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There were lots of bells, lots of whistles and lots of hoopla, but in the end, nothing happened.
The Top 10 stayed exactly the same, and while Boise State closed the gap a bit on TCU, overall, it still doesn’t matter. Oregon is No. 1, Auburn is No. 2, and that’s not going to change as long as those two keep on winning. The only thing that might matter is that TCU is still ahead of Boise State, because the BCS has to take the top non-AQ team and doesn’t have to take any others, so while the Horned Frogs would be off to Pasadena if Oregon ended up in the BCS Championship Game, the Broncos could get hosed over for Stanford, Nebraska or any of the other at-large teams.
Most importantly, remember the computer formulas will change wildly once the season is over. The computers take the entire season into account, so what you see right now might not be anywhere near the same in a few weeks. Basically, whatever you see in the human polls, that’s what you’ll probably see in the BCS rankings, so Wisconsin, who’s the top-ranked one-loss team according to the Coaches’ and Harris polls, will probably be ranked higher once everything is all said and done, if it wins out.
Going forward, the big question is this: Would Oregon or Auburn still play for the national title if it loses? Oregon, probably not. The computers wouldn’t help the cause, and the humans would probably bail if the Ducks lost to Arizona or Oregon State. However, Auburn is a different story. If the Tigers lose to Alabama respectably, but go on to beat South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, they might end up getting voted ahead of an unbeaten TCU and Boise State. Oregon doesn’t have the conference title game to get one last statement.
Here’s what would happen if Auburn loses the Iron Bowl and if Oregon, TCU and Boise State win out: The Tigers would drop to three, possibly even four, for one week. As long as they didn’t get blown out, they’d stay within range. And then, the human pollsters, who have no interest in seeing Boise State/TCU vs. Oregon for the national title, no matter what they might say publicly, would almost certainly vote Auburn No. 2 if there’s a decisive win in the SEC Championship Game. And then it becomes Game On for the at-large spots.
Interesting aspects from the current rankings:
The big winners: TCU (staying No. 3), the ACC (Miami moving in at No. 24, Florida State moving in at No. 25), Boise State (cutting TCU's lead and with Nevada moving to 18th)
The big losers: Utah (14th to 23rd), Iowa (13th to 20th), Arizona (18th to 22nd)
1. Oregon; Score: .9753
The Ducks increased their lead and are firmly No. 1. They're not even a threat to budge out of a top two spot, however, no computer formula has them higher than two and one has them at four. One loss knocks them out of the national title, while Auburn might get a bit of a break if it loses to Alabama.
Predicted wins: Arizona, at Oregon State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Game
Toughest remaining tests: Arizona, at Oregon State
2. Auburn; Score: .9687
Auburn gets all the respect from the computers, and that's critical. With five No. 1 spots and a No. 3, the computers won't let Auburn fall too far even if there's a stumble against Alabama. A loss to South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game is another story, but the Tigers could still play for the national title with a close loss at Alabama and a good win over the Gamecocks if the humans don't want to see Boise State or TCU in the big show.
Predicted wins: South Carolina (SEC Championship)
Predicted losses: at Alabama
Predicted final record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Game
Toughest remaining tests: at Alabama, South Carolina
3. TCU; Score: .8966
TCU jacked up its lead over Boise State last week, and now it's almost all erased. The Horned Frogs didn't get any help from Utah's gack at Notre Dame, and the close call at home to San Diego State was a killer. To have any shot of moving into the top 2, it's going to take a few miracles and some bad performances by Boise State. The Broncos are about to make some noise, and that'll kill TCU's remaining lead.
Predicted wins: at New Mexico
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: Fiesta
Toughest remaining tests: None
4. Boise State; Score: .8634
Last week, Boise State was screwed, but this week, it couldn't be in a better spot, at least being outside of the top 2. TCU can't do anything to impress, while the Broncos get national spotlight games against Fresno State and Nevada to show off. With two impressive wins, the Broncos will blow past the Horned Frogs and into a No. 3 spot.
Predicted wins: Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: Rose
Toughest remaining tests: Fresno State, at Nevada
5. LSU; Score: .8243
LSU is in an interesting situation. The Tigers are ranked sixth in the human polls, but because the computers love them, with a No. 3 overall ranking, they're on the doorstep to big things. And with a great showdown at Arkansas to finish up the season, they could end up with a top 3 spot with a little bit of luck. Can they get into the top 2? No, but they can come really, really close.
Predicted wins: Ole Miss
Predicted losses: at Arkansas
Predicted final record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Outback
Toughest remaining tests: at Arkansas
6. Stanford; Score: .7553
Stanford is getting a ton of credit from the computers, considering the schedule isn't all that great. Beating Arizona was great, and getting by Arizona State is fine, but the Cardinal is mostly known for losing to Oregon. Even so, the No. 6 ranking is strong enough to possibly earn an at-large BCS bid, even though the lack of a huge fan base might be a killer in the selection process.
Predicted wins: at California, Oregon State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Alamo
Toughest remaining tests: at California, Oregon State
7. Wisconsin; Score: .7258
What, 83 points doesn't impress the computers? Actually, no. The highest ranked one-loss team, according to the humans, is a pathetic 12th in the computer formulas, even with wins over Ohio State and Iowa. All that matters, realistically, considering the Badgers aren't going to play in the BCS Championship Game, is that they're higher than Ohio State and Michigan State. The three-way Big Ten tie-breaker for the Rose Bowl is the BCS ranking, and being two spots ahead of Ohio State matters.
Predicted wins: at Michigan, Northwestern
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Rose
Toughest remaining tests: at Michigan, Northwestern
8. Nebraska; Score: .7203
How bad does that Texas loss at home look now? The Huskers are limping toward the finish line, and they're firmly entrenched at No. 8 with little hope for upward mobility without a big, splashy Big 12 title win. The BCS Championship Game is out of range, so the key is to start winning more impressively to have a shot at an at-large slot if the Big 12 title doesn't happen.
Predicted wins: at Texas A&M, Colorado
Predicted losses: Big 12 Championship Game
Predicted final record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Cotton
Toughest remaining tests: at Texas A&M
9. Ohio State; Score: .6674
Where's the respect? The one-time No. 1 team in the land lost to a great Wisconsin team on the road, and that's been the only hiccup in any way. This might actually be the most talented team in America, but the computers don't care with a No. 13 ranking. However, the spotlight game against Iowa will raise the profile before the Michigan showdown.
Predicted wins: at Iowa, Michigan
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Orange
Toughest remaining tests: at Michigan
10. Oklahoma State; Score: .6601
No, Oregon, THIS is the most fun team in America. The high-flying Oklahoma State offense has yet to be stopped, and it's three games away from playing in the Fiesta Bowl. The computers are big fans with a No. 6 ranking, but the humans are skeptical, with the Harris voters putting OSU 12th and the coaches hanging a No. 10 ranking. It doesn't matter. The Cowboys control their Big 12 title destiny, and beating Oklahoma along the way would be doubly sweet.
Predicted wins: at Kansas
Predicted losses: Oklahoma
Predicted final record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Alamo
Toughest remaining tests: Oklahoma
In range:
11. Alabama; Score: 0.6151
12. Michigan State; Score: 0.6066
13. Arkansas; Score: 0.5133
14. Oklahoma; Score: 0.4728
15. Missouri; Score: 0.4563
16. Virginia Tech; Score: 0.3676
17. South Carolina; Score: 0.3244
18. Nevada; Score: 0.3016
19. Texas A&M; Score: 0.2788
20. Iowa; Score: 0.2190
