Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves 2017 Under the Radar Pitcher Options

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The free agent market is bereft of quality starting pitching yet that’s what GM John Coppolella seeks. It’s time to look at under the radar options the 2017 Atlanta Braves.

There’s been much discussion here and elsewhere about how the Atlanta Braves will find and sign the starters they want. Most of it centers around big names like Justin Verlander we discussed so often his name automatically links when I type it.

In our heart of hearts Braves fans know – or should know – Coppy isn’t going to break the bank on an aging star, no matter how good his resume may be. This week Mark Bowman suggested that the Braves might go after knucklballer R. A. Dickey (Twitter link) perhaps giving us a better idea of what’s churning in the secret data center called Coppy’s brain.

candid shot of John Coppolella’s mind at work after the season ended pic.twitter.com/gDdmo4774J

— Chief_Fred (@FredEOwens) October 30, 2016

We can’t actually do that – or can we BWaaahahahahahahaha – but we can look back on what’s been done and attempt to divine what might happen.

Indicators

When this rebuild began we saw our newly appointed Atlanta Braves GM grab former top prospects whose progress had been delayed by injury or those who have fallen from favor in their organizations. Those arms are moving up through the system and looking pretty good for 2018 onward. Could we see something similar in the way he fills the gaps this off-season? Why not?

I’ve found four pitchers that those profiles and all but one are young and have the potential to be long-term (three years or more) assets.

Who are these candidates? I thought you’d never ask…

Apr 12, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez (37) delivers a pitch during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Henderson Alvarez (RHP – sign)

Henderson Alvarez is a 26-year-old (27 in April) is 6’, 205lb, RHP drafted by signed by the Blue Jays in 2006 as an international free agent. He made ten starts for Toronto in 2011 and 31 in 2012 posting a 4.52 ERA, 4.87 FIP and 1.363 WHIP. When the Jays and Marlins traded teams – okay half their teams – in 2013 he became a Marlin.

(Injury data from Pro Sports Transactions)

After Missing the first half of 2013 with shoulder inflammation Alvarez returned in July to make 17 starts spanning 102 2/3 IP while posting with a 3.59 ERA, 3.18 FIP and 1.140 WHIP while striking out 111 and walking 33 (3 intentionally).

The 2014 season was a breakout year for Alvarez. He made 30 starts for Miami posting a 2.65 ERA, 3.58 FIP and 1.235 WHIP in 187 IP. Those numbers earned him a trip to the All Star Game and a twelfth place finish in the Cy Young voting. On the down side his right shoulder barked again sending him to the 15 day DL in August.

The Marlins liked him enough to sign him to a one year $4M deal in January of 2015 but he made only four starts throwing 22 inning before the shoulder sidelined him again. Surgeons repaired his rotator cuff and cleaned up the joint on July first and he didn’t pitch again that year.

It’s not surprising he was unable to pitch very well, it takes a shoulder at least a year to regain strength. If you’re looking for positives to take from his brief minor league outings they come in the form of 25 strikeouts in those 22+ innings with only eight walks. It would seem that he has control but we have no velocity data to go with that so there’s really no way gauge what went on.

Rebound Candidate

The Marlin’s nontendered Alvarez in December and the Athletics signed him to a one year $4.25M deal in January. He started the season on the DL and made only ten minor league starts totaling 33 innings before the season ended. The A’s outrighted Alvarez after the season but he refused assignment and became a free agent.

All of that says he’ll be inexpensive and looking for a place to prove he can pitch. That said, readers here know my feeling about shoulder injuries; they always come back and a shoulder is never as good as it was before.

On the other hand, Alvarez is an experienced major league arm who should be back to full strength – or as close as he’ll get – this year. The Atlanta Braves commitment would be only one year so there’s little to lose and a lot to gain.

When healthy Alvarez pitched to a career 3.80 ERA, 1.288 WHIP 563 IP, He also averaged a quality start rate over 50% and generated a 55% ground ball rate and just a touch under 12% HR/FB rate.

Data from Fangraphs

GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB
2.26	20.7%	55.0%	24.4%	7.9%	11.9%
Pull%	Cent%	Oppo%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
39.9%	36.3%	23.8%	16.1%	54.7%	29.1%

Next: Another Former D'Backs 1st Rounder?

