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Forward Pass: Big 12 might be own worst enemy for Baylor and TCU
It’s a question Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby’s been asked repeatedly for more than two years, even though he, like the rest of us, does not yet know the answer. Will the lack of a conference championship game help or hurt his league in the College Football Playoff race?
We’re about to find out.
Mississippi State’s loss to Ole Miss over the weekend all but assured that Sunday’s inaugural four-team playoff field will consist solely of conference champions. In fact, Championship Weekend could not have worked out more ideally for the power-conference commissioners. The Pac-12 (Oregon-Arizona), SEC (Alabama-Missouri), ACC (Florida State-Georgia Tech) and Big Ten (Ohio State-Wisconsin) title games all carry playoff implications.
While the Big 12 has no officially sanctioned event, it will stage two de facto title games within 90 miles of each other Saturday. At noon eastern, TCU hosts 2-9 Iowa State. Assuming they win, the Horned Frogs will enjoy sole possession of the conference championship … for about eight hours. Saturday night, Baylor hosts Kansas State in a winner-takes-all showdown for the other half of the league title. (Insert “One True Champion” jokes here.)
All the while, the selection committee will be meeting just a short drive from the Big 12’s Dallas headquarters at the Gaylord Texan resort, where, depending on Saturday’s other results, TCU and Baylor could present their most difficult quandary.
If 10-1 Baylor beats 9-2 K-State, the committee may have to address once and for all whether the Bears’ 61-58 win over the Horned Frogs back on Oct. 11 trumps TCU’s stronger overall resume (due in large part to their non-conference win over 8-4 Minnesota). As of last week chairman Jeff Long maintained that their discrepancy in schedule strength rendered a head-to-head “tiebreaker” moot, but the gap will narrow considerably this week when Baylor faces a fellow first-place team while TCU plays a last-place team.
But that discussion operates under the sure-to-be premature assumption that last week’s 1-2-3 -- Oregon, Alabama and Florida State -- all win their respective championship games. With even one upset, it’s conceivable the Big 12 could get both teams in, at which point the other conferences might have to ask themselves whether they want to keep playing a 13th game.
“There’s risks to playing the conference championship game,” Bowlsby told FOX Sports earlier this season. “Your best team might not be the team that wins.”
But equally plausible is the exact opposite scenario. If the top three remain unchanged, and if Ohio State, now having lost two Heisman-candidate quarterbacks to injury, beats a 10-2 Wisconsin team, the Buckeyes may well leapfrog both. There’s even the possibility that two-loss Arizona could stake a claim if it beats 11-1 Oregon for the second time this season.
In either case, that extra chance for those teams to make an impression against a quality opponent would be the difference-maker. If the Big 12 gets shut out at their expense, Bowlsby, whose league currently trumpets its nine-game round-robin model, might as well announce the advent of a 2015 Big 12 championship game Monday morning (and begin the search for two new teams).
There’s some irony in the fact Baylor and TCU are the two schools -- as opposed to traditional stalwarts Texas and Oklahoma -- that might provide the 10-team conference’s first playoff test cases.
There was a moment three years ago, shortly before Robert Griffin III helped spring Baylor from punch line to powerhouse, when Baylor’s status as a major-conference program hung in limbo. The 2011 defections of Texas A&M and Missouri, a year after Nebraska and Colorado bolted, left the Big 12 fighting to save its existence. The conference ultimately pulled through, in part because Texas eased up its longtime resistance to perceived little brother TCU, allowing the conference to extend an invite to the then-Mountain West darling.
Three years later, Gary Patterson’s program is a week away from its most significant milestone yet, capturing a league championship in its third different conference since 2002. Only this one required beating Oklahoma and Kansas State, not Wyoming and New Mexico.
Meanwhile, Baylor maintained an undefeated record and BCS championship hopes well into November last year before a blowout loss at Oklahoma State and subsequent Fiesta Bowl debacle against UCF. A win Saturday would give the Bears back-to-back Big 12 championships, an astounding accomplishment for a program that failed to achieve a winning record its first 14 years in the league.
But in this, the playoff era, both teams are playing for an even bigger prize this week. If both win, the committee will decide by Sunday morning whether one or both gets to play for the national championship. Long has said repeatedly that the committee does not try to send messages. If things fall a certain way, though, they’ll do so one way or the other about conference championship games.
“Our model is different,” said Bowlsby. “Some years it will be an advantage for us. Some years it will be a disadvantage.”
This year, it could still go either way.
NEBRASKA HAD TO FIRE BO PELINI
Nebraska AD Shawn Eichorst rarely speaks to the media, and when he finally broke his season-long silence Sunday to announce coach Bo Pelini’s dismissal, he aptly summed up Pelini’s seven-year tenure with one sentence: “Although we did win a bunch of games, we didn’t win the games that mattered the most.”
