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The first standings for the Bowl Championship Series are still a week away from being released, but the BCS might be a little blue when they are unveiled.
Because the BCS’ nightmare scenario of a non-BCS team making the national championship game may exist — at least for a week.
“If it were this week, Boise State would be No. 1,” says Jerry Palm, an independent BCS analyst and the publisher of collegebcs.com. “There’s a chance it’ll be that way next week, too.”
In both the USA Today coaches’ poll and the Harris Interactive Poll, which account for two-thirds of the BCS formula, Ohio State is first, followed by Oregon and Boise State. But when the initial BCS standings are released, the Broncos will likely be first among the six computers that account for the other third of the BCS formula, according to Palm.
“At least at this point, Boise State’s got the best combination of polls and computers,” Palm says.
Oregon would have been second in the BCS standings this week, followed by Texas Christian, Oklahoma and Ohio State, according to Palm.
But Boise State’s perch on the top spot is unlikely to last long. The Broncos are strong in the computers for now because they have played the strongest part of their schedule and haven’t gotten in to the weaker portion of it yet.
Oregon and Ohio State are just starting to get to the heart of their schedules, which will help them in the computers. The Buckeyes have the most to gain because they are currently 10th in the computers, according to Palm.
But as usual, the human polls will ultimately decide which two teams play in the BCS title game. The computers only have an impact now because they’re in such flux this early in the season, Palm says.
“I always tell people for the first BCS standings, look at the polls and ignore the computers, which may have some wild results, because they don’t matter,” Palm says. “The polls drive this thing, and the computers will eventually converge with them by the end of the year.”
For Boise State or TCU to even have a chance at being the first non-BCS team to play in the national championship game, either would have to be undefeated and all other teams would need at least one loss, Palm says.
“They’re going to need strong voter support, and for that to happen, there almost has to be no other choice,” Palm says.
That means Boise State and TCU would probably need some conference champions to have two losses like national champion Louisiana State did in 2007 to get to the BCS title game, Palm says. That’s particularly true in the SEC, where former No. 1 Alabama lost Saturday at South Carolina.
The defending national champion Crimson Tide are ranked eighth in both the coaches’ poll and Harris poll.
“If Alabama wins out from here, you’re going to have a lot of voters, maybe a majority, put them ahead of Boise State and TCU on their ballots,” Palm says. “And the computers might like them better, too. You might have a one-loss Nebraska or one-loss Ohio State that voters might like better and computers might, too. Certainly, a one-loss SEC champion because they’re sacred, and I say that with all due sarcasm, is going to get a lot of voter support. A one-loss Pac-10 team might get a lot of support.”
After his team devastated Toledo, 57-14, on Saturday night, Boise State coach Chris Petersen joked that Alabama’s loss probably meant that the Broncos would drop five spots in the polls.
“I think it’s good for the game in general, all the stuff that we don’t want to pay attention to, but I think everybody else loves it,” Petersen told reporters of Alabama’s loss.
But when asked if he’d vote his team No. 1 in the USA Today coaches’ poll, Petersen said, “No. I don’t think so.”
It’s not that Peterson doesn’t believe in his team. Maybe he’s just being realistic about his team’s chances of playing in the BCS title game.
“It just takes the right circumstances,” Palm says. “But it’s a pretty unlikely circumstance.”
Yet one that’s sure to continue to spark plenty more blue-in-the-face debate.