Apr 9, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics team photographer Michael Zagaris is reflected in the sunglasses of Oakland Athletics pitcher Jarrod Parker as the two talk during the game against the Texas Rangers at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Jarrod Parker (RHP – sign)

Jarrod Parker is another former first round draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks, this time it’s the 2008 draft when he was ninth overall. From 2008 through 2012 he was a fixture on the top 50 prospect lists of Baseball America and Baseball prospectus. In 2012 MLBPipeline agreed making him the 26th overall prospect in baseball.

He made his major league debut in 2011 making just one start throwing 5 2/3 innings against the Dodgers. That December the D’Backs traded him along with Ryan Cook and Collin Cowgill to the Oakland Athletics for Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill and some cash.

Parker made 32 starts in 2013 throwing 197 innings while posting a 3.97 ERA, 4.40 FIP and 1.223 WHIP striking out 134 and walking 63, two intentionally. The 2014 season looked like it would be his breakout year but his elbow had different ideas and on March 24th Dr. Andrews replaced his UCL.

Injuries

(Injury data from Pro Sports Transactions )

In May 2015 Parker fractured his right elbow ending his TJ rehab for 2014. The Athletics signed him to an $850K contract for 2016 but on March 13th he fractured his right elbow again and according to ESPN, “. . . revised UCL did not need repairing, and the avulsed medial epicondyle fracture was cleaned up and repaired.” Parker didn’t throw a pitch in an actual game this year and the A’s outrighted him after the season but he elected free agency.

Parker split ground balls and fly balls pretty evenly in is major league starts. He’s not a big strikeout guy but kept the ball in the park. Brooks Baseball describes the 2013 version of Parker as having abandoned his slider and working primarily off a sinker/ change combination with his change being his best swing and miss pitch. He mixed in an average four seam fastball (in the video below he touches 93) that lacked movement and a curve they describe a 12 to 6 breaker thrown extremely hard and lacking depth.

That sounds like a very hittable pitcher but it looks as if the way he mixes pitches keeps batters off-balance. The video is just over four minutes and I recommend silencing the annoying background music.

Parker would have to prove himself healthy so a minor league deal with the Atlanta Braves and an invite to spring training looks ideal. If he regains form and improves his secondary pitches he could be a nice, inexpensive addition

Data from Fangraphs

GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB
1.04	19.3%	4120.0%	39.5%	7.9%	10.5%
Pull%	Cent%	Oppo%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%
40.9%	38.9%	20.2%	15.5%	55.9%	28.7%

Scott Feldman (RHP – sign)

The Rangers selected Scott Feldman in 30th round of the 2003 draft and made his major league debut in 2005 as a reliever. In the 2007 he moved his arm slot up to 3/4 and spring of 2008 he changed his release point. His manager at that time was new Braves third base coach Ron Washington.

Washington told T.R. Sullivan that the change was significant because “It makes his ball heavier, and his movement a little more pronounced.” That season Washington moved Feldman into the rotation and over the next three seasons the 6’7” righty averaged 26 starts and 161 IP with a 4.87 ERA.

The 2009 season began with Feldman in the bullpen and ended as his breakout year, good enough in fact that he was opening day starter in 2010. In August however he went on the DL with a bone bruise to his right knee. He eventually had microfracture surgery on the knee and started 2011 in the minors.

The Rangers tried to outright him in July but he refused assignment and they activated him rather than let him become a free agent. That turned out to be a good idea.

Feldman pitched will for them down the stretch and in the playoffs.

In 2012 he worked as a swingman/long man for the Rangers but couldn’t reproduce his 2010 results.

Cubs – Astros – Jays

He signed as a free agent with the Cubs in 2013 and along with Steve Clevenger moved to Baltimore that July in return for a struggling Jake Arrieta and reliever Pedro Strop. In 2014 he joined the Astros as a free agent and had a nice year throwing 180 1/3 innings in 29 starts with a 3.74 ERA.

The 2015 season saw more of the same from Feldman in spite of an interruption to have a torn meniscus in his right knee repaired. The knee had been an issue from the beginning but he tried to pitch through the discomfort. The result was a ten start stretch with a 4.80 ERA.

After the surgery Feldman returned to finish strong for the Astros making eight starts with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.241 WHIP. This season saw him back in the long-man/ swingman role for Houston and in July they traded him to Toronto for a minor league arm (Lupe Chavez).

Toronto also used him from the bullpen where he posted a 8.40 ERA in 15 IP. The underlying stats however show that he wasn’t as bad as that ERA suggests. Opposing hitter BAbip’d him at a .420 rate, his FIP was 4.21 and his K rate 8.4, the latter likely a sample size aberration as he’s never been a strikeout guy.