While the move had been widely expected since Nebraska’s 59-24 debacle at Wisconsin on Nov. 15 and subsequent home loss to Minnesota, many outsiders, and even some Huskers fans, may still be aghast at the school firing a guy with a career .713 winning percentage whose team just finished the regular season 9-3. Especially given the program’s subsequent implosion the last time it fired a coach, Frank Solich, who’d just gone 9-3.
But the situations are hardly parallel. When Nebraska let Solich go in 2003, he was two years removed from a BCS championship game appearance and four years removed from a Big 12 championship. Amazingly, that 1999 trophy remains the program’s most recent.
Nebraska had to make a change if it ever hoped to return to national prominence. Pelini was good enough to get to 9-4 every year -- in fact, his pre-bowl dismissal will make this the first year he does NOT finish with four losses -- but he repeatedly went belly up when the stakes were highest. Be it the 70-31 loss to 7-5 Wisconsin in the 2012 Big Ten title game, last year’s 41-21 home loss to UCLA or letting Melvin Gordon run for 408 yards three weeks ago, Nebraska was a far cry from the Nebraska that won three national titles in four years in the late ‘90s.
It may be that in 2014, the substantial recruiting disadvantages of residing in a small landlocked state mean the Huskers will never return to that same lofty perch. But nor should they settle for annual Gator or Holiday Bowl trips.
Eichorst, who said he’s eschewing the help of a search firm, presumably has a certain coach in mind who he believes can make Nebraska a national player again. Oregon offensive coordinator and former Huskers national championship quarterback Scott Frost is the name being mentioned most frequently. If nothing else, recruits would surely dig that offense and those uniforms. A sitting head coach like Colorado State’s Jim McElwain or Air Force’s Troy Calhoun may be a safer bet.
On Sunday, Yahoo Sports columnist Pat Forde wrote that Pelini’s dismissal, while hardly cause for celebration, is encouraging for the Big Ten. I agree that the conference won’t break its current rut of mediocrity unless its many struggling programs start aiming higher in their coaching hires.
And yet outside of Nebraska and, we assume, Michigan, it appears the rest of the conference is going to stick it out with the status quo for another year. On Sunday, Illinois announced that third-year coach Tim Beckman, who lost 20 of his first 22 Big Ten games before beating Penn State and Northwestern in the last two weeks of the season to get bowl-eligible, will return in 2015. Indiana’s Kevin Wilson, 14-34 in four seasons, will reportedly be back as well.
And then there’s Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz, whose team blew a 24-7 lead to Pelini’s Huskers last Friday to lose 37-34 in overtime and finish 7-5. Since signing an essentially unbreakable 10-year contract in 2010 that currently pays him north of $4 million per season, Ferentz has gone 19-21 in conference play.
When discussing how the Huskers’ dramatic win at Iowa affected his decision, Eichorst said: "In the final analysis, I had to evaluate where Iowa was." Ouch.
Nebraska’s next coach may or may not pan out, but at least the school is aiming higher.
UAB’S SHAMEFUL SHUTDOWN
On Saturday, UAB beat Southern Miss to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2004, with first-year coach Bill Clark leading a turnaround from 2-10 last season to 6-6.
“We knew what this game meant,” linebacker Shaq Jones told AL.com. “We knew we had a chance at going to a bowl game. Now, we've just got to wait it out and see."
On Sunday, Jones and his teammates presumably heard the reports that not only will UAB not be going to a bowl game but in fact their program will be shut down as soon as this week. If so, UAB will become the first FBS school to drop football since Pacific in 1995.
There had been rumblings for the past month that this day was coming, the unfortunate consequence of mixing the state of Alabama’s two most volatile arenas -- football and politics. The same university board of trustees that runs the flagship school in Tuscaloosa also oversees the Birmingham institution, and a decades-old grudge by trustee Paul Bryant Jr. -- you may have heard of his father -- has long been blamed for the Blazers’ lack of institutional support. A group of UAB boosters and alumni had expressed concern that a soon-to-be released commission report on UAB athletics would recommend dropping football.
It’s an unfortunate situation all around.
Politics aside, though, there’s no question UAB football was hemorrhaging money. According to CBSSports.com’s Jon Solomon, the athletic department received $85.4 million in university subsidies from 2006-‘13. While the political dynamic might be unique to UAB, those financial burdens are not. In fact, UAB’s $17.5 million deficit in 2013 was about middle-of-the-pack among the non-power conferences.
Which makes you wonder whether other lower-level FBS programs might soon suffer a similar fate if their own universities start commissioning feasibility panels.
As evidenced by Marshall’s failure to gain national traction this season despite an 11-0 record prior to last week’s Western Kentucky loss, most Group of 5 teams are going to struggle for exposure in the playoff era. Save for the occasional Boise State breakthrough, the sport is now focused almost entirely around the Power 5. At what cost is it still worth it to chase a Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl berth?
