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Sep 19, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; General view of the line of scrimmage as Stanford Cardinal long snapper C.j. Keller (68) prepares to snap the ball against the Southern California Trojans at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The USC vs Stanford rivalry continues Saturday in Palo Alto, with the Trojans looking to get revenge for a pair of 2015 losses the Cardinal.
Pac-12 openers can easily be overvalued, but with USC having already been dealt a demoralizing loss to Alabama, and a Utah looming next on a short week, Saturday’s tilt with the Cardinal bears some significance.
The Trojans opened the week as 6.5-point underdogs, but the line has steady crept up in favor of No. 7 Stanford. Can USC pull off a win? What are the biggest factors heading into the game? Here’s five things you need to know…
Third Game in 364 Days
Given their stature as in-state rivals and an arm-twisting of the Pac-12 that mandates they play each other annually, USC and Stanford know each other quite well. They’ve met 94 times previously, including twice last season.
The last of which is fresh in the minds of the Trojans, as Christian McCaffery totaled 461 all-purpose yards on the way to the Cardinal’s 41-22 win in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Yet despite all of that familiarity, the circumstances of last year’s games call into question exactly how much they matter as a precursor to this year.
Yes, McCaffrey is back. Yes, the Trojans have JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adoree’ Jackson and Ronald Jones still. But these are different teams.
In the Week 3 meeting at the Coliseum, USC was coached by Steve Sarkisian and met a Stanford team pre-McCaffreymania.
The December rematch, despite being Clay Helton’s first game as a full-time head coach, saw the Trojans meet the Cardinal without key players on defense like middle linebacker Cameron Smith.
Plus, gone is defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox –who was fired almost single-handedly by McCaffrey– and in is Clancy Pendergast. The same Pendergast’s whose lore at USC is tied to his defense’s winning performance against highly ranked Stanford in 2013, despite using just 12 players.
All told, Saturday’s game is a classic pseudo-sibling rivalry full of familiarity, but stocked with variety.
Sep 26, 2015; Tempe, AZ, USA; Southern California Trojans defensive tackle Noah Jefferson (91) reacts following the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jefferson Likely Out, Tell In
USC’s defensive line is rapidly shrinking, as the writing on the wall is that Noah Jefferson will miss his second-straight game after suffering an AC sprain in his elbow against Alabama.
Jefferson was labeled as a 50/50 decision early in the week, but always seemed a bit optimistic. Wednesday seemed more bleak.
“Noah is still down with [his] shoulder not feeling week,” Helton said after practice. “He’ll probably be out for this game.”
Without Jefferson, the Trojans will rely on a defensive line of Stevie Tu’ikolovatu, Rasheem Green and Malik Dorton, and could revert back to a minimal-substituted lineup similar to the 2013 Stanford game for Clancy Pendergast’s defense.
Then, it was Dion Bailey and Antwaun Woods substituting and twisting USC’s defense from nickel to a more traditional base 3-4. That’s similar to what the Trojans have done thus far, with three safeties in Marvell Tell, Chris Hawkins and Leon McQuay seeing plenty of action together.
However, Tell had a scare in the win over Utah State, as he was put into USC’s concussion protocol. Despite being testing over baseline, the sophomore was held out of Tuesday’s practice before getting the green light on Wednesday.
Had Tell not been able to go, the Trojans’ defense of Christian McCaffrey could’ve been drastically altered, along with the nickel rotation.
Sep 6, 2014; Stanford, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans tackle Chad Wheeler (72) celebrates after a 53-yard field goal by Andre Heidari (not pictured) in the fourth quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. USC defeated Stanford 13-10. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
USC O-Line vs. Stanford D-Line
Over the last decade, Stanford has been known for a strong front seven that takes pride in getting after the quarterback. Despite the loss of key players like 2015 team captain Blake Martinez, the Cardinal were right back in their usual ways to start the season, recording 10 tackles for loss against Kansas State.
Only four teams have had more TFLs against a Power 5 team through two weeks of the season, and it was just the third time Stanford reached double digits since the start of last season.
Leading the way was outside linebacker Peter Kalambayi, who recorded three stops in the backfield, including 2.5 sacks.
That’s alarming for USC, who rank among the worst teams in the country in terms of tackle for loss prevention, allowing 18 through two games, including nine to both Alabama and Utah State.
Plus, for the third week in a row, the Trojans have a lack of cohesiveness in game preparation, with the re-installing of Chad Wheeler as the full-time starting left tackle after a bout with plantar fasciitis, along with Khaliel Rodgers’ move back to center following Toa Lobendahn’s torn ACL.
Put it all together and Saturday’s game will likely come down to how well the Trojans’ offensive line can hold up, especially with rookie quarterback Max Browne taking snaps and a potential keep-the-ball-away-from-McCaffrey game plan.
Dec 5, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey (5) carries the ball against the Southern California Trojans during the Pac-12 Conference football championship game at Levi
Christian McCaffrey
Stanford playmaker Christian McCaffrey probably should’ve won the Heisman Trophy last year, after breaking Barry Sanders’ NCAA record for all-purpose yards in a season. It puts a ton of eyes on the running back in 2016, especially after dominating performances against USC and Iowa.
Other than just his explosive and allusive style of running, McCaffrey’s versatility as a running back and receiver make him a daunting challenge to stop, as the Trojans learned the hard way last year.
“When you’ve got the combination of both, you’ve got to make a decision of what you’re going to do,” Helton said Wednesday. “Are you going to load the box, play man coverage and put him in 1-on-1 situations? Or are you going to play back and play a more zone coverage, and all of a sudden, they’re running the ball with those big linemen?”
If the rhetorical questions sound familiar, it seems as though Helton is speaking from experience. McCaffrey’s 461-yard night against USC in December saw the Trojans’ defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox try everything but the right thing to stop him.
Should history repeat, the chances of Helton getting his first win against Stanford are extremely slim. So how will they slow him down this time?
The onus is on Clancy Pendergast to find a way. They’ve started the mission by using true freshman USC wide receiver Velus Jones as the McCaffrey impersonator in practice.
September 2, 2016; Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal head coach David Shaw (right) instructs quarterback Ryan Burns (17) against the Kansas State Wildcats during the fourth quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Brand New Quarterbacks
Since Stanford beat No. 1 USC in 2007, the series has gone back and forth in a drama-filled rivalry that has focused heavily on quarterback play.
The Cardinal’s big upset came at the hands of John David Booty’s broken finger. In the years following, Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley developed a gun-slinging rivalry in shootouts, before Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan split a pair of hard-fought meetings.
But Saturday will feature a pair of fourth-year players who have yet to suit up in the series: Max Browne and Ryan Burns.
More from Reign of Troy
Both play a similar role: be what stirs the drink, but essentially just serve as a the funnel to talented weapons on offense.
In Week 1, Burns quarterback was a solid 14-of-18 for 156 yards for Stanford, while the simple game plan was to get the ball in the hands of his Heisman runner-up as much as possible. McCaffrey got touches on 58 percent of Stanford’s plays.
Against USC however, the Trojans will be looking to force Burns’ hand elsewhere, giving the rookie quarterback his first true test.
On the other side of the field, Browne is the Trojans’ mid-field quarterback and has already faced a heap of adversity, getting knocked around by No. 1 Alabama. Could that have built poise to use against a stout Stanford front?
We’ll have to wait and see.
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