Chicago White Sox: Offseason Plan for Staying the Course
The Chicago White Sox will have to get creative this winter if they hope to compete in 2017 by building around the existing core of talent. Will Jerry Reinsdorf and company spend the money necessary to bring the White Sox back into relevance?
Last week I made the case for a White Sox rebuild, but not everyone believes that the Chicago White Sox should rebuild or would rebuild given the mold of the team’s front office. So while the sports world seemingly forgets the White Sox’s existence this week, I figured I would put together an offseason plan that would work for the White Sox if in fact they plan to stay the course and build around the existing talent.
Keep in mind that this plan will include no trade scenarios, only the retention or dismissal of current players as well as a plan for free agency this winter. I’m not going to set a budget, but I will try to remain as close as I can to the 2016 Opening Day payroll for the sake of keeping things realistically obtainable.
The first part of the offseason process is the exclusive period after the World Series and before the start of free gency, when teams have a period of time to make offers to players with renewable contracts as well as arbitration eligible players. The White Sox have nine players that are arbitration eligible this offseason, with most of them being a no-brainer on whether to re-sign or walk away from. The salary projections are based on projected salaries by MLB Trade Rumors.
Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie return to the south side in 2017 for a total of roughly $18.6 million, while the Avisail Garcia experiment comes to an end in Chicago. J.B. Shuck was given his shot at being an everyday player in 2016 with the injury to Austin Jackson, and failed miserably. Shuck gets non-tendered by the White Sox as well.
Dan Jennings was excellent in an increased role in the White Sox bullpen in 2016; he will be back and have a similar role in the back-end of the White Sox bullpen in 2017. Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam battled injuries often in 2016, but will be retained for a total of roughly $1.8 Million, while Daniel Webb is non-tendered, marking the end of his White Sox tenure.
The 2016-2017 free agent market is, as I have stated often recently, very thin to say the least. The White Sox will have a difficult time addressing all of their needs via free agency, but here are some options that I believe can work for the pale hose.
Matt Wieters (Catcher)
I lobbied for the White Sox to pursue Matt Wieters last winter before they went the bargain route with the platoon of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro, which as we all know failed miserably and lived up to the old adage of “you get what you pay for” in 2016.
Wieters is again hitting the open market this offseason, with the Orioles unlikely to offer him a qualifying offer of around $17.2 million. The 30-year-old catcher will likely command a deal in the neighborhood of four years, $64 million, especially with Wilson Ramos taking a significant hit to his value with his ACL injury in September. Ramos is slated for a mid-May return, and that is being very optimistic in regards to a 255-pound catcher returning from an ACL injury.
Wieters would fill the White Sox catcher role, with Omar Narvaez as a solid back-up option, probably even allowing Wieters to spend some days as the team’s designated hitter in an effort to keep his legs fresh for the duration of the season.
Predicted Contract: 4 years, $64 Million ($16 million/year)
Jeremy Hellickson (Starting Pitcher)
29-year old right-hander Jeremy Hellickson would be an ideal choice in the White Sox’s quest to shore up the starting rotation this offseason. Hellickson posted a 12-10 record with a 3.71 ERA on a pretty bad Philadelphia Phillies team in 2016.
A former Rookie of the Year Award winner, Hellickson will likely deny a qualifying offer by the Phillies, as he has voiced his desire for a multi-year deal moving forward even if that means finding it outside of Philadelphia.
The White Sox need starting pitching if they want to go the route of competing in 2017 by building around the current core group of players. Hellickson would likely assume the fourth spot in the rotation behind Carlos Rodon, forcing James Shields into a bullpen role in 2017. Yes, I’m aware that the White Sox are on the hook for roughly $20 million over the next two years with Shields, but they proved last season that they are not afraid to pay someone to walk away from the club.
If the White Sox are to be taken seriously in regard to competing in 2017, signing Hellickson and eliminating Shields from the rotation is a must.
Predicted Contract: 3 years, $26.5 Million ($8.5 million/year)
Edwin Encarnacion (First Base/Designated Hitter)
I thought long and hard about how to address the holes in center field and designated hitter given the thin free agent market this winter. I came to the conclusion that there are no viable center fielders in free agency and while there are a few corner outfielders that may work, it would come at the price of sliding Adam Eaton back into center field.
Eaton was an average center fielder who became a Gold Glove Award caliber right fielder in 2016, and I’m not ready to sacrifice his defensive capabilities in right field to bring in a Josh Reddick or a Michael Saunders to play right field. If the White Sox ventured down the Yoenis Cespedes trail and he played center field, they would be left with a weak defensive outfield.
So I went the route of signing a bona fide slugger to assume the designated hitter position, while relying on Charlie Tilson or another internal piece to occupy center field in 2017, keeping Eaton in right field where he belongs. Encarnacion brings major power numbers to a hitter-friendly ballpark, solidifying the designated hitter position and even providing Jose Abreu with a back-up at first base. But it will cost the White Sox to bring him to town, and teams like the Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will likely make a run at Encarnacion as well.
Predicted Contract: 3 years, $54 Million ($18 Million/year)
Austin Jackson (Center Field)
The White Sox would need to add another major league ready center fielder to couple with Charlie Tilson, as well as provide a back-up for Melky Cabrera and Eaton. Jackson hit .254 with no home runs and only 18 RBI in 2016 before his season ended early due to injury.
The White Sox could bring Jackson back for another run in 2017 at a bargain rate with his market value being even lower than it was last year. Jackson would give the White Sox some defensive and speed flexibility off of the bench.
Predicted Contract: 1 year, $2.5 Million
Here’s what the Opening Day 25-Man Roster would look like:
2017 White Sox 25-Man Roster Projection
Catcher: Matt Wieters, Omar Narvaez
First Base: Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion
Second Base: Brett Lawrie
Shortstop: Tim Anderson, Tyler Saladino
Third Base: Todd Frazier
Left Field: Melky Cabrera
Center Field: Charlie Tilson, Austin Jackson
Right Field: Adam Eaton
Starting Rotation: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Jeremy Hellickson, Miguel Gonzalez
Bullpen: James Shields, Michael Ynoa, Zack Burdi, Jake Petricka, Zach Putnam, Dan Jennings, Nate Jones, David Robertson
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Overall, I still personally have a hard time getting behind anything outside of a rebuild, largely due to being sucker-punched by the White Sox hype versus their actual performance over the past two years.
That being said, if the plan was to spend more money, build around the core talent and try to compete in 2017, then this plan could work if the players perform to expectations, and that’s a big if. With this plan the White Sox address the need for another starting pitcher, as well as addressing the catcher and designated hitter positions. As far as center field is concerned, they have to hope that Tilson and Jackson could at the minimum provide defensive support while supplying limited offensive production out of the nine-hole in the lineup.
If the White Sox were to make these moves, the 2017 Opening Day 25-man roster would have a salary of roughly $150 million, an increase of $35 million from 2016. If the White Sox want to be relevant in 2017, $35 million is a good number for what they will have to spend in free agency this winter.
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