To this point the trend has gone the opposite direction. Regular FCS playoff contenders like Appalachian State, Georgia Southern and Old Dominion have moved up to FBS despite the considerably more expensive operating costs. Of course, those schools also enjoy steady fan support and commitments to facility upgrades. UAB was swimming upstream without either. And now, a group of players that worked their butts off for 11 months won’t get their rightful reward thanks to a bunch of adults’ mismanagement and agendas.
CONDOLENCES IN COLUMBUS
On Sunday, Columbus police confirmed the terrible news they’d identified missing Ohio State walk-on, and former Buckeye wrestler, Kosta Karageorge’s body. The 22-year-old died of an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound. According to a police report during the missing persons search, Karageorge had suffered concussions and texted his mother at 1:30 a.m. last Wednesday saying: “I am sorry if I am an embarrassment but these concussions have my head all f---ed up."
Please offer your thoughts and prayers to Karageorge’s family and the Ohio State community.
THIS WEEK’S BOWL FORECAST
Each week, I'll update my predicted lineup for the New Year’s Six bowls based on the latest week's games.
Peach: Michigan State (at-large) vs. Ole Miss (at-large)
Fiesta: Arizona (at-large) vs. Boise State (Group of 5)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. Mississippi State (B1G/SEC/ND)
Cotton: TCU (at-large) vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten champ)
Sugar (semifinal): No. 1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs. No. 4 Baylor (Big 12 champ)
Rose (semifinal): No. 2 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) vs. No. 3 Florida State (ACC champ)
Following Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett’s unfortunate season-ending ankle injury against Michigan, speculation immediately turned to whether the committee -- which has said it will take injuries into consideration -- will downgrade the Buckeyes. I don’t believe it will this week, but it will Sunday after Melvin Gordon runs all over that defense and an offense led by backup Cardale Jones can’t keep up. At that point, the committee may drop Ohio State out of the top 10, and as a result, out of the New Year’s Six lineup completely, as you see above.
Under that scenario, if there are no other Championship Saturday upsets, the No. 4 seed turns into a TCU-Baylor showdown. I’ve long assumed the committee will bump the Bears above the Horned Frogs if both are 11-1 once their seasons are complete, but I feel less sure about that now than ever before.
THE HEISMAN RACE AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS
1) Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon. Simply put, if Mariota avenges this season’s sole loss against Arizona, he’s most likely going to win the trophy. His sensational stat line now consists of 4,106 total yards, 47 total touchdowns and just two interceptions. His 190.2 efficiency rating is just a tick behind Russell Willson’s FBS record 191.8 in 2011.
2) Melvin Gordon RB, Wisconsin. Barring an awful finale against Ohio State, Gordon is all but guaranteed to reach New York. He’s up to 2,260 rushing yards, most of any FBS player since 2007, 26 touchdowns and a staggering 7.99 yards per carry. Beating the Buckeyes still might not be enough to overtake Mariota unless he has another 300-yard game.
3) Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama. With his scintillating Iron Bowl performance -- 13 catches for 224 yards and three TDs -- Cooper recaptured any voters that may have forgotten him. He now has 103 catches for 1,573 yards and 14 TDs. I don’t see a true receiver beating a quarterback and running back, but even a decent game against Missouri gets him to New York.
Those three are the only players who can still win it. And the only other possible finalists include TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin and Indiana running back Tevin Coleman. Reigning winner Jameis Winston has now thrown 17 interceptions, more than all but two quarterbacks nationally. He’s done.
ON TO NEXT WEEKEND
Five games we’re most excited for AND you shouldn’t miss:
* Arizona vs. Oregon (Friday, 9 ET). Arizona faces the unenviable challenge of beating Oregon for the third time in 13 months. But as we know well by now, Scooby Wright and the Wildcats’ D should not be taken lightly.
* Alabama vs. Missouri (Saturday, 4 ET). Mizzou boasts another fierce defensive front, led by Shane Ray. It could slow down Alabama’s rushing attack and pressure Blake Sims. But the Tigers may struggle offensively.
* Kansas State at Baylor (Saturday, 7:45 ET). Since starting the 2012 season 4-5, Art Briles’ team is 25-3, and it all began with a 52-24 rout of K-State the last time it visited Waco. This one should be closer. Maybe.
* Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (Saturday, 8 ET). No pressure, Cardale Jones. The Buckeyes’ third-year quarterback makes his first career start in the Big Ten title game. Look for a lot of Jalin Marshall in Wildcat packages.
* Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (Saturday, 8 ET). It could prove fortuitous that Jimbo Fisher hired defensive coordinator Charles Kelly from Georgia Tech. The Jackets’ option offense is brutal on a week’s preparation.
One under-the-radar gem:
* Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (Friday, 7 ET). The Friday night MAC championship game rarely disappoints, and this one’s a rematch of last year’s game, when the Falcons ruined the Huskies’ undefeated season.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, “The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff,” is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
