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FSU Football: Why Are 'Noles Big Underdogs Against Michigan?
Oct 15, 2016; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Deondre Francois (12) throws the ball during the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
FSU football will play Michigan in the Orange Bowl on December 30. We discuss why the ‘Noles opened as big betting underdogs against the Wolverines.
FSU football got the Orange Bowl bid over Louisville, much to the dismay of many due to FSU getting routed by Louisville in the third game of the season.
Who’s excited to see how Dalvin Cook will fare against one of the best defenses in college football?
The betting gurus released their odds for this game a couple of days ago, and to my surprise Michigan opened as a -7.5 point betting favorite.
We’ll take a look at how the teams stack up and why oddsmakers choose this number for starters.
Nov 26, 2016; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook (4) runs the ball for a touchdown past Florida Gators defensive back Chauncey Gardner Jr. (23) during the first quarter at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
How The Teams Stack Up
Florida State (9-3, 5-3 in ACC)
Points Per Game-35.3
Points Allowed Per Game-24.4
Total Yards-474.3
Yards Allowed-357.2
S&P+ Offense-No. 6
S&P+ Defense-No. 18
S&P + Special Teams-No. 65
Michigan (10-2, 7-2 in Big Ten)
Points Per Game-41
Points Allowed Per Game-12.5
Total Yards-439.3
Yards Allowed-252.7
S&P+ Offense-No. 26
S&P+ Defense-No. 1
S&P + Special Teams-No. 56
Clearly this game will feature FSU’s high-powered offense against Michigan’s defense. It should be noted that the best offense Michigan has faced all season was Ohio State at No. 12.
FSU faced five offenses better than Michigan in its first eight games of the season. The special teams look to be a wash stats wise.
Nov 26, 2016; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles Chief Osceola holds his spear above his head before the game against the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
FSU As Underdogs
The ‘Noles were underdogs just once all season which was a home game against the Clemson Tigers. FSU was +3, which was a surprise considering how both teams were playing at the time.
FSU was leading Clemson into the fourth quarter, but of course Clemson ultimately won by three points with some help from the refs.
The biggest issue for FSU early on was two-fold. Slow starts on offense and a defense that gave up explosive play after explosive play.
However, the ‘Noles seemed to rectify those problems later in the season. Clemson would have been around a -6 point favorite had they been playing at home.
So why is Michigan on a neutral field a larger favorite over FSU than Clemson would have been at home?
I think FSU matches up much better with Michigan than Clemson. Michigan doesn’t have a mobile quarterback like Deshaun Watson, and FSU has been able to defend immobile quarterbacks quite well.
He’s also not the most accurate passer, completing 62.5 percent of his passes.
Are oddsmakers saying Michigan is a better team than Clemson even though they won their conference and lost fewer games?
Nov 19, 2016; Syracuse, NY, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher has a word with an official to dispute a call during the fourth quarter of a game against the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome. Florida State won 45-14. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Conclusion
I expected Michigan to be the betting favorite, but the game will be played in Florida where FSU will have more fans in attendance similar to the season opener against Ole Miss.
So it’s not a neutral game per se.
As we’ve mentioned, Michigan doesn’t have a dynamic quarterback and he would be around the 8th best quarterback the ‘Noles have faced all season.
Michigan doesn’t have a 1,000 yard rusher on the season.
It seems like oddsmakers think the Michigan defense is going to be able to carry the day against the FSU offense.
Michigan will look to contain Dalvin Cook and make redshirt freshman Deondre Francois beat them with his arm.
Michigan was fourth in the nation in terms of sacking the quarterback, and forced 17 turnovers(12 interceptions) on the season.
One thing of note, Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown is familiar with Jimbo Fisher from his time as defensive coordinator at Boston College. His defenses have usually done a good job of slowing down Fisher’s offenses.
That could be the key to the game, and it’ll be interesting to see where the final betting line ends up.
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