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Florida State can't afford lousy Jameis Winston vs. Georgia Tech
People have said all season that this 2014 Florida State team is wildly different from the dominant 2013 squad. They’re right. The 'Noles aren’t close to being second in the nation offensively, by scoring more than 50 points per game, or first defensively, by holding opponents to a feeble 12.1 points per game, like they were last season. Florida State has been biting, scratching and clawing its way past opponent after opponent — barely.
The most glaring difference between this year’s Seminoles and last year’s is their quarterback. Jameis Winston is off his game.
Only three FBS quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions than Winston’s 17 this season — the most of any Power 5-conference QB. Some have proposed that opposing defensive coordinators have figured out how to rattle him, but that’s not the case. Only nine of his 17 interceptions have come against the blitz.
This is on Winston — he’s simply making bad decisions.
Perhaps with all of his success and highlight-reel plays he has developed a Superman complex, thinking he can ignore basic QB rules and do things that other ordinary quarterbacks cannot do. Whatever the reason, Winston has shown poor decisions on tape and has developed the bad habit of staring his receivers down. These errors have stripped him of the opportunity to join Ohio State’s Archie Griffin and become only the second player to ever win two Heisman trophies, and it may end up costing the 'Noles another title if things don’t change.
While Florida State has been more resilient than any team in the nation and has found ways to win close and come-from-behind games all season, they'll now face a Georgia Tech team in the ACC Championship game that is downright gritty.
The Yellow Jacket defense allows 24.1 points per game, but it swarms. They've been one of the most opportunistic defenses in the nation in the second half of the season with 17 takeaways in their last five games, which is second in the country during that span. Match that with a ball control offense that leads the nation in third-down conversions at a whopping 57.4 percent success rate, and you have a formula for disaster with any Florida State turnover in this game.
GT’s offense is demoralizing and unforgiving. During their current five-game win streak, their average time of possession is 36:06. That means they’ve held the ball an average of 12 minutes more than their opponents during that span — that’s almost an entire quarter their opponent doesn’t have the ball. If Winston throws interceptions in the ACC title game, it’ll be difficult to overcome.
If the 'Noles are going to win the ACC title, Winston will have to play like he did in 2013, making good decisions and not forcing plays that aren’t there. Let's take a look at two examples that show where Winston has faltered in 2014.
Bad decision vs. Cover 2-Man
In the first photo you’ll see what Winston saw before the snap — no disguise, just a simple read: two high safeties and potential man-to-man coverage underneath against his two receivers, a running back to the left and one receiver to the right.
As soon as the safeties split at the snap of the ball and the underneath defenders latch to the receiving threats, Winston knows that it is Cover 2-Man.
In the next photo you’ll see the route was a smash-7 with the running back swinging to the flat. Winston’s progression on this concept, after recognizing the coverage, is this:
1. Peek the curl (smash)
2. Peek the 7 (corner route)
3. Throw it to the swing or take off running (since all cover men have backs turned)
I talked to one NFL quarterback who said this was a “simple” read for Winston given the secondary was playing sound coverage on the deeper routes and the linebacker gave the running back so much air.
Winston was being greedy on this play. He made the decision to force the ball to an area where there were four defenders in his vision with his two receivers. From a clean pocket against a four-man rush, Winston sent the ball to a place that he shouldn’t have. The result …
Bad decision vs. Cover 4
In the first photo you can see what Winston was looking at pre-snap. A simple read just like the previous play: two high safeties and potential man-to-man coverage underneath against his two receivers, tight end and running back to the left and one receiver to the right.
As soon as the safeties sit instead of split at the snap of the ball and the underneath defenders sit in zones, Winston knows it is Cover 4.
In the next photo, you’ll see that Winston had his tight end and slot running vertical routes directly into the two deep safeties and the deep cornerback to the left of the screen.
Never should he have attempted to throw this pass to one of those routes against this coverage. His immediate read should have been to hit his shallow crosser entering from the left of the screen (blue circle and dots).
For a second time in this film study session, Winston tried to force a throw that wasn’t there. The result was the same.
You can see the interception in the next photo and you can also see the decision that Winston should have made.
This must be infuriating for FSU fans, because we can assume Winston is being coached properly and we know he’s capable of making correct decisions on the field, as we saw last season.
While Florida State has exemplified incredible resolve to squeeze out victories over inferior opponents, Georgia Tech has a feisty and opportunistic defense and an offense — stocked with talent and tactics — that will rack up yards and chew up the clock. In a normal game, FSU can expect 12-14 possessions. Against GT, that shrinks to seven or eight, which is why FSU can’t waste any. Unless FSU’s defense finds a way to score, every offensive drive needs to result in points.
The examples above were just two of Winston’s 17 interceptions in 2014. The four interceptions in his most recent game against Florida were just as bad. If Winston simply takes what the defense gives him and protects the football, there’s no stopping the ‘Noles in the ACC title game.
But if he continues to make bad decisions and these issues rear their ugly heads against the Yellow Jackets, FSU is going down.
Coy Wire played college football at Stanford before a nine-year NFL career in Buffalo and Atlanta. He's currently a college football analyst for FOX Sports 1 and writes for FOXSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @CoyWire.
