Six potential BCS scenarios to mull over

Published Dec. 2, 2010 12:00 a.m. ET

Peter Schrager

In a college football season where just one (TCU) of the BCS standings' current top five teams was ranked in the top 10 of the AP's first Top 25 poll of the season, it's rather amazing that the BCS has actually ... well, pretty much, worked out perfectly.

Barring any stunning upsets this weekend, it appears as though No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Oregon — the two most dominant (and exciting) college football teams throughout the 2010 season — will square off in the BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 10th in Glendale, Ariz.

TCU, the lone remaining undefeated non-automatic qualifer team, will get one of the 10 available BCS bowl spots, too. And due to a quirky, one-year rule, the Horned Frogs would have a nationally televised Jan. 1 stage to silence their critics once and for all, playing in the school’s first-ever Rose Bowl.

With wins by Oregon and Auburn on Saturday, Stanford, a team most pundits feared would be on the outside of the BCS bubble looking in (not due to having an unworthy squad, but because of a fan base that likely wouldn’t travel thousands of miles and 100,000-deep across the country to see the Cardinal play in a bowl game), would be in, as well. As a top 4 ranked team in the BCS standings, Stanford now guarantees itself a place in the final BCS bowl picture.

The Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10 would all likely get two teams in, you’ve got your little guys out of Fort Worth in a big spot, and every one-loss team in the nation outside of Michigan State, Nevada, and Boise State would have their BCS moments in the spotlight.

Death to the BCS? Why kill it? On the surface, it seems like the system served everyone fairly well this year.

Hell, long live the BCS!

In truth, a playoff system would be better than what we’ve got now. We’d all be a lot more juiced up if following Saturday’s slate of games, there was an official NCAA Tournament Selection Show and an eight or 16-seed bracket revealed on Sunday, instead of the current BCS Selection Show that we’ll likely snooze through this weekend. A playoff, no matter how such a process were constructed, would be far more exciting — and certainly, a lot more definitive — than the nine-day, never-ending BCS bowl slate we currently have now.

But for all its warts, lumps, and onerous critics, the BCS is going to deliver the one game we’ve all wanted to see since October.

Unless, of course, Auburn, Oregon, or both teams lose their season finales on Saturday. Likely? No. But it’s certainly possible. Over the past twelve years, either the No. 1 or No. 2-ranked team in the nation has lost its final game of the season.

So, what happens if the Tigers or Ducks lose? Or, somehow, both? Well, then "it" officially hits the fan.

Let's play a little game of "What if" and lay out some possible scenarios.

Again, this is just one man’s opinion. But here’s how I’d see it all shaking out.

Scenario 1: Both Auburn and Oregon win on Saturday

What happens: All goes according to plan. Auburn and Oregon go head-to-head in what should make for the highest scoring BCS National Championship Game since the 2006 Texas-USC showdown that saw Vince Young and the Longhorns top Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and the Trojans 41-38 out in Pasadena.

The Bowls:
BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 2 Oregon
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big Ten champions) vs. TCU (Highest Non-AQ undefeated)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska/Oklahoma (Big 12 champions) vs. Stanford (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech/Florida State (ACC champions) vs. Connecticut/West Virginia/Pittsburgh (Big East champions)
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas (At-large) vs. Ohio State (At-large)

The only possible wrinkle in this scenario is if the Orange Bowl decides that they'd rather have Stanford — a team without a large traveling fan base — over Connecticut, who are in a “win and in” situation. The Orange Bowl has “dibs” over the Fiesta Bowl this year, and though I think they’d rather have WVU or Pittsburgh than the Andrew Luck-led Cardinal, I think they’d potentially rather have Jim Harbaugh’s team over the UConn Huskies playing in their first-ever BCS bowl game.

Scenario 2: Oregon wins and Auburn loses a close game on Saturday

What Happens: This is where things would get interesting. If Auburn and South Carolina play an all-time thriller down in Atlanta this weekend and The Ol' Ball Coach magically pulls off the upset in the final moments, things get a little tricky. Auburn, who would now be just another one-loss team without a conference title (see Ohio State, Stanford, Michigan State), has a large enough margin in the current BCS rankings over No. 3 TCU, that I think they’d actually still qualify for the BCS National Championship Game — even with a loss on Saturday. This may cause outrage and shock in both Fort Worth and Madison, but the way I see it — a one-loss Auburn Tigers team, as long as they’re not blown out on Saturday, would still get in. No team has played in a BCS National Championship Game without winning its own conference’s title since the 2003 Oklahoma Sooners, a squad that got waxed by Darren Sproles and Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, only to lose to LSU in the BCS National Championship Game a month later. The 2001 Nebraska Cornhuskers didn’t even win their division, let alone their conference, and made it to the title game. Not surprisingly, they were creamed by Miami in the BCS National Championship Game. There’s no rule in the current BCS guidelines — though many argue there should be — against a team playing for the BCS title without having won its own conference. To the shock and awe of many, I think if Auburn isn’t embarrassed on Saturday, it becomes the third team in BCS history to play for a national title without winning its own conference. Win or lose (small), Auburn's in.