The video is from a start earlier this season against the Royals.

Feldman works with a sinker (91 mph), cutter (89 mph), curve (75 mph) mix showing an occasional change as well. Brooks Baseball says “His cutter is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs . . .His sinker has less arm-side run than typical and results in somewhat more fly balls (than expected)” and that his curve has “sweeping glove-side movement.”

A healthy Feldman would be inexpensive, swallow innings at the back of the rotation and thrive on a solid infield defense like the one the Braves project to have next year.

Hector Santiago (LHP-Trade)

The White Sox selected Hector Santiago as their 30th round pick in the 2006 draft. After making his debut with Chicago in 2012 he made 23 starts and 11 relief appearance for them in 2013 posting a 3.56 ERA, 4.44 FIP and 1.403 WHIP in 149 innings. In December of that year the Diamondbacks, Angels and White Sox made a trade that resulted in Santiago becoming a member of the Angels.

Over the next two and a half seasons Santiago was a fixture in the Angels rotation. He made 24 starts and six relief appearances in 2014 throwing 127 1/3 innings while posting a 3.75 ERA. 4.29 FIP, 1.359 WHIP, striking out 108 and walking 53.

He followed that with 32 starts and one relief spot in 2015 posting a 3.59 ERA, 4.77 FIP and 1.256 WHIP in 180 2/3 IP. He earned an All Star selection that season and finished with 162 strikeout and 71 walks; he also led the AL in homers allowed with 29.

He began 2016 locked into Mike Sioscia’s rotation in Anaheim and made 22 starts throwing 120 2/3 innings with a respectable 4.25 ERA. At the deadline however the Halos sent Santiago along with minor leaguer Alan Busenitz to the Twins for Rickey Nolasco and Alex Myer and some cash.

A New Home

The Twins seemed to have won that deal as Nolasco and Myer were both failed acquisitions and Santiago was a solid if not spectacular rotation piece with a year of low-cost control. Santiago continued to take the ball every fifth day making 11 starts but managing only 61 1/3 innings and posting a 5.58 ERA that matched his 5.82 FIP.

He finished the year with another inauspicious league lead; he walked 79 batters, more than any other AL pitcher. It’s likely that a new front office staff might want to move on from that apparent bad decision as they start their rebuild.

Brooks Baseball tells us that last season Santiago “. . .relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92 mph) and Change using a Circle Change grip (83 mph), also mixing in a Curve (76 mph) and Slider (82 mph). He also rarely throws a Cutter (87 mph).” When drafted Santiago also threw a screwball but that seems to have dropped by the wayside since 2013. That’s apity because it’s a very effective weapon.

The 6’, 215 pound lefty turns 29 this December has never been on the disabled list and only missed one career start (bruised thumb). MLBTR projects that his final arbitration year will cost $8.6M. While I respect their accuracy with such things that would be a $3.6M raise for a guy whose overall numbers weren’t good. I’d expect it to be near $7 to 7.5 M but what do I know?

Here’s some 2015 video of Santiago on an eight strikeout night.

If the Twins would part with him for a guy like Chris Ellis I’d do that swap in a heartbeat. The Atlanta Braves really need a good left next year.

That’s A Wrap

I know these aren’t the names most Atlanta Braves fans want to see but Coppy’s made it pretty clear he isn’t going to empty the locker in a trade and undo all the work he’s done so far. That means no Justin Verlander, Chris Sale or Zack Greinke; sorry.

If it’s a trade he’ll want it to be a small one and the Santiago deal would fit that. I know some will try to stretch that into Santiago and Brian Dozier for some package but for many reasons I don’t see that as realistic.

We’ve heard Coppy say that he wants tow pitchers and that’s been rumored to be stretched to three. The R.A. Dickey rumor also makes sense if he actually decides to play.

As well as his post season experience, Dickey takes the ball every fifth day, keeps his team in the game and has a strong work ethic. The latter traits are shared by the pitchers I included here.

Alvarez and Feldman are ground ball pitchers and Parker kept the ball in the park well before his injuries. Santiago isn’t either of those but he eats innings and his mix of stuff – if refined – makes him an interesting addition.

None of these guys are sexy additions, but looking at the free agent market it seems to make sense to sign guys that fit the Braves mold. The other advantage is that aside from Santiago’s arbitration year they look like being inexpensive adds.

While Feldman is clearly a stop-gap – as Dickey would be – if Alvarez or Parker regain form or Santiago finds the on switch, they could be a real steal. We know how Hart and Coppy like that kind of player don’t we?