Major League Baseball

Best pitching duels of the day: July 7

Published Jul. 7, 2015 10:35 a.m. ET

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by Brandon Warne

There isn’t a ton of top-end action on this baseball Tuesday, but there’s more than enough ace potential to keep you engaged. Check ’em out:

Johnny Cueto (CIN) vs. Max Scherzer (WAS)

7:05 p.m. ET

Here’s a matchup of the guy on the cusp of being paid facing off against the guy who is freshly paid. Cueto, who is consistently one of the toughest pitchers in all of baseball to hit, has put together another solid season—2.84 ERA, just under a strikeout per inning—despite some health woes, and appears to be headed to his fifth straight year with a sub-3.00 ERA. He’s twirling a virtually identical season to last year peripherals-wise, and may soon find himself in another uniform as a rental if the Reds opt to sell off down the stretch. It’s worth noting that the Reds are just seven games out of a potential playoff spot, but find themselves virtually tied with San Diego behind four other teams vying for one of those final two wild-card spots, as there’s no way they’re catching red-hot St. Louis, whom they trail by 16.5 games coming into Tuesday. Cueto’s summer will be an interesting one no matter how it shakes out, that much is for sure.

Scherzer has been untouchable over his last four starts, with the sole exception of a Ben Revere home run—seriously?—over that span. Well actually, he’s allowed four earned runs, but flirted with a couple no hitters and has put together this line in that time frame: 1.05 ERA, .277 OPS against and 42-to-1 K/BB ratio in those 34.1 innings. That walk came to Anthony Rendon in the first inning back on June 14, and he’s struck out the other 42 batters since without issuing another free pass. Only Zack Greinke—with a ridiculous 1.48 mark—has pitched to a lower ERA this season than Scherzer’s 1.82.

Warm-Up Tosses

Here’s a look at today’s “aces in isolation:” Jake Arrieta (opposed by St. Louis’ Tyler Lyons), Sonny Gray (New York’s Nathan Eovaldi), and Corey Kluber (Houston’s Vincent Velasquez). Arrieta’s on quite a three-start run, having allowed two earned runs in that 24 inning stretch. He’s struck out 21 and walked just two in that time frame, and has induced double-digit groundballs in all three games. That has put him at a career-high 50.9 percent groundball rate. Arrieta is one of 24 pitchers over the last calendar year with a sub-3.00 ERA, which is pretty elite company.

Gray has taken over the AL lead in ERA at 2.09, and is fifth across MLB overall. For him, the key this year has been a mix of well above average rates strikeouts- and groundouts-wise, slashing his walks and home runs, and a .259 BABIP that isn’t terribly far off his .272 career mark. Only Dallas Keuchel—whom he’s been battling for the ERA crown all year—and oddly enough, Minnesota’s Mike Pelfrey, have lower hard-hit percentages among qualified starters than Gray (22.1 percent). That would seem to make sense with his low BABIP, as he’s a consistently hard guy to square up on a regular basis.

Kluber has been human over his last few starts, sort of. Even though he’s allowed 10 earned runs over those 22 innings, he’s also struck out 30 batters and walked just six. This is a guy that has been fighting his own defense all year (thank you .341 BABIP), and is a prime candidate for a red-hot second half with the addition of Francisco Lindor to Kluber’s infield cadre. Keep in mind, Kluber at his best is a groundball wizard, and will lean heavily on Lindor to help him in that respect. Kluber is a huge second-half trade target if you’re a fantasy player.

Tyson Ross versus Francisco Liriano is a tangle of guys who are quite similar despite throwing with opposite hands. Both are of the strikeouts plus grounders ilk, and both have struggled with control in their careers. Each pitcher has more than a strikeout per inning with a groundball rate exceeding 50 percent—Ross’ is actually over 60!—but where the Padre falls short is walk rate, as he’s currently issuing an MLB-worst 4.7 per nine innings. It’s amazing he’s been as good as he’s been—3.63 ERA, 2.0 fWAR—in spite of that, but it’s a testament to how good the walks/strikeouts methodology can be.

Short Hops

Tampa Bay’s Matt Moore is making his second start since coming back from Tommy John surgery.

San Francisco’s Matt Cain is also making his second start since undergoing ankle and elbow surgeries in the last year. Both he and Moore had rough debuts.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, and Fangraphs.

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