The Bowls:
BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Auburn
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big Ten champions) vs. TCU (Highest Non-AQ undefeated)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska/Oklahoma (Big 12 champions) vs. Stanford (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech/Florida State (ACC champions) vs. Connecticut/West Virginia/Pittsburgh (Big East champions)
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina (SEC champions) vs. Ohio State (At-large)

The big losers in this scenario, of course, would be TCU — who, despite being undefeated on the year — wouldn’t be playing for a national title. The same outraged parties who came out to decry undefeated Utah being left out of the 2008 BCS National Championship Game while one-loss Oklahoma and one-loss Florida duked it out, would be upset this year. The other big losers? Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas Razorbacks, who’d lose their Sugar Bowl berth to Spurrier’s Gamecocks.

Scenario 3: Oregon wins and Auburn gets blown out on Saturday

What happens: If Auburn comes out and gets the doors blown off them by Marcus Lattimore and Co. on Saturday, it’s difficult to imagine the human voters or the computers rewarding the Tigers with a BCS National Championship Game berth. In this scenario, it seems as though TCU — who before last year’s Fiesta Bowl had not played in a January bowl game since 1959 — would be the first non-BCS conference team to play for a national title in the thirteen years of the BCS system. I see TCU getting the nod over a one-loss Big Ten champion Wisconsin squad, which could cause great dismay to the Gordon Gee crowd in the Midwest. Stanford would then take its natural place in the Rose Bowl, and Auburn would likely go the Orange Bowl to play against the Virginia Tech/Florida State winner.

The Bowls:
BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 TCU
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big Ten champions) vs. Stanford (Pac-10 runner-ups)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska/Oklahoma (Big 12 champions) vs. Connecticut/West Virginia/Pittsburgh (Big East champions)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech/Florida State (ACC champions) vs. Auburn (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina (SEC champions) vs. Ohio State (At-large)

The losers, again, would be Arkansas, who’d have no place in the BCS picture. Wisconsin fans — and Big Ten fans as a whole — would be peeved over TCU, without a real signature win on their resume, getting a shot at the national title over a one-loss Big Ten champion … but those are the breaks.

Scenario 4: Oregon loses to Oregon State in Corvallis and Auburn wins on Saturday

What happens: If Auburn wins or loses by a small margin, I think they’re in either way. If Oregon loses — by one point or 40 points — I think they’re out. TCU beat then No. 24 Oregon State rather handedly in their first game of the season. If the 5-6 Beavers were to beat the Ducks on Saturday, I don't see any way Oregon — with a loss to a team that undefeated TCU’s already beaten — could get in over the Horned Frogs. There are already quiet whispers now that outside of Stanford, Oregon hasn’t really beaten "anyone" this season. So Oregon, who'd still win the Pac-10 based on their victory over the Cardinal earlier this season, would go to the Rose Bowl, instead. Here’s how the rest would shake out:

The Bowls:
BCS National Championship Game: No.1 Auburn vs. No.2 TCU
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big Ten champions) vs. Oregon (Pac-10 champions)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska/Oklahoma (Big 12 champions) vs. Stanford (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech/Florida State (ACC champions) vs. Connecticut/West Virginia/Pittsburgh (Big East champions)
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas (At-large) vs. Ohio State (At-large)

The only losers, here, would be the Ducks. Instead of playing for a national title, they’d be going to the Rose Bowl. Not a terrible consolation prize, but it’s not a BCS title.

Scenario 5: Auburn loses by a small margin to South Carolina and Oregon loses to Oregon State

What happens: Again, with a close loss, I think Auburn still gets in, TCU takes the other BCS National Championship Game spot, and the chips fall as follows:

Scenario 6: Auburn gets blown out in the SEC Championship Game and Oregon loses to Oregon State in the Civil War

What happens: Deep breath, folks. Though this is the most unlikely of scenarios, it’s certainly possible. If both teams fall — and Auburn’s smoked by South Carolina — I don’t see either team playing for the national title. I also don’t think Stanford, the current No.4 — without a conference title, with a loss to Oregon, and no major out-of-conference wins in a down year in the Pac-10 — would get a stab. Oregon’s loss would ding Stanford’s computer rankings, too. So who would get the open spot? Hello, Wisconsin. The Badgers, who haven’t been to Pasadena in eleven years and have never won a national title, would play TCU in the BCS National Championship game. The rest? Let’s take a look.

The Bowls:
BCS National Championship Game: No. 1 TCU vs. No. 2 Wisconsin
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big Ten runner-ups) vs. Oregon (Pac-10 champions)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska/Oklahoma (Big 12 champions) vs. Stanford (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech/Florida State (ACC champions) vs. Auburn (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina (SEC champions) vs. Connecticut/West Virginia/Pittsburgh (Big East champions)

The losers? Again, it’s Arkansas on the outside looking in, but Stanford fans would be scratching their heads, too. By the natural pecking order and current BCS standings, Cardinal fans would expect they’d be next in line for a shot at the national title because of their current No. 4 ranking. In truth, though, the Oregon loss would hurt the Cardinal nearly as much as it would hurt the Ducks. They’d likely be leapfrogged by the Big Ten champion Badgers. The people who’d lose the most in this scenario, though? That’d be the fine folks of New Orleans and the Sugar Bowl. In a matter of hours, the Sugar Bowl would go from hosting two of the top traveling programs in the nation— Arkansas and Ohio State — into a South Carolina vs. Big East champion battle. Yuck.

Get all that?

Because in the end, it’d be a lot more exciting to fill out brackets with your friends and co-workers than to figure out scenarios such as these.