Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
What can we expect from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first year of a new front office regime and manager? Here's a preview of their 2017 season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks were a trendy pick to make the postseason in 2016. After all, they had a blockbuster offseason in which they signed Zack Greinke to a monster six-year, $206.5 million deal and also swung a trade for promising young Braves starter Shelby Miller. In a seemingly open NL West, it seemed that perhaps they could even steal the division crown and make some noise in October.
As we all know, that didn't happen. Far from it, the D-Backs finished with a 69-93 record, 22 games behind in their division and 18 out of a Wild Card spot. To put it bluntly, it was a disaster, thanks in no small part to the disappointing performances of those two big additions to the rotation.
Unsurprisingly, Arizona underwent a front office overhaul during the offseason. With new decision-making leadership in place, the club wasn't quite as active as a year ago, but still made a few significant moves that will shape the upcoming season.
Barring an unexpected reversal, the D-Backs probably aren't looking at a postseason bid in 2017. However, they can still take some positive steps forward and lay the groundwork for better times ahead. To preview this year's version of the team, we'll look at the notable player arrivals and departures, and then take a gaze into the crystal ball to determine just what kind of campaign they have in store.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Key Offseason Additions
To be honest, the Diamondbacks' most important offseason additions were to their front office and on-field leadership. The organization hired former Red Sox GM Mike Hazen to be its new general manager. Hazen proceeded to take with him another familiar face from Boston, bringing aboard former Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo as manager.
Though Dave Dombrowski pretty much ran the show after joining the franchise in August of 2015, Hazen drew praise for his work in Boston. Likewise, Lovullo was viewed as a hot-ticket managerial candidate after guiding the Red Sox to a 28-21 record in late 2015 while John Farrell received cancer treatment. Both should work well together and make the team their own.
In their most prominent offseason personnel move, the D-Backs traded Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis to the Mariners in exchange for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Walker hasn't always lived up to the hype in his four-year major league career, but the right-hander is still just 24 and under team control through 2020. He posted a 4.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 3.22 K/BB ratio in 134.1 innings for Seattle last year. The D-Backs will hope he can blossom for them, but Arizona is traditionally not the kindest location to pitchers.
The 23-year-old Marte brings another young, controllable player into the D-Backs' fold. He slashed .259/.287/.323 with a homer, 33 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 119 games last season, his second in the big leagues. A change of scenery to the desert could help Marte's bat bounce back, and he'll be in the mix at shortstop with Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings.
The Diamondbacks also signed Fernando Rodney to a one-year deal to be their closer. He'll be 40 years old later this month and has typically been unpredictable even at the best of times. In 2016, Rodney got off to a dominant start with the Padres, going a perfect 17-for-17 in save chances with a 0.31 ERA in 28.2 frames. He imploded after a midseason trade to the Marlins, though, sputtering to a 5.89 ERA over 36.2 innings. Which Rodney will Arizona get? It's hard to say, but with 261 career saves, he's certainly no stranger to the ninth inning.
Veteran catchers Chris Iannetta and Jeff Mathis were added on one- and two-year deals, respectively. The D-Backs will be interested to see whether Chris Herrmann continues swinging the bat well (.845 OPS with six homers in 166 PA in 2016), but Mathis and Iannetta – while not exactly remarkable – bring plenty of experience to the mix.
The D-Backs signed seven-year veteran Daniel Descalso to a one-year deal with a club option, providing some additional infield depth. Descalso has experience at all four infield positions and has even made a few appearances in the corner outfield spots.
It's also perhaps worth mentioning A.J. Pollock as an "addition" considering he appeared in only 12 games for the D-Backs toward the end of last season. In an All-Star 2015 campaign, the outfielder hit for a .315/.367/.498 line with 20 home runs, 76 RBI and 39 steals. If he's healthy, getting that kind of production back into an already robust lineup would be huge.
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Key Offseason Subtractions
While the Diamondbacks have high expectations for Taijuan Walker, infielder Jean Segura was a significant loss for them in the deal. He led the National League with 203 hits last season, slashing .319/.368/.499 with 20 home runs, 64 RBI and 33 stolen bases, his best season at the plate since his 2012 debut. Though still just 26, the D-Backs may have been looking ahead to Segura's free agency following the 2018 campaign. They'll miss his speed and bat out of the leadoff spot, but if A.J. Pollock indeed comes back strong, the offense should be able to shrug it off.
