Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox rumors: CBA to determine free agent spending

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Until a new collective bargaining agreement confirms the luxury tax threshold for 2017, the Boston Red Sox will hold off on splashy free agent signings.

The Boston Red Sox have their eyes on a number of high profile free agents, but are in no rush to dive into that market.

The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, which throws a wrench into offseason planning. Commissioner Rob Manfred had hoped that a new agreement would be reached by the end of the World Series, but that didn’t happen and the sides remain at a stalemate.

The absence of a new CBA poses a problem for big market teams like the Red Sox because they are forced to weigh the risk of spending without knowing what the luxury tax threshold is. While many seem to be optimistic that the threshold will rise from the current $189 million mark, teams can’t be assured of how much higher it will go – if it goes up at all.

The Red Sox currently have a projected payroll of over $166 million, per spotrac.com. That figure doesn’t account for the arbitration salaries of their young talent, which could tack on at least another $23 million based on projections from MLB Trade Rumors. That puts them up against the current tax threshold already, so if they were to sign one of the top free agents to a lucrative deal they would be in danger of facing stiff penalties if the tax line doesn’t go up.

The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo expects the Red Sox to have interest in free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, but the new rules set in the next CBA will determine whether or not they pursue an expensive option of his caliber. If the tax line doesn’t go up as much as expected then they may be forced to settle for a better bargain like Carlos Beltran.

Previous reports indicated that the Red Sox aren’t looking to lock themselves into a full-time designated hitter to take over for the retiring David Ortiz, favoring targets that can field a position to aid in roster flexibility. That could make them shy away from a defensively challenged player like Encarnacion, if his rumored asking price doesn’t scare them off altogether.

Uncertainty over the new CBA could keep the top-tier free agents waiting a while for the market to develop. The Winter Meetings in early December have historically been used to finalize trades and free agent signings, but if a new CBA isn’t in place by that point then we could be looking at a quiet weekend at those meetings.

Red Sox fans are expecting president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to find a big bat to fill the void in the middle of the lineup left by Ortiz’s retirement. While that is on the team’s list of priorities, we’ll need to have some patience as we wait for the market to develop.

Even a team with the deep pockets of Boston’s ownership group will be hesitant to spend this winter until they are assured that the tax threshold will see a significant spike. If it doesn’t go up, fans may be disappointed with the moves the Red Sox make. Meanwhile, teams that aren’t near the tax line could take advantage by attempting to strike early to set the market while big market teams like Boston are stuck in a holding pattern.