Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves Analysis Of Dave O'Brien Timeline

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 3:31 p.m. ET

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Nov 2, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Salt River Rafters outfielder Dustin Peterson of the Atlanta Braves against the Scottsdale Scorpions during an Arizona Fall League game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The AJC’s beat writer for the Atlanta Braves, David O’Brien is in Arizona along with GM John Coppolella.  He had a twitter storm of comments yesterday that signal the team’s direction for the next couple of years.

While O’Brien has not yet written up these recent thoughts into a full piece for the Atlanta-Journal Constitution, he engaged in an unusually lengthy and informal Q&A with followers that actually shed some light on the near-future Atlanta Braves‘ philosophy.

As an introduction, I will inject an opinion up front:  I have typically been a fan first, which admittedly means that I would like to see the Braves competing better, faster, and with somewhat less regard to future complications as a result.

One example of that would be my annual advocacy for some big-name player to provide an instant boost to the team.  Some of these names over the years have included Jon Lester, Zack Greinke, Ryan Braun (a special circumstance… the same deal was ultimately made for Matt Kemp), and most recently Justin Verlander.

It will be clear in what follows that this is not the direction that John Coppolella seems headed.  Sure – he wants to build a perennial winner.  It seems his approach – or more to the point, my interpretation of that approach – from this point forward is now somehow different from prior expectations.

That is a bit of a disappointment and it does leave me with some concerns… as I will explain.

I state these things as a disclaimer, as I do not wish my remarks to completely discolor the information here:  O’Brien was kind in passing along the remarks that follow, and it is definitely worth a full discussion.

With that… let’s get started.

May 11, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of slot machines at the McCarran International Airport. So where’s the money? Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Faster I Go, The Further Behind I Get

First question:  “How long do you think it’ll take the Braves to get back to contending for the World Series?”

Related comment:  “I’m aware of that.  I meant that they’ll have to sign someone.  They aren’t going to draft their way into the World Series.”

Related comment:  “Not going to win without spending money.  Even with all those high draft picks.  Cubs won because of free agents.”

We are certainly well aware that this year’s free agent crop is not a good one.  Correspondingly, even if it was a shopper’s market, there are issues, because…

SunTrust Park is the locus of a new and larger revenue stream for the Braves, yet it still represents only a means to ‘keep up’ and not ‘get ahead’ of their rivals.  Let’s just take a quick future-scoping look at our NL East rivals, for example:

The Braves will be stuck with their TV deal – though it’s better than it was – for another decade.  This comment, though, is likely a very good analysis of the issue:

Why?  Because so many people are “unplugging” from cable and thus reducing the revenue stream to sports channels.  Thus, the timing could be such that the Braves will not be able to sniff deals like those of the Dodgers or Diamondbacks.

Thus the importance of a successful launch of SunTrust Park and Battery Atlanta.  It’s not only about money… it’s in fact entirely about money.

Sep 23, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Matt Wisler (37) looks on from the dugout during the fourth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

About the Pitching

Follow-up question: “Do you think it is more likely they will address this need via free agency or trade?”

Hence Charlie Morton as a likely candidate.  DOB also mentioned Rich Hill as a possible candidate in a later tweet… though not ‘probable’ as we’ll see.

However, this was the more interesting quote in response to a question (presumably about Rich Hill):

“Do you see [Hill] taking a short deal?  I think he’s going to get like 4/80 range.  I’d be happy seeing him at 2/50 range better.”

Next: Making Sense of This

Jun 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Atlanta Braves players observe a moment of silence during a pre-game ceremony honoring Muhammad Ali before their game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Ali passed away Friday 6-3-2016. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Interpretation:  Not Making a Big Splash

More from Tomahawk Take

All of this suggests that the Braves may be trying to walk the fine line here.

Meanwhile, that creates a situation in the majors that the Braves hope becomes quite competitive for a 4th or 5th starter position behind Teheran, Folty, Wisler, and (free agents to be signed later).

The comments may also say something about prospects such as Sims, Newcomb, Blair, Ellis, Whalen, et al.  If nothing else, this certainly should put them on notice:  get it together or enjoy your AAA career.

That also begs this question:  if you don’t believe they are the answers, then why not use them to trade for someone who might be?

Well, here are Coppy’s thoughts on that subject – which circles back to the payroll discussion:

So… Justin Verlander or equivalent?  Not going to happen.

I might also argue from this that it is going to be unlikely that Rich Hill signs with the Braves, either, as his price will likely approach (or perhaps exceed) that $20 million figure.

O’Brien left one small opening, via this question/comment:  “I think using some of their prospects to get a front line starter should be on the to-do list.”

Can the Braves Compete Like This?

Essentially it sounds like Coppolella is wanting to rely on his new-found offense and then ride a bunch of #3-5 starters with limited “true” shutdown pitching.

Meanwhile, we wait on Allard, Fried, Povse, Soroka, Weigel, Toussaint, and the 2016 draft class to emerge.

This approach is understandable, though it would be surprising to see all rise at one time, so it makes sense that additional ‘stop gaps’ will be needed along the way.

Taken together, this information leave me believing that there might not be a playoff contending team in the next couple of years… even as the club might be able to take advantage of a weak-ish division.

That’s the disappointing part of what I’m hearing.

Sure:  things could change.  But Coppolella has been a straight shooter on topics like this – certainly less cagey in his comments than Frank Wren was.  That does makes one wonder where that available cash will be spent, for we had been led to believe that the checks would be written starting in 2017.

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