Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Can Sooners Topple Road Supremacy in This Series?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

If you go by recent history and not the betting odds for this weekend’s Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Big 12 encounter, the road team, which this time around is K-State, should come out on top.

Oct 17, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Austin Bennett (8) loses the ball as he is hit by Kansas State Wildcats linebacker Sam Sizelove (41) and defensive back Duke Shelley (8) during the Sooners 55-0 win at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Why would we even contemplate such an outcome in this Big 12 matchup on Saturday when the host Sooners have lost only nine times at home in 106 games over 18 seasons under head coach Bob Stoops and Oklahoma has won 78 percent of the 96 total games between these two schools?

Among conference teams, only Iowa State (.075) has a worse winning percentage against the Sooners than Kansas State (.219).

So what makes us believe that Kansas State has more than a fighter’s chance against No. 19 Oklahoma on Saturday? The answer is as fundamental as the style of play of the Wildcat football team: head coach Bill Snyder, plus the fact that the road team has prevailed in the last five games between these longtime conference foes.

Snyder’s teams are known to play fundamentally sound, hard-nosed football. They always play hard and don’t give up and, most important, they don’t beat themselves by committing costly turnovers and penalties. That is what they force their opponents to do, and the Wildcats are quick to capitalize on their opponent’s mistakes.

This year’s K-State team is no different, and the Wildcats will be at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium for an 11 a.m. kickoff on Saturday, seeking to win their third consecutive game against the Sooners on OU’s home turf, something that no team has done in the Stoops era at Oklahoma.

It was announced earlier this week that Oklahoma will wear one of its alternate “Rough Rider” uniform designs for the Kansas State game. The Sooners will wear their alternate crimson jerseys and white pants with the crimson wood-grained helmets.

What to Know About Oklahoma

Oct 17, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6)] drops back to pass during a 55-0 win against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

In their last two outings, wins over Big 12 opponents TCU and Texas, the Sooner offense has exploded for 97 points and 1,206 total yards. And they’ve done it with a strong run-pass balance, averaging 270 yards on the ground and 337 yards through the air the past two weeks. For the season, Oklahoma is averaging 528 yards of total offense and 40.6 points per game.

Where the Sooners struggle is on the defensive side of the ball, particularly defending the pass. Down six starters on defense, OU has been managing with a patchwork group on the defensive line as well as in the secondary, which has been burned with deep balls in virtually every game this season.

Oklahoma is second in the Big 12 in stopping the run, which works to the Sooners’ advantage against Kansas State, which runs the ball better than it does putting the ball in the air.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield, running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine and wide receiver Dede Westbrook have been outstanding in the wins over TCU and Texas and will be counted on to big contributors against K-State on Saturday.

What to Know About Kansas State

All your really need to know about Kansas State is that, as with every Bill Snyder-coached team, the Wildcats are as fundamentally sound in all aspects of the game as any team in the country and they do not beat themselves. All of which places a premium on error-free football, something Oklahoma has not been good at this season.

Oct 17, 2015; Manhattan, KS, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) is chased by Kansas State Wildcats defensive end Jordan Willis (75) early in a game at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas State leads the Big 12 in turnover margin with a plus-six ratio. If Oklahoma doesn’t do a better job of ball security than it has in practically every game this season – the Sooners are at the exact opposite end of the spectrum from the Wildcats, with a minus-six takeaway/giveaway margin – K-State will pounce on the opportunity and make the Sooners pay.

K-State recorded its first Big 12 win of 2016 last weekend, defeating Texas Tech 44-38 despite being outgained by 260 yards and giving up close to 600 yards through the air. The Wildcats lead the Big 12, allowing just 80.8 rushing yards per game, third best in the nation among FBS teams, and rank 14th in the country in total defense. Through five games, the Cats are allowing their opponents 310 yards a game in total defense.

A key matchup in this game will be the Oklahoma offense, averaging 528 yards per game, against the stingy K-State defense. Also, the powerful Sooner running game against one of the country’s top-three rushing defenses.

K-State is led on offense by junior quarterback Jesse Ertz and lead running back Charles Jones. The Wildcats are the worst in the Big 12 when they go to the air, but this could change with the Sooners’ vulnerability in pass defense. On defense, Kansas State relies on defensive end Jordan Willis and linebacker Elijah Lee, both of whom can be very disruptive.

Game Prediction

The last two games in Norman between these two longtime conference foes were decided by a combined six points, both in favor of Kansas State. You can be sure that the Sooner players are well aware of that. The Sooners are also aware that this would be a big win in their quest for a 10th Big 12 championship under Bob Stoops.

What this game boils down to is this: Oklahoma’s offense can score; Kansas State is the best in the conference at keeping teams out of the end zone (17.6 points per game). The Wildcats have trouble scoring, but the Sooner defense has trouble preventing teams from scoring, especially late in the game, when it counts the most.

The game will be closer than Sooner fans will like, but Oklahoma at home should be enough to chalk up one for the home crowd and cover the spread. Oklahoma 42, Kansas State 31