College Football

Big Ten: Top Teams' College Football Playoff Odds

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:39 p.m. ET

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With five teams in the top 10 losing in Week 11, the College Football Playoff rankings will have their biggest shake up of 2016, and the Big Ten will take advantage of it.

With three teams ranked in the top 10 heading into Week 11, and only one of them falling, the Big Ten is working their way with multiple teams making an argument for the College Football Playoff. Everyone said it was going to take a lot for more than one Big Ten school to make the top four. Well, a lot definitely happened this weekend.

From Michigan to Penn State, each of the four top 10 Big Ten schools has a strong chance of earning their way into a playoff spot. For some, all it will take is to win out the rest of their 2016 season. For others, a loss to one or two top 10 teams will help their chances. That doesn’t mean they’ll need the help to see their name in the top four.

What the Big Ten has proven this year is that they are the powerhouse of college football once again. No other conference has stacked up to the Big Ten this season. All the evidence needed is the four teams within the top 10, and two hoping to be in the top four after Week 11.

If college football really wanted the best matchup in the College Football Playoff, they’d just put these top four Big Ten schools in. Unfortunately, that isn’t going to be the case. That’s okay, though, because the competition will be even heavier knowing none of these teams are safe.

With each of these teams, the College Football Playoff probability is different. So how is each team stacking up against the rest?

Penn State (8-2, 6-1)

Penn State came out of nowhere to beat Ohio State in Week 8. Since then, they’ve squeezed their way into the top 10, hoping to hear their name called even higher this week. With four teams ahead of them falling in Week 11, it’s almost certain the Nittany Lions will climb even higher up the boards.

Although Penn State is thrilled to be moving up once again, inching closer to the top four, it isn’t their primary objective. Like the rest of college football, a seat in the College Football Playoff is the goal. With two games remaining in 2016, the Lions have a shot to reach their goal.

Michigan’s demise to Iowa was the best thing to happen to Penn State. Sitting one game behind the Wolverines in the Big Ten heading into Week 11, the Lions are now in a position to compete for the Big Ten Championship.

If they’re able to beat Rutgers and Michigan State without any setbacks, Penn State could be looking at the Big Ten East title. From there, the season is theirs for the taking.

When it comes to the likelihood of Penn State in the College Football Playoff, it’s high. This team should find themselves sitting near number six or seven heading into Week 12. If they win in blowout fashion against the worst two teams in the Big Ten, they could easily slide their way even higher.

What really benefits Penn State is Michigan vs Ohio State in Week 14. If Ohio State can claim a victory, Penn State will be competing in the Big Ten Championship. It’s basically a sure thing that the winner of the Big Ten is headed to the College Football Playoff.

The Lions can benefit from the other side as well. If Michigan defeats Ohio State in Week 14, then proceeds to win the Big Ten Championship, they will single-handily knock out two teams sitting ahead of Penn State. If the Nittany Lions can impress the College Football Playoff committee during these last two weeks, they could find themselves in the top four without a Big Ten title.

Once broken down, Penn State doesn’t need much help to get their chance to earn a spot in the top four.

Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2)

Wisconsin was one of four teams in the top 10 with two losses. What looks good for Wisconsin is that these two losses came from Michigan and Ohio State. With Michigan losing, Wisconsin is hoping to take full advantage and see themselves in the top four before Week 12.

At number seven heading into Week 11, Wisconsin was comfortable and waiting for a time to move up. That all happened this week, as the number two, three and four ranked teams in the country lost. Without question that will put the Badgers in the top four and for the first time all season, on the inside looking out.

As Nebraska continues to lose, Wisconsin is hoping to claim the Big Ten West title. If they’re able to compete in the Big Ten Championship and win, they’ll be guaranteed a place in the College Football Playoff. However, not playing in this game may benefit them more.

Right now, Wisconsin sits second in the Big Ten West. If they earn their way into the top four before the Big Ten Championship, they could be sitting comfortable. Depending on who plays, Wisconsin could be kept in the top four whether they’re in the Big Ten Championship or not.

If Penn State finds their way into this game, meaning Michigan took their second loss, falling to Ohio State, Wisconsin may want to play against them. If Ohio State defeats Michigan in Week 14, they will almost certainly have a place in the top four. If Penn State wins the Big Ten against someone other than Wisconsin, they may be the team the College Football Playoff committee picks over the Badgers.

Either way, Wisconsin has a pretty good chance of finding their way into the College Football Playoff this season. If they’re able to win out these last two games, they’ll be in good shape. If they win the Big Ten, they’ll basically be automatically placed in the top four.

Michigan (9-1, 6-1)

Michigan’s loss to Iowa in Week 11 put them on the outside looking in for the first time all season. It isn’t that they aren’t going to make the College Football Playoff, but they can’t have any other falls this season.

Their biggest battle is going to be Ohio State. The way most people see it, if Michigan defeats the Buckeyes they’re in the top four. If they loss, their College Football Playoff dreams are gone. Even if they loss the Big Ten Championship, the Wolverines should have a strong enough resume to keep them in during the final rankings.

As strange as it seems, Michigan may have the lowest chance of getting into the the CFP. It basically comes down to one game, and if the Wolverines slip up before then they’re finished. It’s weird to think that a team with two top ten victories is on the back-burner of the top 10. That’s what happens when you lose late in the season, though.

Michigan’s chances are unknown right now. It’s fairly uncertain who will win between them and Ohio State in Week 14. As said before, that game will decide the fate of both the Wolverines and the Buckeyes.

The top two teams in the Big Ten are going to battle it out for a spot in the College Football Playoff just like it should be. Although this game may have just as much of an impact on other teams as it does the two competing in it, it’s still a significant factor for both.

If the scenario plays out where Michigan does beat Ohio State, but then loses in the Big Ten Championship game, they will most certainly not see themselves in the top four. This team has no mistakes left, and will need to take advantage of every opportunity to find themselves in the College Football Playoff. Fortunately, these opportunities all rely on themselves.

Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)

Ohio State found themselves at number two in the AP Polls this week and may find the same result in the College Football Playoff rankings. This team is about to sit comfy in the top four, and as long as they defeat Michigan, they shouldn’t move.

The Buckeyes have taken full advantage of Week 11. With three of the top four teams losing, Ohio State should fall right into the number two spot. Even with the chances of them playing in the Big Ten Championship practically gone, the Buckeyes are a favorite to make the College Football Playoff.

They’ve done everything they needed to at the right times to get to this spot. How they got to this position isn’t necessarily because of who they beat, but when the won. Their loss to Penn State came early enough in the season to allow them to work their way back into the top. Now, all they need to do is win their last two games.

The likelihood of Penn State losing to Rutgers or Michigan State is pretty slim. So, as long as Ohio State wins these last two games, their regular season will be over, and it’ll be up to the College Football Playoff committee to decide their future.

When you break it down, Ohio State’s playoff hopes look like this. Number two Clemson, number three Michigan, and number four Washington all lost in Week 11. Therefore, it’s very unlikely any of these teams jump Ohio State if the Buckeyes win their last two games.

Since they will most-likely not have to play in the Big Ten Championship, it’s going to be a matter of where teams outside the top four sit after the regular season ends. However, if they’re able to beat Michigan in Week 14, there’s almost 100% certainty Ohio State will return to the College Football Playoff.