The wave of parity washing over golf makes this the most wide-open US Open since the Tiger Woods era began in the mid-1990s.
The bookmakers think world No. 1 Luke Donald is going to win his first major — not a bad choice given the sharpness of his game and the consistency he’s shown this year — but the truth is there are no clear-cut favorites at Congressional Country Club.
“Maybe 30, 40 players,” reigning PGA champion Martin Kaymer replied on Monday when asked how many in the field had a realistic chance of winning.
A quarter or so of the field may not sound like a big pool, but consider that since 1997 the favorites were, well, Tiger Woods, who was sometimes, preposterously, at the same odds as the field.
But since injuries and a sex scandal conspired to torpedo his game, the past 10 majors have been won by different players, seven of them first-time winners.
That stands in stark contrast to the period from the final major of 1999 (the PGA Championship) to the second of 2008 (the US Open). Woods won 13 of those 35 events, and 10 others were won by the game’s elite: Phil Mickelson (three), Retief Goosen (two), Vijay Singh (two), Ernie Els (one), Padraig Harrington (one) and Angel Cabrera (one).
That left only 12 other majors for everyone else to divvy up.
“Probably 10, 15 years ago there were only 10 or 12 players (who could win), but now it's so spread out,” Kaymer said.
“It's so open. It can be a young guy. It can be (Ryo) Ishikawa, it can be Rory McIlroy or it can be David Toms.”
Or it could be Lee Westwood.
The Englishman ended Woods’ reign as world No. 1 late last year and has been engaged in a tug-of-war over the top ranking with the two men he’ll play with during the first two rounds here, Kaymer and Donald.
He’s been at the top of his game for the past few years but, at 38, he knows time’s running out to fill the biggest hole in his résumé.
Westwood played his first US Open at Congressional in 1997, finishing in the top 20, but he really wasn't a threat at the majors – he’d had just one top-five finish – until the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines.
He played with Woods on the last day and heartbreakingly left short a 15-footer on the 72nd hole to join the eventual champion and Rocco Mediate in a playoff. Since then, he's had a great opportunity at Turnberry two years ago only to falter again late, and he finished third at the '09 PGA Championship. He held the third-round lead going into last year’s Masters, before falling to Mickelson, and he was second again at last year’s British Open.
Some could look at all those close calls and decide that winning a major wasn’t meant to be; Westwood is choosing to be positive.
“If you're a good player, you're going to have disappointments because you're going to be in contention a lot, aren't you?” he said Monday.
Golfers at his level lose far more often than they win, so he reasons that he just has to keep giving himself a chance.
“You try and look at it on the bright side, and I think I've probably managed to do that over the last few years,” he said.
“That's why a second place at Turnberry; I followed it up with a third place at the PGA – at Hazeltine – and then eight months after that a second place in the Masters again, and keep getting into contention, and then again at the Open last year at St. Andrews, second again. I seem to be responding well and coming out of it positively, even though obviously I'd love to win one.”
Westwood calls the US Open the “toughest test of all four majors.” Congressional, playing at 7,574 yards with deep rough and bouncy, hard greens, certainly will live up to that billing.
“You start missing fairways, even in the semi (cut of rough), and it's impossible to control your ball. The greens are very firm out there. It's only Monday,” he said.
“I can only imagine they're going to keep firming up.”
Although he’s never been a great chipper of the ball, he’s dependable with the driver and accurate with the irons. He's a good putter, too. Beyond that, his confidence is up coming off two wins and an unlucky playoff loss to Donald in the European Tour’s flagship event at Wentworth.
“I'm hitting the ball very well,” he said.
“I'm driving it pretty long and straight. My iron shots are fairly crisp, which is good coming into a US Open.
“My preparation has gone well. I've played well just recently, really since the Masters, after a slowish start to the year.
“My confidence is pretty high, and looking forward to this week.”
And what if he finds himself in the hunt on the back nine on Sunday?
“It's a challenge that I've got to try and overcome and just do a little bit better at the right times,” he said. “There's no secret ingredient or recipe to it. I keep getting myself in position, and it's just a case of finishing it off.”
