Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Indians: What the Tribe's Pitching Staff is Up Against in the ALDS

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:08 a.m. ET

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Sep 23, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) singles during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Indians face a tall task in trying to contain Boston’s offense. What to do the stats say about the Red Sox lineup?

It’s not a secret to the Cleveland Indians or anyone else. The Boston Red Sox can score runs. Lots and lots of runs. Boston was the top scoring team in Major League Baseball during the regular season, and it wasn’t even close. For Cleveland to stand any chance of winning the American League Division Series with the Red Sox, limiting the damage its hitters do must be the top priority.

The BoSox averaged nearly 5.5 runs per game as a team, and led the AL in hits, doubles, runs batted in, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. From a value perspective, Boston also led the league in total bWAR among position players and offensive wins above replacement.

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So the biggest offensive juggernaut in baseball in 2016 will be facing a Cleveland pitching staff that will be without two of its top three starting pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, and with an ace in Corey Kluber who is recovering from a quadriceps strain that forced him to miss his final regular season start. If it seems like a tall order, that’s because it is.

But the Indians staff has been among the best in the league all season long, leading in ERA+, bWAR among pitchers, strikeouts, and wins above average, and placing among the top three clubs in ERA, FIP, strikeouts per nine innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Throw in the fact that the club has among the most dominant bullpens in the game, and the circumstances perhaps don’t feel quite as dire.

Winning the ALDS and moving deeper into October will surely not be easy. Boston took four out of six games from Cleveland during the regular season, outscoring them 31-18, and blistering the ball to the tune of a collective .291/.364/.507 slash line and OPS+ of 144. Of course, the Red Sox did that to nearly every opponent this year.

Who will Tribe pitchers be seeing in the BoSox lineup, and how can they best exploit their weaknesses? Let’s dive in and have a look.

Late September Struggles at the Plate

Sep 29, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (34) earns a walk during the fourth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s start with the good news. Boston struggled at the plate over the final two weeks of the regular season, going 7-5 in that span and losing five of its final six games. The Red Sox averaged just over 3.5 runs per game, and slashed only .224/.310/.347 as a team, with an OPS+ of just 82.

Among those who have struggled for Boston in that span were Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley, Jr., who are all fixtures in the everyday lineup, and platoon pieces Brock Holt, Sandy Leon, Chris Young, Andrew Benintendi, and Travis Shaw.

If that seems like most of the team, that’s because it is. Among the Red Sox everyday guys, only Mookie Betts and David Ortiz performed at or above their usual production down the final stretch of the regular season.

The late September swoon for John Farrell’s squad offensively was a significant cause for the first two games of the ALDS being played in Cleveland, as it looked entering the final week of that Boston had the inside track for the No. 2 seed. Whether the club’s struggles continue or not could go a long way towards determining who advances to the ALCS.

Cleveland Pitching vs. Boston Hitting

Sep 18, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer (47) throws against the Detroit Tigers in the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The stat line again for Boston in six games against the Cleveland pitching staff: .291/.364/.507 slash line and OPS+ of 144. Indians pitchers, like just about everyone else in MLB, had a tough time containing a Red Sox lineup with seemingly few holes one through nine.

Game one starter Trevor Bauer, who appeared in two games against the BoSox including one start, yielded six runs on ten hits in six innings of work (9.00 ERA) during the regular season. He walked three, gave up two home runs, and struck out just one.

Boston hitters slashed .357/.438/.643 against Bauer, with an OPS of 1.080 and an OPS+ of 165 that were the highest he allowed against any opponent. Betts, Ortiz, and Ramirez are the most dangerous matchups based upon the small sample size of facing the right-hander in their careers, as they have combined to go 9-for-15.

The Red Sox have a bit bigger book against Kluber, the game two starter, and had as much success against him in 2016 as just about any other team. In two starts spanning 12.1 innings, the BoSox scored six runs on 14 hits (.280/.333/.460), amassing a 96 OPS+. Kluber struck out 11 and walked four in those outings, and also served up two longballs.

Career-wise, Boston’s hitters are 36-for-130 against the 2014 AL Cy Young winner, with Betts, catcher Bryan Holaday, Holt, and Shaw having the most success. Kluber has had success neutralizing Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Ortiz, and continuing to do so will be a key in slowing the Red Sox down.

