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Auburn-Mississippi State: How Dak Prescott makes Bulldogs strong national title threat
Mississippi State and quarterback Dak Prescott have shot to the forefront of the College Football Playoff and Heisman talks after their dismantling of Texas A&M.
I’m not ready to move Prescott ahead of all the other Heisman contenders based off of a solid performance against an average-at-best defense, but he has to be given credit for how efficiently he operated MSU’s offensive scheme in the Bulldogs' victory over the Aggies. This is the same QB-friendly scheme in which Tim Tebow found huge success at Florida, where the former Heisman Trophy winner completed 66 percent of his passes before completing only 47 percent of his passes in the NFL.
While Prescott completed 20-of-26 passes (76 percent) for two touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Aggies, 15 of those passes (57 percent) were thrown within six yards of the line of scrimmage. Many of them were thrown to receivers or backs behind the line of scrimmage.
However, when Prescott did throw the ball downfield against the Aggies, he shined. His ability to throw with precision against man-to-man coverage is what truly made him special in Mississippi State’s scheme last weekend and could be what gives the No. 3 Bulldogs a chance at knocking off their third Top-10 opponent of the season when they face No. 2 Auburn this weekend. And if he continues to make big-time throws consistently, Prescott may end up proving to be better than the Heisman Trophy winner who shined in this scheme before him.
Let’s take a look at how -- and why -- Prescott showed that he has the ability to be a wicked-good vertical passer in last Saturday’s game and make the Bulldogs a stronger SEC and national title contender.
I’ll also point out one of the run-game schemes that causes problems for defenses and allows Prescott and Co. to be a force running the football as well.
Prescott masters the look-off and back-shoulder strike
The Bulldogs run the ball 64 percent of the time, and they are the nation’s 13th-best rushing team averaging 274.4 yards per game. Prescott has already racked up 455 yards on the ground (5.4 avg), and running back Josh Robinson averages 7.5 yards per carry while Brandon Holloway averaged six.
When a team runs the ball as effectively and as often as Mississippi State, defenses are forced to play an extra defender in the box -- close to the line of scrimmage -- to try to stop the run. That means that Prescott’s receivers will face man-to-man coverage often. When that happens, Prescott will get the opportunity to pick defenses apart with accurate passing.
On the play below, you’ll see Prescott quickly recognize that the defense is playing man-to-man coverage with the only extra help being a single-high safety in the deep middle of the field -- who he immediately looks off to his left. Quicker than a hiccup, Prescott snaps to his right and delivers a perfect pass to the back shoulder of his wide receiver where the defender cannot reach it:
Ask any quarterback and they’ll tell you that looking off safeties with the eyes is no easy task, and delivering a pinpoint dart where only your receiver can get it is even more difficult. Prescott did it to perfection there.
Here’s another example of Prescott staring down the middle-field safety -- not showing his hand -- and then suddenly slinging the ball to the back shoulder of his wide receiver. The receiver is able to make this catch – because of Prescott’s ball placement – despite being previously smothered by the defender. Prescott “throws the receiver open.”
Here’s one more example -- a photo -- that shows how Prescott repeatedly put the ball where only his receiver could snag it. Keep in mind as you look at this photo that this was not an out-route. The receiver was running a deep go-route, but when Prescott saw that the defensive back was “on top of,” or running side-by-side with the receiver (covered well), he threw a back-shoulder strike where only his receiver could snap back and grab the ball. This pass was low and away and -- as a defensive back -- you stand no chance of defending a perfectly placed pass like this:
Why Bulldogs are deadly in the run game
While several of Mississippi State’s running plays put defenders in a bind, here is one example that is a microcosm of the headache that is the Bulldogs’ run game.
In the photo below, see that the offensive tackle (No. 75) pulls in the opposite direction (right) of this RB sweep left. Prescott is taught to read the frontside linebacker to see if he stays to the frontside (left) to play the RB sweep or if he falls back to the backside (right) with the pulling offensive tackle. The linebacker is typically only trained to see the “triangle” – the offensive center, two guards and the running backs – to get his run read. He’s taught that those blockers/players will take you to the ball. In this play, the linebacker has to try to expand his vision to be able to see the offensive tackle too, but that’s much easier said than done.
* If the frontside linebacker falls back with the pulling offensive tackle, Prescott is taught to hand the ball off to the running back.
* If the linebacker stays frontside – which he does here – Prescott is taught to keep the ball and follow the tackle through the hole to the backside of the play (right).
Here’s how it all looks:
In the next photo, you can see that by the time the linebacker to the frontside of the play realizes the offensive tackle (No. 75) has pulled and Prescott has kept the ball, it’s too late, and he gets blocked by the center.
The defensive end to the frontside of the play -- who was unblocked because the offensive tackle pulled to the backside of the play -- is influenced by the running back and has no chance of redirecting and making a tackle on Prescott, who is already running downhill with a lead blocker to take on the only remaining defender.
Take a look:
This, plus Prescott’s growth as a passer, is what makes Mississippi State so difficult to defend.
After breaking down the tape, it’s clear that Prescott deserves to be smack dab in the middle of the Heisman talks after six weeks.
For me, the most impressive aspect of the Texas A&M game was Mississippi State’s defense. Anchored by a huge defensive line with physical players at every position, their ability to tackle and match Texas A&M's route concepts with basically two simple zone coverage schemes (cover 2 and cover 4) the entire game was impressive. They allowed Texas A&M to convert only 29 percent of their third-down attempts even though the Aggies were converting over 50 percent of those tries coming into the game. Combine that with Prescott and the Bulldogs’ offense, and Mississippi State should have a significant say in the College Football Playoff discussion, too.
If the Bulldogs are going to beat the nation's second-ranked team in Auburn, it will be because Prescott plays the way he did against the Aggies. He certainly showed that he has the potential to be as dynamic through the air as he is on the ground. If he continues to make the correct reads in the run game, looks off defenders and delivers accurate deep balls against man-to-man coverage with consistency, he’ll likely hoist the Heisman Trophy at the end of the year and the Bulldogs will be barking in the four-team playoff.
Coy Wire played college football at Stanford before a nine-year NFL career in Buffalo and Atlanta. He's currently a college football analyst for FOX Sports 1 and writes for FOXsports.com. Follow him on Twitter @CoyWire.
