Major League Baseball

A post-trade deadline look at playoff races

Published Aug. 2, 2009 4:12 p.m. ET

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Bob Klapisch

The dizzying pace of 11th-hour deals has left us with a serious case of the whirlies — not to mention a renewed appreciation for those who stayed cool at the deadline (the Blue Jays) and those who didn't (the Indians.).

With less than 60 games to go, it's time to examine the pennant races. Here's a look at the coming wars, broken down by division.

American League

East

The Yankees still have a theoretical advantage over the Red Sox, despite Theo Epstein's magnificent pickup of Victor Martinez. The Bombers, however, figure to score more runs and all but closed the gap last month in starting pitching (4.11 ERA to Boston's 4.06).

One caveat, though: The Yankees are one injury away from seeing their rotation collapse. One talent evaluator says, "Their depth is close to zero" unless you think Kei Igawa is an emergency option (he's not).

The Yankees believe they can win about 75 percent of the games started by CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett down the stretch and are counting on Joba Chamberlain to anchor the middle of the rotation. Chamberlain is on a recent hot streak (two earned runs allowed in his last 21 1/3 innings), but Sergio Mitre is a disaster in the No. 5 spot. He'll force GM Brian Cashman to scouring the waiver wire, or maybe even the junk yard.

The Sox, of course, have several constants in their favor — Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, Jon Papelbon and that 8-0 record against the Yankees so far. That counts for plenty. But the two teams will face each other seven times this month in what should be a litmus test of the division's power rankings. The Rays just don't seem to have the same magic this summer; in their hearts, they probably realize now that trading Edwin Jackson to the Tigers was a mistake.

Central

This is where the AL's most hotly contested battle will be waged, and it's still too close to call. One noncompeting general manager says, "It could come down to when (Jake) Peavy comes back. He could be the difference."

Until then, the nod goes to the Twins, simply because they'll head into the race's last lap with the division's two best players — Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer — and have closer Joe Nathan in his prime. The Twins will get help from Orlando Cabrera, bolstering an offense that was already scoring more runs and had a higher OPS than the White Sox and Tigers.

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