UNC Basketball: 2016-17 ACC Schedule Breakdown
UNC has released their ACC Schedule. How does it breakdown for the Heels to win it all?
When I was in college, and 10 years after, I loved EA Sports. I would play the Madden, the NCAA, and NBA Live. I know there were better basketball games but I was an EA guy.
The reason I like EA so much wasn’t the graphics, which were great. It wasn’t the domination, which I did. It was one of the game modes: GM. I loved being a GM, or in the college world the head coach.
I would spend a weekend play through a season of football just to get to the offseason. I didn’t like to sim seasons because I hated losing and wanted to go undefeated. In Madden and Live that meant free agents and the draft. In College Football that meant recruiting and schedule making.
College football was my favorite and UNC always won. Part of the reason they always won was because my schedule was awesome. Unfortunately, the one thing you couldn’t control was the ACC schedule.
Well in case you missed it the Heels released their ACC schedule earlier this week. Here at KIH we have already done an instant analysis of it. However I wanted to do a breakdown. It is our turn to be the Head Coach. So here is what we need to do to reach certain milestones this ACC season.
So You Want to be Taken Seriously?
Feb 9, 2016; Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry II (2) and Boston College Eagles guard Eli Carter (3) chase a loose ball during the second half at Silvio O. Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
NC State 1/7
@ Wake Forest 1/11
@ Boston College 1/21
@ NC State 2/15
In every season there are games you have to win if you want people to take you seriously.
These are those games. Wake, State, and Boston College were the three worst teams in the ACC last year. Not only did they all finish at the bottom of the standings but they also were the only three ACC teams to finish with below .500 records. The three teams combined to win seven games.
Losing games like these create questions in the minds of those who do the rankings and the selecting. Now could any of these teams have a breakout season ala Virginia Tech last year? Sure, but it is always best to beat the worst in your conference. As of last season, this was it. Notice three of the four games are on the road. This helps Carolina, especially if these three stay at the bottom of the standings. It also helps them reach the next level.
So You Want to Win 20 Games?
Dec 30, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forwards Theo Pinson (1) and Isaiah Hicks (4) and Clemson Tigers center Landry Nnoko (35) and forward Jaron Blossomgame (5) fight for the ball in the second half. The Tar Heels defeated the Tigers 80-69 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
@ Georgia Tech 12/31
@ Clemson 1/3
Florida State 1/14
Virginia Tech 1/26
None of these teams made the NCAA tournament but were in consideration for parts of last year.
These games can be difficult.
However, beating the lower middle of the pack is how a team gets to 20 wins. Winning 20 is no longer the ticket to the tourney it used to be, but it is still a milestone nonetheless.
If you don’t win 20, you will need a conference championship to make the dance. Unlike the group before these games can be lost without much scrutiny. However, a loss does make it harder to reach the 20 win mark. Even though 20 wins isn’t what it use to be, it does help get a team to the next category.
So You Want to Make the NCAA Tournament?
Apr 2, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Syracuse Orange forward Michael Gbinije (0) shoots defended by North Carolina Tar Heels forward Kennedy Meeks (3) during the second half in the 2016 NCAA Men
Syracuse 1/16
Pittsburgh 1/31
@ Pittsburgh 2/25
Syracuse and Pitt finished last season in the middle of the ACC standings in between the four teams mentioned previously. They both made the tournament and Syracuse even made the Final Four.
Beating fellow tournament teams is a measure that the selection committee uses to select and seed teams. Winning at home is key, but winning on the road is huge. UNC gets two of these three games at home.
That can be good for UNC if it wins, or good for Cuse and Pitt if they lose. Making the tournament is a key move if a team wants to reach the next step.
So You Want to Win the ACC?
Mar 27, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Justin Jackson (44) reacts during the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the championship game in the East regional of the NCAA Tournament at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
@ Miami 1/28
Notre Dame 2/4
Louisville 2/22
Miami, Notre Dame, and Louisville all were top six teams in the ACC last year. Notre Dame made it to the Elite Eight. Louisville missed the tournament due to self-imposed sanctions, though would’ve made it otherwise.
Miami was a bit of a surprise but played strong all season finishing third overall.
Anyone who finishes in the top six usually has a chance at winning their conference. This is especially true in the ACC where the top six were separated by only three games. The best tiebreaker is head to head. UNC plays each of these teams once.
That means the winner will have a huge advantage over the loser.
As in the previous category, UNC gets two of these games at home. If the Heels can hold home court then they will be in great shape to win the ACC. Winning the ACC is just part of what is needed to reach the pinnacle.
So You Want to be a National Contender?
Mar 5, 2016; Durham, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils fans taunt North Carolina Tar Heels forward Justin Jackson (44) as he throws the ball into play against the Duke Blue Devils in the first half of their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports
@ Duke 2/9
Virginia 2/18
@ Virginia 2/27
Duke 3/4
Duke and Virginia, along with UNC, compose the top of the ACC this season.
All three are ranked in ESPN way too early top 10. Virginia and Duke are both top five and the Blue Devils actually hold the one spot. In other words, these three teams will be National Title contenders. It also means all three will be fighting for one seeds in the tournament.
If UNC wants to win it all, a one seed certainly helps that cause. What’s the best way to get a one seed?
Winning the conference helps, but beating other top five teams is better. Duke was a one seed two seasons ago without winning the ACC regular season or ACC tournament.
Why? Because they had too many big wins to get overlooked.
Also, Carolina gets a true test this season as they play both teams twice. That means if they lose on the road they can still win at home. This gives the committee more evidence when making their final decision.
Mar 27, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Nate Britt (0) reacts after defeating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the championship game in the East regional of the NCAA Tournament at Wells Fargo Center. North Carolina won 88-74. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
All in all the Heels have an interesting ACC schedule. Six of their nine road games are against the bottom half of last years ACC standings. However, they finish the season playing eight out of ten games against the top six of those same standings. That includes two against both Virginia and Duke. Winning home court advantage will be key.
If UNC goes 9-0 at home then they have a legit shot at the conference. If they cant a top three finish may be the best they can do.
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