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Editor's note: Send questions for future Mailbags to stewart.mandel@fox.com.
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While on vacation in Maui last week (highly recommended, by the way) I spotted two fellow hotel guests donning Arizona Wildcats T-shirts within about five minutes of each other. I can remember a time when I could have gone five months without seeing the same.
And now ... two Arizona-related questions in the same Mailbag! Football school, everybody.
Welcome back, Stewart! I hate to be the typical "my team doesn't get any respect" homer, but I have to wonder: why is USC the consensus Pac-12 South favorite over Arizona? The Wildcats are defending champions and return their starting quarterback (Anu Solomon), running back (Nick Wilson), six of their top seven receivers and national defensive player of the year (Scooby Wright).
-- Frank, Tucson, Arizona
Hey Stewart, who is your dark horse to make a run in the Pac-12? Obviously Oregon and USC have a lot returning and Arizona could also be in the mix, but any dark horses who might surprise the way Arizona did last year?
-- Andy Bishop, Portland, Oregon
Preseason buzz would likely be higher for Arizona had it not ended the season with such a thud, getting blown out by Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game, then losing to underdog Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Mind you, Rich Rodriguez's team still won 10 games, including a memorable upset in Eugene and a Thanksgiving weekend win over rival Arizona State. But there's always going to be skepticism when a program with little track record goes belly up on the big stage.
USC, of course, is one of a short list of glamour programs that prognosticators will always lionize, regardless of actual evidence. The Trojans do have a legit Heisman contender at quarterback in Cody Kessler, a dynamic two-way standout in Adoree Jackson and a strong offensive line. USC's marquee win last season was arguably its 28-26 October upset at Arizona, but the Trojans' hype seems unduly high given a third straight blowout loss to UCLA and a near-total collapse in the Holiday Bowl against a ho-hum Nebraska team.
In a division with five preseason top-25 teams, it's not like any one towers over the others. Throw in Oregon and Stanford in the North and the league could have seven ranked teams, leaving me only five possibilities for the dark horse question.
I'll go with Cal. The Bears were indisputably better in coach Sonny Dykes' second season, improving from 1-11 to 5-7 overall and from 0-9 to 3-6 in the conference while narrowly losing to UCLA 36-34 and by one score to USC and BYU. Quarterback Jared Goff, who posted a 35-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, enters his third season as starter, and the Bears should finally have a competent D. I won't go so far as to say they'll win their division, a la 2014 Arizona, simply because Oregon is in their way, but perhaps Cal could enjoy a similar jump in wins. The North should be pretty soft after Oregon and Stanford.
Is holding a program hostage to solicit a fundraising craze like at UAB destined to take hold at other cash-strapped programs?
-- Aaron, Cincinnati
I sure hope not.
First of all, in this case there were political elements at play unique to the state of Alabama. While UAB president Ray Watts is the rightful villain for his bungling of the situation, many feel he was merely playing the puppet for influential board member Paul Bryant Jr., whose decades-old vendetta against UAB has been well-documented. Our FOX Sports colleague Tim Brando told a pretty eye-opening story to that end on a podcast episode Bruce Feldman and I recorded this week. Furthermore, the way the UAB story unfolded presumably put other schools on warning. If you're going to shut down an FBS football program, uprooting players and coaches and tearing apart a university in the process, you better be darn sure you're not using easily debunked financial figures to make your case.
That being said, it turns out Watts' initial decision had the inadvertent effect of actually injecting new life into a formerly support-starved program. Supporters managed to raise a reported $17 million in donations from a previously apathetic business community. Apparently it took the nuclear option to get there. Even before this week's turn of events, I never believed the UAB shutdown was a precursor to similar moves around the country. Yes, sponsoring FBS football is expensive, but even in a Group of 5 conference, there's enough television and bowl revenue coming in that you have to screw things up pretty badly to merit a doomsday scenario.
I love the Mailbag and this is my first-ever question. You called Notre Dame a legit CFP contender a couple weeks ago. The Irish certainly have a lot of talent returning. But when you combine the importance the committee places on winning a conference championship with what looks like a rare, incredibly weak schedule, isn't it possible that even an undefeated Irish team could be left out of the top four?
-- Matt Janus, Wilmington, Delaware
There are two things you can always count on with Notre Dame. First, a large segment of the public will decry the Irish as undeserving no matter what they do. And without failure, whenever you go into the year thinking their schedule is a murderer's row, several of the teams disappoint, just as whenever it looks easy, a whole bunch of teams will turn out better than expected. Looking at this year's slate, only Georgia Tech, Clemson and USC finished last season ranked. But I assume Stanford, for one, will be formidable, and I'd guess one or more among Texas, Pittsburgh and Boston College will be better than expected. By year's end Notre Dame will likely have played a respectable four or five top-25 teams.