Arizona chose not to tender a contract to catcher Welington Castillo, who later signed with the Orioles. Castillo gave the D-Backs solid offensive production for a backstop in 2016, hitting .264/.322/.423 with 14 homers and 68 RBI in 113 contests. It's hard to envision any of the team's current group of catchers matching those numbers this year, but they could certainly provide better defense. The D-Backs lineup is strong enough that they can afford to see Castillo go.
The Diamondbacks designated outfielder Peter O'Brien for assignment in December, and he was later picked up by the Royals. The 26-year-old O'Brien never made much of an impact for Arizona, appearing in just 36 games over the past two seasons. However, the club will likely wonder what could have been with O'Brien's prodigious power. He swatted 136 long balls over five minor league seasons, peaking at 34 in 2014 between the Yankees' and D-Backs' High-A and Double-A squads. As with many sluggers, strikeouts have been an issue with O'Brien: He fanned 32 times in 79 major league plate appearances.
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
2017 Season Outlook
So what can we expect from this Diamondbacks team in 2017? Much of that will likely depend on whether Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller can bounce back, and if so, how much. Miller was a nightmare last year, generating an unsightly 6.15 ERA in 20 starts and earning a minor league demotion at one point. If he can look more like the pitcher of his 2015 campaign with the Braves (or his stellar 2013 rookie season with the Cardinals), it might dull the pain of losing Dansby Swanson in that trade. Just little.
Greinke managed a 4.37 ERA in 26 outings in 2016, his highest mark since 2005 (his second year in the big leagues) and a far cry from his MLB-leading 1.66 ERA for the Dodgers the year before. If he stays healthy, he shouldn't have much trouble improving on that number. But the real question is whether or not Greinke's days as one of the game's elite starting pitchers are over. From 2009 (his Cy Young year) to 2015, he put up a 2.92 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB. That might be too optimistic moving forward, especially in an Arizona climate, but if he can be closer to that pitcher than the 2016 version, it should have a noticeable impact on the team's performance.
The D-Backs rotation posted an ugly 5.19 ERA last year, second-worst in the league. It shouldn't be hard to improve on that, especially if Greinke and Miller rebound and Taijuan Walker has a good first season in Arizona. They will also look for Robbie Ray's impressive strikeout ability (11.3 K/9 in 2016) to translate to better overall success. Pitching is still unlikely to be a strength of this team, though.
More from Call to the Pen
Fortunately, the D-Backs still have one of baseball's more productive offenses at their disposal. They finished 10th in MLB in 2016 with 752 runs scored and 11th with a .752 OPS. The lineup will once again be led by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who remains one of the game's most overlooked stars.
Cuban left fielder Yasmany Tomas led the squad with 31 home runs last year, showing real signs of getting comfortable in MLB. But does a 25 percent HR/FB rate suggest a regression is coming?
Arizona will also hope that third baseman Jake Lamb can avoid last season's second-half swoon (.197/.283/.380) after putting up a .291/.371/.612 line with 20 homers and 61 RBI before the All-Star break.
A.J. Pollock should provide an all-around boost if he's healthy and produces close to his 2015 levels. It's worth keeping an eye on fellow outfielder David Peralta as well. He was limited to 48 games last year but slashed .312/.371/.522 with an NL-leading 10 triples in 2015.
However, even by the most bullish estimations, this simply isn't a team that will compete for a playoff berth in 2017. In the division, the Dodgers and Giants are still miles ahead of them, and the Rockies are likely better by a sizable margin, too. The D-Backs could once again be battling with the Padres to stay out of the NL West cellar.
The Diamondbacks can still use the upcoming season to begin moving in the right direction. After winning 69 games last year, somewhere around 75 victories should be a fair goal for them in 2017. As a stretch, they can perhaps see how long they can flirt with the .500 mark.
How do you see the D-Backs faring this year? Sound off in the comment section below.
