Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs: Will Jake Arrieta Contract Top $200 Million?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:12 p.m. ET

Fansided, Tim Boyle/FanSided via Call to the Pen

Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta is set to become the top free agent next winter. Will his contract top $200 million?

Before the 2015 MLB season, the name Jake Arrieta was not one many were familiar with. The Chicago Cubs pitcher surely had talent, but much of it remained dormant in the early part of his career while with the Baltimore Orioles. The change of scenery did wonders for his game beginning in late 2013. As he approaches free agency, the first big contract of his career could be a huge one.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRagSports, the speculation is that Arrieta is aiming to top $200 million in his next contract. The Scott Boras client is coming off three very fantastic seasons including the amazing 2015 campaign where he won 22 games while posting a 1.77 ERA. This earned him a Cy Young Award and a spot among baseball's most elite pitchers.

Contract negotiations have been relatively quiet for someone of his caliber. Easily the best player with an expiring contract entering 2017, he will hit the open market at the right time to earn a big deal.

It's the following winter's free agent class that will feature the elite talent many expect to set new financial records. Rather than compete alongside the likes of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and maybe even Clayton Kershaw, Arrieta seems to have the 2017-2018 offseason locked up as his winter to earn a $200 million deal.

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The Cubs would certainly love to keep Arrieta. He has, without a doubt, been one of the key players for the last three seasons. Without him, the championship drought might still be in existence.

Fortunately, the Chicago Cubs will receive some salary relief next season. John Lackey, Miguel Montero, and Wade Davis will combine to make about $40 million this year. Only Davis really seems to have a chance at returning in 2018 and he makes up just $10 million of this total. This amount could easily go toward paying Arrieta in the first year of his deal. Many other young stars on the Cubs are arbitration eligible for several more years. Any argument that suggests they cannot afford Arrieta would seem false.

Right now there are four pitchers signed to deals worth $200+. This list includes Kershaw, David Price, Zack Greinke, and another one of Boras' clients, Max Scherzer. Although Arrieta's name can join them, he has not had as many successful seasons. This will work against him more than anything. Arrieta is already entering his age 31 season in 2017 which is typically the latter part of a pitcher's prime.

If not the Cubs, plenty of other teams could seek to sign Arrieta to a blockbuster deal topping $200 million. The New York Yankees could always get a jump-start on building the team into a powerhouse. A big market team like the Philadelphia Phillies could speed up their quest to relevancy again. After all, they only have about $14 million committed to the 2018 roster. Many other teams could decide to shell out the big dollars if it means adding an ace like Arrieta.

It appears that Arrieta has plenty of options in free agency. This should help drive up the price from the Cubs who know him best. A $200 million deal is more than possible and from multiple places. But is he worth it?

To fully answer this question it would depend on how Arrieta performs in 2017. Since he did fall back down to earth last year, Arrieta needs another phenomenal season to increase his value. A high walk rate, a league leading 16 wild pitches, and an ERA more than a run higher from 2015 all factor into his value. Another season like he had in 2016 and Arrieta may have to settle for a little less than $200 million.

In the meantime, there is no harm in reaching for the moon. Whether it's $200 million or well shy of the expected asking price, Arrieta should get the biggest payday this winter.