Fantasy Golf: DraftKings Tour Championship
Sep 27, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; General view of the tournament trophy after the final round of the Tour Championship by Coca-Cola at East Lake Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports Fantasy Golf
This week’s Fantasy Golf PGA event will take us to the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The Tour Championship is not a rotating tournament and has been held here for over a decade. The course will play at 7328 yards and a par 70. This isn’t a cut and dry bombers vs. accuracy course, or vise versa. Since the field is limited to 30 golfers every year, we have less data to observe when coming to a course fit conclusion. I’d slightly weight it in favor of accurate golfers, but would not be limiting my exposure to only accurate golfers. Long iron play should be looked at, as there are some longer par 4’s and par 5’s. I’ll look to have a mixture of both, and attack the tournament from an ownership perspective rather than course fit.
This is the final leg of the Fed Ex Cup and will only feature 30 golfers. There is no cut, so I’ll be avoiding cash games and targeting GPPs. Given the lack of a cut and a condensed field, it’s much more difficult to find an edge, making it one of the least skillful tournaments, from a DFS perspective. However, hopefully there should be some newer NFL players that take a crack at PGA DFS for the first time.
With the 30 man field, you’ll see a lot of lineups trending the way of stud’s and dud’s lineup construction. At this point, any low-priced “dud’s” are all solid players and have name recognition value. I think targeting players in the mid range would be a wise approach to taking down a tournament.
Key Metrics
Greens in Regulation (GIR) – This represents the percentage of holes in which a golfer reaches the green in at least two strokes less than par.
Course History – How a golfer has performed on this course in the last five years
Par 4 Efficiency – How a golfer performs on par 4’s
Recent form – This goes for any data, but specifically looking at top ten finishes and missed cuts, over the past five to eight weeks.
Birdie Scoring – Field and course adjusted birdie scoring
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Sep 9, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Jason Day watches his tee shot during the second round Friday at the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
Top Tier
Before I get into players I’ll be targeting in this range, I want to touch on game theory as I think it should be more heavily weighted in this particular contest. I think Dustin Johnson will be the highest owned golfer from this range, and right fully so. However, this will provides us with a great opportunity to pivot and be contrarian. Would I suggest a full fade of DJ? God no, but I’ll pivoting to guys who may be lower owned (Rory Mcilroy, Jordan Spieth).
Dustin Johnson ($11,700), Rory Mcilroy ($11,100), Jordan Spieth ($10,600), Jason Day ($10,300)
All of these golfers make for great plays and I’ll have exposure to them all, but as mentioned, I think determining ownership will be more important, and maybe more realistic and profitable, then trying to determine their performance. They all have excellent course history, each having a top five finish within the last two years. Rory stands out as a golfer that will be less owned due to his recent inconsistency, but is tremendous in DraftKings scoring when he’s on.
The biggest decision to be made will be how to handle Jason Day’s back injury. He’s struggle with back issues before and was forced to withdraw two weeks ago. Obviously we’ll have to monitor this with a watchful eye, but the more intriguing question is how will this affect his ownership? He’s severely under priced at $10,300 so will players roster him for the value, or be fearful of the injury? In a non cut event, a withdraw is even worse than normal, but the upside from an ownership standpoint could be worth it.
Adam Scott ($10,100)
Scott is coming into this final tournament, red-hot. In his last three outings, he’s finished fourth in all three. Scott’s putting ability drops him in birdie scoring metrics, but I think his long irons could be useful on the longer holes this weekend. Scott finished 9th at this same tournament last year, and I’d be looking for another top ten finish this year.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)
Aug 21, 2016; Greensboro, NC, USA; Hideki Matsuyama (right) and Scott Langley chat as they leave the second tee during the final round of the 2016 Wyndham Championship. at Sedgefield Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Hideki Matsuyama is the reverse of Adam Scott in terms of playing style, but I think his ability to make birdies and to make birdie streaks will be highly valuable this week. Matsuyama’s putting ability provides him with the upside needed to take down this tournament. If he’s hitting fairways accurately (he’s hit 63.6% of fairways this year), he’ll be in a good position to post a top finish.
Bubba Watson ($8,400)
Bubba Watson is another golfer that stands out for his birdie making ability. His length provides him with a useful tool to post top scores. He’s under priced again, but this could result in some elevated ownership. Bubba has good course history, with two top 5 finishes in the last three years.
Other Players I’ll Have Exposure to: Brant Snedeker, Russell Knox, Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar
Aug 6, 2016; Cromwell, CT, USA; Daniel Berger tees off on the first hole during the third round of the 2016 Travelers Championship golf tournament at TPC River Highlands. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Mid Tier
Daniel Berger ($7,000)
Daniel Berger is the best value on the slate and is therefore, going to be very popular. Berger has been consistently hitting and exceeding value. He comes in with a 10th place finish at the BMW Championship and could be trending in the right direction. He also has the course history to compliment his recent form, with a 12th place finish here last year. Berger will be one of the higher owned players that I’ll still have more exposure to, than that of the field.
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Charl Schwartzel ($7,700)
I can’t get enough Charl Schwartzel in my lineups this week. Schwartzel is coming in with a fourth place finish at the BMW Championship and will have a good shot at another high finish this week. I really like Schwartzel for this GIR scoring and his birdie scoring. He’s hit 69.1% of GIR and thus has led him to many birdie opportunities.
Other Players I’ll Have Exposure to: Justin Thomas, Roberto Castro, Gary Woodland, J.B. Holmes
Bottom Tier
Emiliano Grillo ($6,900)
Another significantly under priced player, Emiliano Grillo could see a bump in ownership this week. However, like Berger, I’ll be overexposed to Grillo in this spot. Grillo is a more accurate driver, where he’s hit 67.9 % of fairways and 69.3 % of GIR. Grillo’s birdie making ability will make him even more valuable for DraftKings scoring.
Ryan Moore ($6,800)
If you’re looking for the course history pick this week, it’s Ryan Moore. Moore has two top ten finishes in his only two appearances at this course, with a third place finish in 2012, and a ninth place finish in 2010. Other than a rough outing at the BMW Championship, Moore was playing well with a few top ten finishes. I won’t have much exposure to Moore, but if you’re weighting course history or driving accuracy, he should be considered.
Others Players I’ll have Exposure to: Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner
Best of luck this weekend!
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