An undefeated Irish team would have nothing to worry about. Short of that, though, the bigger concern is how the committee would deal with Notre Dame's lack of a conference championship and playing only 12 games, given what happened with the Big 12 last season. It's hard to say without knowing what the rest of the field would look like, but a one-loss Irish team could well be at a disadvantage when compared with undefeated or one-loss champions from the Power 5 conferences. AD Jack Swarbrick, one of the very people who helped formulate the playoff, has long banked on the assumption his school's schedule would counterbalance those issues. We won't know for sure until the scenario presents itself.
I have an eighth-year senior nomination: Keenan Reynolds for Navy. He started his first game the same year as #Linsanity.
-- Trent Douthett, Jackson, Ohio
No question, he should be on there. Though this team is quickly loading up on quarterbacks. Like ...
Gunner Kiel graduated high school in December 2011. Somehow he is only a sophomore at Cincinnati.
-- Keith Stone, location unknown
He's a junior now, but point taken. Given his well-chronicled recruitment I feel like he should be a third-year pro by now.
Stewart, I'd like to make an eighth-year senior nomination for Kent State running back Trayion Durham. You may remember him as the thunder to Dri Archer's lightning during the Golden Flashes' magical 2012 season.
-- Steve, Strongsville, Ohio
As much as I love #MACtion you're giving me way too much credit to assume I know that name. However, anyone who gained a first down against the historic 2011 Alabama defense -- and is still in college -- automatically makes the team.
Nearly half of the last decade's national title winners -- 2004 USC, 2007 LSU, 2009 Alabama and 2014 and Ohio State -- played a non-conference game against Virginia Tech, as did the 2013 Alabama team that lost to Auburn on the Kick Six play and the 2010 Boise State team that lost in overtime to Colin Kaepernick. Scheduling is a dark art, planned years in advance, but what are your picks for other schools that consistently pick fights against the toughest competition they can find?
-- Dan James, New York
Oklahoma under Bob Stoops has arguably been most consistent in playing home-and-homes against similar marquee programs, including Alabama (2002 and '03), Miami (2007 and '09), Florida State (2010 and '11) and Notre Dame (2012 and '13). This year brings a return trip to Tennessee, after which Ohio State comes on the schedule in 2016. That's a pretty impressive collection, though in several of those years the teams weren't anywhere near their historical level. Credit also goes to the Buckeyes, whose recent foes include Texas, USC, Miami and Virginia Tech; USC, which, in addition to its annual Notre Dame game, has visited Auburn, Kansas State, Ohio State and others.
One thing I've admired about Virginia Tech over the years is that not only do the Hokies take on the types of teams mentioned above, but they also don't shy away from perennially challenging mid-majors like Boise, Marshall and East Carolina. Of course, that's also backfired on Frank Beamer several times in recent years, including losing to ECU last season a week after beating Ohio State. But that happens. And if last season was any indication, the selection committee is more willing to forgive a non-conference loss (Ohio State) than not testing yourself in the first place (Baylor).
Stewart, with the perceived power vacuum in the ACC Coastal Division, what are the chances that Pat Narduzzi can win the division at Pitt his first year? The Panthers have two possible first-round picks on offense (RB James Conner and WR Tyler Boyd) as well as a QB (Chad Voytik) who got better as the year progressed. The rest of the Coastal is full of underachievers (Hokies, 'Canes), overachievers (Duke, Georgia Tech) and other schools that have been inconsistent recently (UNC, UVA).
-- Josh Grubbs, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Sure, why not? As you say, that division does not present a particularly frightening gauntlet, though let's give some credit to defending champ Georgia Tech. The Jackets beat three top-15 teams (Clemson, Georgia and Mississippi State) in the last four games of an 11-3 season. Now we're right back to perennially dismissing them. And I've talked up Virginia Tech so many times already that I'm probably going to have to talk myself back down to 6-7 by the time we get to August. Still, neither should be seen as out of reach for Pitt.
