Cleveland Indians: Three Reasons the Tribe Will Beat Boston
Sep 21, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians left fielder Rajai Davis (20) is caught stealing by Kansas City Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar (2) during the sixth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The Cleveland Indians are underdogs in the ALDS against the Boston Red Sox despite claiming the No. 2 seed and home-field advantage. What can the Tribe do to pull off the upset?
Based upon the standings, the Cleveland Indians should be considered the favorite, even if only ever so slightly, over the the Boston Red Sox in the American League Division Series. But talk throughout baseball media and from oddsmakers have the Tribe playing the role of clear underdog, a team that would need a miracle to pull off an upset.
That’s just fine with a Cleveland team that has been defying the odds all season long. Every Indians fan by now knows by heart the long list of injuries and setbacks the club has endured in 2016, and yet the Tribe just kept on rolling, winning 94 games, capturing their first AL Central Division championship since 2007, and securing home-field advantage in the ALDS.
“We’ve been looking forward to it,” Jason Kipnis said on Sunday. “I know a lot of guys have been saying we’re going to be the underdogs in our own ballpark . . .guys on ESPN and MLB Network. They’re talking about teams tanking to play us. All we can do is use that as an advantage and say, ‘Be careful what you wish for.’ ”
Boston is a tough opponent, boasting the most prolific offense in Major League Baseball this season and a pitching staff led by a Cy Young award hopeful and a former Cy Young winner. The Red Sox have an MVP frontrunner and an icon putting up one of the finest performances in a final season that the game has ever seen. They have budding young stars and veterans with a winning pedigree all over the field.
The Indians may lack the total star power and huge payroll of the BoSox, but they’ve won this season with a total team effort. The Tribe has advantages in this series, and if they play to their strengths, can hang with and knock out any team in the league.
“I like when people doubt us,” Francisco Lindor said. “That’s what makes it fun, looking back and telling people. So we’ll see. We’ll see what happens.”
Here’s a look at how Cleveland can overcome the odds and put an end to Boston’s postseason dreams.
Baserunning
Sep 30, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Cleveland Indians base runner Carlos Santana (41) slides home with a run against the Kansas City Royals during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
The Indians began spring training back in February with the goal of becoming an improved team on the bases, and that early emphasis has paid major dividends. The Tribe led the American League in baserunning according to FanGraphs, stealing bases more frequently and taking extra bases more efficiently than any other team in the league.
“We don’t have to steal bases to be a good baserunning team,” manager Terry Francona said. “I think that’s one of our strengths, and I think it will continue.”
Cleveland stole 134 bases as a team, with an AL-best 81 percent success rate, and boast four players who swiped at least 15. Rajai Davis, at the age of 35, stole a league-leading 43 bases in 48 attempts (roughly 88 percent), followed by Jose Ramirez (22), Lindor (19), and Kipnis (15).
“Rajai has shown the way to steal bases,” Indians first-base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. said. “He’s not just a fast guy. He prepares himself. He knows what the guys are going to do. He has a great idea of what to do when he gets on base, and what guys are going to do to him.”
Boston catchers Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, who threw out 22 of 57 base stealers this season (39 percent), and the team’s catchers as a unit were below league average.
But swiping bags is only part of the equation. The Tribe was also the best in the league at taking extra bases, claiming 186 of them on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and defensive decisions, and at advancing the extra base on balls in play, which they did at a 45 percent rate.
For Cleveland to find success against the Red Sox, the club must use its speed and baserunning acumen to its advantage, challenging Boston’s pitchers to control the running game and applying pressure to defenders to make plays with their arms. The Indians did that better than anyone else in the league all season long, and must continue to use it as a weapon.
Bullpen
Aug 13, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Dan Otero (61) throws a pitch during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
At one point early in the season, Cleveland’s bullpen was viewed as a major question mark, but the relief corps has evolved into perhaps the best in baseball over the course of the past two months.
The acquisition of Andrew Miller was arguably the biggest move made by any contender at the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, and put the Indians bullpen into position to be a weapon at Francona’s disposal. In the second half of the season, the team’s relievers held the opposition to just a .228/.293/.375 slash line and an OPS+ of 88, with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
“I think the way the bullpen has kind of come together and been used in the course of the last six weeks really had a playoff-type environment to it, or feel to it,” president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said during Tuesday’s workout at Progressive Field. “So, I think our guys are really prepared going into the postseason and positioned to be successful.”
The quartet of Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, and Miller have been especially lethal, and give the Tribe a way to shorten games. Here’s how they pitched in the second half:
If Cleveland’s starters are able to last five innings with a lead or keeping the game close, it is highly likely that all four will see the mound, as the days off built into the series schedule allow for adequate rest. It’s the same blueprint the Kansas City Royals used in making it to the World Series the past two seasons, and the Tribe’s arms may be even better.
“You have to recognize that going in, that there’s no reason to not pitch a guy, even if you’re down a couple, when you have a day off the next day,” Francona said.
Given Boston’s potent offensive attack, the Indians’ bullpen may be the biggest key to the entire series. Francona has shown a willingness to eschew traditional relief pitcher usage in favor of using his best arms in the most critical situations, and that strategy will be put to the test against the Red Sox.
“You want to leverage certain guys in your bullpen, that’s for sure,” Francona said. “And we will do that to the best of our ability. You don’t want to get in the way of a starter. But you don’t want to go too long. In a short series, that’s challenging. That’s one of the challenging things.”
Rested Bats
Sep 30, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Cleveland Indians designated hitter Mike Napoli (26) singles against the Kansas City Royals during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Part of the reason that Cleveland was the second-highest scoring team in the American League this season was the production it received from the three and four spots in the lineup. Lindor and Mike Napoli both had incredibly solid seasons in those holes, without which the Indians likely would not be in the position they’re in.
But both players fell on hard times to the extreme during September, performing well below the standard that was set during the first five months of the season. Napoli was an abysmal 13-for-93 in the final month, with a slash line of .140 /.289/.323 and an OPS+ of 68. Lindor was only marginally better, going 21-for-90 with a .233/.365/.333 slash line and a 94 OPS+.
Napoli shared the team lead with 34 home runs in 2016, and drove in a club-high 101 runs, but he also played in more games (150) and had more plate appearances (645) than ever before in his 11-year career, and it wasn’t even close. If the 34-year old was wearing down in September, the four days off before the start of the ALDS could be just what he needed.
This being Lindor’s first full big league season, he too blew away his previous career-highs in games played and plate appearances, and also plays the taxing defensive position of shortstop at an elite level. His late-season swoon was the first sign of a sophomore slump, and overshadows the fact that he slashed .301/.358/.435 with 30 doubles, 15 homers, 78 RBIs, 19 stolen bases, and an OPS+ of 104. Lindor is another player who badly needed the break before the series.
Neither player hit particularly well against the Red Sox in the six regular season meetings, with Napoli struggling mightily (2-for-21), but the bearded slugger has been in October before. This is his eighth trip to the postseason, and that experience is invaluable not only to Napoli himself in making adjustments, but to a young team that in most cases will be playing on the biggest stage they’ve yet seen.
The playoffs are a scenario where all bets are off. Anything can happen, and oftentimes the underdog does the unthinkable. With the postseason experience of Francona, a shutdown bullpen, smart baserunning, and an offense ready to leave its September slide in the past, the Tribe has every reason to believe it can prove the doubters wrong.
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