You would be pretty crazy not to pick Jason Day to win the Masters
Pro golfers, for the most part, don't get nervous teeing off. It's part of their job. They play 20-30 golf tournaments a year, equating to over 100 rounds of golf. When they get to the first tee, it's time to work.
But at Augusta National, on Masters Thursday, things are different. Adam Scott has mentioned that it's the only time these days he feels jittery on a first tee and for Scott, and 88 other players, those nerves begin on Thursday, the first leg of a marathon weekend, with such high hopes to win one of golf's great tournaments.
We've been rolling out rankings the last month of players we think have the best shot at winning a green jacket come Sunday, and while most of the names have been fairly consistent (and predictable), it's finally time to give our final top 10 for 2016.
Let's take a look at the list, as we sit hours, not days, away from the ceremonial first tee shot and what looks to be a great week at Augusta (odds courtesy of golfodds.com).
10. Henrik Stenson (20-to-1)
At some point Stenson is going to close out a tournament and win, right?
Dating back to the BMW International Open in late June, Stenson has six seconds and three thirds in 19 starts, so the game is there, it's just about closing things out for the 40-year-old.
In terms of talent, Stenson is right up there with Rickie Fowler and Dustin Johnson in the "best player without a major" conversation, and despite never finishing in the top 10 at the Masters, Stenson has had a solid run the last three starts at Augusta, finishing T-18, T-14 and T-19.
9. Louis Oosthuizen (30-to-1)
He missed the cut last week in Houston, a little different than his third-place finish there in 2012 the week before he made it to a playoff at Augusta with Bubba Watson.
Still, Louis has been incredible this year, winning in Perth and finishing T-7 at the Valspar and second at the WGC-Dell Match Play. He will be looking for a second top-10 at the Masters.
8. Adam Scott (12-to-1)
The shine has worn off a little on Scott since his back-to-back wins a month ago, but I still think Scott has a legit chance to win a second green jacket.
The added weapon for Scott this week? Steve Williams will be back on the bag, a professional who knows Augusta National as well as any caddie out there. Williams gives Scott even more confidence when he's carrying the bag, and I think that will help him make a run at another Masters win.
7. Phil Mickelson (15-to-1)
If consistency has been the one thing holding Mickelson back from winning, it was on full display a week ago in Houston.
On Moving Day at the Golf Club of Houston, Mickelson birdied three of his first five holes, only to give them all back with a triple-bogey on the sixth. On a day when Phil made six birdies, it was only a 1-under round of golf, leaving him basically where he started instead of racing up the leaderboard.
The good news for Phil is he is leading the PGA Tour in scoring average and is eighth on Tour in birdie average, something he will need a lot of this week at Augusta if he's going to be posting another roller-coaster style scorecard.
The one thing that I've continued to preach about Phil as he's gotten older is the added focus he has around majors. He has prepared his season for this week in particular, and his success at Augusta is next to none in the field.
He knows he can win this week if he sticks to his game plan, it's just avoiding the big numbers for the 45-year-old if he wants to add a fourth green jacket to his trophy case.
6. Rory McIlroy (8-to-1)
Simply put, he's too good not to have in the top 10, yet I feel top five isn't appropriate for Rory right now. He's been solid but not sharp, good enough to be in the hunt but not good enough to win in 2016.
The combination of fairways missed (he's 145th on Tour in driving accuracy) and struggles with the putter (94th in strokes gained putting) could make for a long week for most, but I still think McIlroy's talent keeps him afloat and in the conversation come Sunday.
5. Rickie Fowler (15-to-1)
Another week, another top-10 for Fowler, who now has finished 10th or better in seven of his last eight worldwide stroke play starts.
If you're looking at someone to break out and win a major, look no further than Fowler and the man ranked just ahead of him. Considering the way he can roll the rock, Fowler should be a staple on these rankings at the Masters for years to come.
4. Dustin Johnson (15-to-1)
Why the big jump for DJ this week in the rankings? Because the man is riding a very hot putter right now, and that is bad news for the rest of the field.
In Houston last week, Johnson was No. 1 in the field in strokes gained putting on his way to a third-place finish, his third top-five in his last four starts.
Johnson has finished in the top-seven in four of his last six major starts, including a T-6 at Augusta a year ago (his first ever top-10 at the Masters), and with a confident flat-stick in the bag this week, it could finally be the week DJ joins the pool of major winners.
3. Jordan Spieth (8-to-1)
I've been back and forth on how I feel Spieth will play this week, but I've decided to let history be my guide on the defending champion.
In two Masters starts, Spieth has finished no worse than second, and I think for whatever reason, he gets to Augusta and his comfort level goes through the roof.
He knows Augusta, he knows how to win majors, and I think he feels that if it's a dog fight come Sunday, it benefits him more than anyone else in the field.
Jordan Spieth has his green jacket, and despite a frustrating last couple of months on the PGA Tour, he knows this is a great golf course for his game and a great opportunity to return to the top of the golfing world with another major title.
2. Bubba Watson (10-to-1)
A two-time Masters champion (both in even years), Bubba is coming in with a ton of confidence considering how he's played in stroke play events this season.
A win at the Northern Trust, followed by a second-place finish at the Cadillac Championship has Watson in impressive form as he attempts to join Phil Mickelson, Nick Faldo, Gary Player, Sam Snead and Jimmy Demaret as three-time Masters champions. Only guys named Nicklaus, Palmer and Woods have more.
Bubba can overpower this left-hand-friendly golf course as he did in both his previous wins, with the only knock on Watson being that outside of his two victories, he has no other top-10s at Augusta National.
I think Bubba finishes in the top-10 this week, and I expect the way he's played this season to be in the hunt come Sunday afternoon.
1. Jason Day (7-to-1)
My pick to win the Masters, which is the equivalent of going chalk in your March Madness bracket (for your sake, I hope you didn't go chalk in your March Madness bracket).
Day leapfrogged both Spieth and Rory in odds to go into the Masters the favorite with his impressive play the last two tournaments, but really, it's been his play since St. Andrews that has him the odds-on man to snag a second major.
In Day's past 13 worldwide starts, he has six wins, all at big events (Canadian Open, PGA Championship, Barclays, BMW Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational and the WGC-Dell Match Play), and it's his complete game that has made him a must-follow each week.
Day is 20th in driving distance, third in strokes gained putting, 12th in overall strokes gained and 10th in birdie average. In 324 holes played this season, Day has three-putted just six times, and has yet to miss a putt all season from inside four feet.
I've said it a few times now, but I would be more surprised if Day wasn't the champion come Sunday. That's how great he's been playing. It's his Masters to lose, and I think even his B- game could put him in contention with a chance to win on Sunday.