If Narduzzi's going to pull it off, the former Michigan State defensive coordinator is going to have to do it in uncharacteristic fashion. The Panthers have the opportunity to be very good on offense. They showed it in spurts last season, most notably Voytik's four straight big games in November against Duke (a 51-48 double-overtime loss), North Carolina (40-35 loss), Syracuse (30-7 win) and Miami (35-23 win). And Conner could well be the best running back in the country. Defensively the Panthers have a promising defensive front, but Narduzzi's aggressive scheme depends heavily on his cornerbacks' abilities to handle one-on-one coverage. Lafayette Pitts is a fourth-year starter but not likely a future Darqueze Dennard or Trae Waynes.
But with those weapons on offense, Narduzzi doesn't necessarily need Pitt to become a top-10 defense overnight. He just needs the offense to put up 35-40 points per game and for the defense to notch a few turnovers per contest.
If you took the bottom three teams from the power conferences, how would you rank them?
-- Daniel, Indiana
Not very highly.
What is the proper length to give a coach to rebuild a football team? I ask this in regards to my school, Washington State. In 2008 it was historically awful, and while the hole Paul Wulff inherited was not his fault, he was fired after four seasons. Now the Cougars have a big-name coach, Mike Leach, entering his own fourth year. I know from watching this team, there is more talent here than there was under Wulff, but if this season goes like last year (3-9), does Leach get fired?
-- Forest Worgum, Montesano, Washington
There's no universal answer for how much time is enough time. It depends on a variety of factors -- the depth of the woes a coach inherited, the progress he shows, the confidence (or lack thereof) he inspires and the larger expectations of the fan base, all of which can vary greatly from one place to the next. I feel bad for Wulff. He took over a roster that had deteriorated into the equivalent of a mid-level FCS team and may well have turned the corner if given a fifth year. But it was bad timing for him. The Pac-12 had just landed its mammoth new TV deal and AD Bill Moos seized the opportunity to go out and land a big name.
No question, Leach's tenure has been a mild disappointment to this point given his successful run at Texas Tech. After winning four Pac-12 games and ending a 10-year bowl drought in 2013, the Cougars regressed to 2-7 in the league after also losing to Rutgers and Nevada out of conference. But barring a complete implosion this fall I don't believe Leach is in any trouble. He and Moos have a great relationship, for one, and rare is the occasion where a coach with his resume would land in the Palouse. But of course that's a big difference between Washington State and, say, Florida, where no coach would survive three losing seasons in four years.
You mentioned it in a Mailbag recently, but I would love an updated look at your Kings and Barons list from a few summers ago.
-- Josh, Omaha
It's flattering that I get these types of requests regularly, but they're missing the point of the concept, which is those perception tiers are too deeply entrenched to change much in a three-year span. Even that version from 2012 did not differ dramatically from the first one in 2007. But check back with me in 2017. If nothing else I'm guessing Baylor will have shed the peasant label.
Stewart, do you read all the college football preview magazines like most of us college football junkies out here? Do you compare how other experts view certain teams compared to your rankings, or doesn't it matter to you? My favorite thing to do is read them at the end of the year to see where predictors were wrong and where they were right.
-- Matt, Milan, Michigan
Sure, I actually picked up my copy of Athlon at the airport on the way to Hawaii a couple weeks back (but didn't actually open it until I returned because, you know, I was in Hawaii) and look forward to the annual arrival of Phil Steele. While I obviously look at the predictions, the depth charts are far more useful to me in terms of my own eventual predictions. It's great to have all that information in one place, those preview magazines being one of the few remaining things I still prefer to read in print. (The others: birthday cards, restaurant menus and the USA Today weather map.)
As for comparing predictions, I think you'll find that other than Phil's annual handful of extreme outliers the rest are roughly the same. (Here's last year's compilation.) The question is why, with all the evaluative tools at our disposal, are the predictions still so wildly inaccurate (mine included)? Mind you, college football's particularly difficult given the huge amount of roster turnover from year to year. While returning starters is a commonly cited metric, the more important determiners of success are the guys we haven't yet seen play. Still, given the wealth of advanced statistics that tell us far more about a team's performance the previous year than its record, you'd think we might see more surprise and flop teams coming. Instead, according to Athlon, this year's top 25 will basically be last year's reshuffled. Here's my first prediction: That won't hold true.
Are there any parallels between FIFA and the NCAA? I can't think of two organizations that I hold in lower esteem. They have an ability to create headlines that diminish their own brands.
-- Dennis Butler, Wilmington, Delaware
Umm ... no. As much rancor as Mark Emmert and the NCAA engender with the sporting public, they've never been accused of anything remotely as sinister as bribery, money laundering or inexplicably awarding a major event to Qatar. Unless you count holding the Final Four in Detroit a few years back.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
