. If the market for Martinez is limited, the one for Upton is even smaller.
My prediction for Upton at this year's trade deadline is that Detroit tries to trade him to no avail. The shortage of possible destinations, the poor performance, the contract, and all of the other power hitters out there take away from Upton's value.
A great benefit for the Tigers is Upton has an opt out in his contract after this season. Based on his performance, it's possible Upton does opt out. By doing so, Upton can secure a cheaper yet lengthier contract. At only 29-years-old, he has years left to play and turn his career around.
Ultimately, I see Upton staying in Detroit then coming to the realization that he's better off keeping the current contract rather than testing a market unkind to sluggers.
