Major League Baseball

AL Wild Card Game breakdown: A's vs. Royals

Published Sep. 29, 2014 7:33 a.m. ET

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The Kansas City Royals host the Oakland Athletics Tuesday night in the American League Wild Card Game (8:07 p.m. ET, TBS). The winner advances to face the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series, starting Thursday.

The marquee matchup pits Royals ace James Shields against A's ace Jon Lester. Who has the edge? Let's break it down:

1. Starting lineup

The Royals and A's were the bottom two teams in September run scoring among the 10 that qualified for the postseason, so we shouldn't expect a 10-9 game Tuesday night.

As has been discussed at length, the A's lost their offensive identity when they dealt Yoenis Cespedes to Boston in the Jon Lester trade. But the ineffectiveness of catalyst Coco Crisp has been an equally significant factor; Crisp has an on-base percentage of just .272 since the All-Star break. Derek Norris and Brandon Moss have regressed in the second half, as well.

The Royals still lack middle-of-the-lineup thunder, but they've benefited from the emergence of complementary players: Nori Aoki, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar are hitting as well now as they have all year, and Eric Hosmer had a strong September after returning from the disabled list. The Royals also have multiple stolen-base threats, which should benefit them during the postseason.

EDGE: Royals

2. Starting pitcher

General managers around baseball will watch this matchup closely: Jon Lester vs. James Shields, both of whom will be free agents after the season. Based on the starting pitchers alone, this could have a Game 7 feel. Lester, with a 2.11 ERA in 13 career postseason games, was acquired to pitch in a winner-take-all game for Oakland ... but Billy Beane probably thought that would happen in the ALCS, not on the final day of September. Meanwhile, Shields is back in the playoffs for the first time since back-to-back disappointments against Texas in 2010 and 2011 while he was with the Rays. When the Royals traded highly touted prospects for Shields two years ago, they imagined him pitching at Kauffman Stadium in the postseason. They're about to watch that unfold, but the opposing starter is the more proven October performer.

EDGE: A's

3. Bullpen

Oakland actually posted a lower bullpen ERA this season than Kansas City, so the Royals don't have the distinct advantage in the late innings that one might assume. The A's have two very good right-handed setup men, Dan Otero and Luke Gregerson, and veteran Ryan Cook has reemerged after an inconsistent first half. Both closers in the AL Wild Card Game -- Oakland's Sean Doolittle and Kansas City's Greg Holland -- have been sidelined with injuries in the second half, casting some uncertainty on Tuesday's ninth inning. Still, the Royals have a clear roadmap for success. If James Shields gets through six innings with a lead or tie, manager Ned Yost can turn the ball over to arguably the best 7-8-9 trio in baseball: Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Holland.

EDGE: Royals

4. Bench

The chief contribution from the Royals' bench is speed. Because of additional roster flexibility in the wild-card round, Ned Yost could have as many as two base-stealing threats in reserve for the late innings: Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore. Josh Willingham and Raul Ibanez have hit for power during their careers, but neither has contributed much lately. The A's have a more balanced bench because of their numerous platoons, but so many of the hitters are mired in slumps that their depth didn't help much in September. Against the right-handed Shields -- and the right-handed-dominant bullpen -- Oakland manager Bob Melvin may be somewhat limited in the maneuvering he's able to do, since lefties Adam Dunn, Stephen Vogt and Brandon Moss all may start.

EDGE: Even

5. Intangibles

As we saw in Pittsburgh last year, the pent-up passion of a long-starved fan base can have a tangible effect on postseason baseball. Kauffman Stadium is set to host a playoff game for the first time in 29 years, and the atmosphere could be as electrifying as any we'll witness during the upcoming month. Will October veteran James Shields benefit from the energy, or will the intensity cause the Royals' still-developing hitters to over-swing against a veteran starter? Meanwhile, the A's could relish the opportunity to be looked upon as an underdog after heavy expectations nearly contributed to a complete self-destruction down the stretch. In the end, it's always better to play at home in a winner-take-all game.

EDGE: Royals

PREDICTION: Royals 2, A's 1

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