It may come as a shock, but the Tribe starter that fared best against Boston this season, and over his career, has been John Tomlin, who is the probable choice to be on the bump in game three at Fenway. In a single start this season, Tomlin held the Red Sox to three runs on seven hits in 7.2 innings of work (.241/.241/.448), good for an OPS+ of just 66.

In his career against these BoSox players, the 31-year old Texan has yielded just a .217 average (20-for-92). 16 of those hits have been singles and four were home runs, and he has done a number on Betts and Ortiz, who are a combined 4-for-23.

As far as the bullpen, the main four relievers of Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw, and Dan Otero for the Indians have been extremely solid this season against Boston, not allowing a single run in 8.2 innings, giving up eight hits and striking out 12.

In their careers, only Otero has had major struggles with the Red Sox, as seen below:

If Cleveland’s starters can keep the game in hand long enough to turn things over the relief corps, all historical signs point to the team being able to shut the BoSox down. History tends to go out the window in the playoffs, of course, but the Indians’ bullpen has been a decided team strength for the past two months, and there’s no reason to believe that can’t continue.

Boston Hitting vs. Cleveland Pitching

Sep 27, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia (15) hits an RBI single during the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Despite the one-on-one matchups described in the previous section, Boston as a whole has done a number on Cleveland’s staff this season, though of the four pitchers beaten up the worst, only two are locks to be on the postseason roster.

Among the most dangerous Red Sox hitters against the Indians this season, Ortiz stands head and shoulders above the rest, slashing .458/.519/1.125 with an OPS+ of 347. Big Papi is 11-for-24 with four doubles, four homers, and eight RBIs, with three of those big flies and five of those runs driven in coming at Progressive Field, having beaten up on Cleveland pitching more than any other team in his final season.

The trio of Bradley, Betts, and Ramirez are next in line as Tribe killers this season, each with an OPS+ of 185 or above, and combining for six home runs and 15 RBIs. Only Betts struggled in the three games in Cleveland, being held to a .231/.286/.462 slash line in 14 plate appearances.

Bogaerts, Pedroia, and Shaw each struggled in the season series, with Bogaerts in particular not being a big fan of Progressive Field. In three games in Cleveland, the all-star shortstop went 1-for-13, a slash line of .077/.143/.077, and four strikeouts.

The reason Boston has been so dangerous this season, and why the Indians’ pitching staff will have such a fight on its hands, is that the team can win in a variety of ways. In addition to being so prolific in their hitting, the Red Sox ranked second (to Cleveland) in baserunning according to FanGraphs, were third in stolen base success rate, and ranked second, according to Baseball Reference, in extra bases taken percentage. Only Betts and Bogaerts had double digit stolen bases, but the club is savvy and deceptive with its speed.

What Does it all Mean for Cleveland?

Sep 26, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Cody Allen (37) celebrates after the final pitch against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. The Indians won 7-4 to clinch the Central Division title. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Many in baseball media seem to believe that the injuries sustained by the Cleveland pitching staff will simply be too much for the team to overcome against so formidable an offensive opponent as Boston. Perhaps those folks are right, but the numbers available suggest the Indians have better odds of success than most will admit.

Yes, the Red Sox have Ortiz in the midst of perhaps the finest final season of a career in the history of the game. And yes, they also have Betts, who is likely to be the latest player to steal a Most Valuable Player award from Mike Trout (an argument for another time) in the American League. They have scored and scored, hit and hit, at a rate no other club in the big leagues could keep pace with this season.

But in the playoffs, what a team has done means little. Every baseball fan has watched a seemingly unbeatable Goliath fall at the hands of an underdog Sampson. Players who barely hit their hat size get hot in the postseason and MVP candidates turn ice cold. That’s why the games are played.

All of that said, Boston has a uniquely scary lineup that can win ballgames in a variety of ways. If the Tribe hopes to handcuff that lineup and come out on top in the ALDS, its pitching staff will have to focus, strategize, and execute on a level it never has before. The opportunity is there, it’s just a matter of whether or not the arms can prove mightier than the bats.

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