Why Ohio State will beat Michigan and win the Big Ten title in 2016

Published Nov. 15, 2016 3:47 p.m. ET

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Ten years ago this fall, 11-0 Ohio State and 11-0 Michigan met in Columbus as the nation’s No. 1 and 2 teams in one of the sport’s biggest regular-season games of the past two decades. The Buckeyes won 42-39, from which point the programs went in two very different directions.

Ohio State played in the next two national championship games and, after a brief tattoo-driven detour, went on to win the first College Football Playoff. Michigan endured one of the worst stretches in program history, caught a brief respite with a 2011 Sugar Bowl berth, then plunged back into mediocrity.

Finally, a decade later, both programs are on solid ground. Ohio State has gone 50-4 in four seasons under Urban Meyer. Michigan improved from 5-7 to 10-3 in Jim Harbaugh’s first season, and should be improved even more in Year 2.

But as has been the case for 11 of the past 12 seasons, the Buckeyes remain ahead.

Despite losing a staggering 16 starters -- 12 of them taken in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft -- I’m picking Ohio State to edge Michigan for the Big Ten East and go on to beat Iowa for the conference title.

To be clear, the Wolverines, by far the more experienced team, will start out stronger. While it’s not known yet whether John O’Korn or Wilton Speight will start at quarterback, Michigan should be able to reliably run the football with tailback De’Veon Smith, fullback Henry Poggi and a veteran O-line. The D-line could be the Big Ten’s best, and LB Jabril Peppers and CB Jourdan Lewis are stars.

With five straight home games to start, followed by Rutgers and Ilinois, I fully expect Michigan to be 7-0 heading into an Oct. 29 grudge match with Michigan State.

Ohio State, on the other hand, takes its young team to Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Penn State over the first seven weeks. Junior quarterback J.T. Barrett will be a steadying hand, but it may take a while for the offensive line to gel and a host of new defensive starters to communicate well. The Buckeyes may trip up a couple of times.

But by late in the season, as inexperience becomes less of a factor, talent often prevails above all -- and lord knows the Buckeyes are talented. Guys like redshirt freshman RB Mike Weber, sophomore DE Sam Hubbard, sophomore CBs Marshon Lattimore and Denzel Ward and sophomore S Malik Hooker will emerge as big-time playmakers sooner than later. And we already know DE Tyquan Lewis, MLB Raekwon McMillan and CB Gareon Conley can play at a high level.

It’s not hard to see a scenario where Ohio State struggles early but peaks in time for its all-important last two games at Michigan State and, on Nov. 26, at home against Michigan. In fact, we’ve seen Meyer’s teams follow that script many times before. His 2006 and ’08 Florida teams and 2014 Ohio State team that won national championships all looked ugly at times early (and all lost games) before turning dominant by season’s end.

This Ohio State team is not likely to win the national championship -- at 11-2, as I’m projecting, it won’t likely even make the playoff -- but winning a Big Ten championship after blowing last year’s to Michigan State would be deemed quite the successful season given the circumstances.

And it would mark yet another year of heartbreak for Michigan.

NEXT: STEWART MANDEL'S BIG TEN PREDICTIONS FOR 2016