College Basketball

Texas Basketball in NCAA Tournament - Is There Any Chance?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 5:17 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

Fansided, James Caldwell/FanSided via Hook'em Headlines

Mar 17, 2016; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Shaka Smart speaks to the media during a practice day before the first round of the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Is it possible for the Texas Basketball team to make the NCAA Tournament without winning the Big 12 tournament?

The thought of Texas Basketball qualifying for the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team sounds ridiculous at this point in the season. After all, this is officially a rebuilding job after Texas lost at home to TCU in early January.

But, forgive us if we’re still riding a big wave after Andrew Jones snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against Oklahoma on Monday night. Plus, Texas plays in the Big 12, which is considered one of the strongest conferences in college basketball.

So, what are the chances that Texas could sneak into the Big Dance without winning the Big 12 tourney? It’s highly unlikely, but let’s see why Lloyd Christmas would say there’s still a chance…

Jan 23, 2017; Austin, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Andrew Jones (1) reacts against the Oklahoma Sooners during the second half at the Frank Erwin Center. The Longhorns won 84-83. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Why Texas Basketball Could Make NCAA Tournament

What prompted this review was not only Andrew Jones’ game-winner against Oklahoma but also Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections on ESPN.com.

Lunardi has seven Big 12 teams in the tournament, including TCU and Texas Tech. Now, if you’re a Longhorns fan, you’re thinking that the Longhorns are definitely better than the Horned Frogs and Red Raiders. Of course, this year is a little different from the past, oh, 20 seasons of college basketball.

This year, the teams in Fort Worth and Lubbock actually are better than the Horns. Watching Texas play TCU in January, it felt like the Longhorns were the better team, but they’re just too young to complete a game. That was almost the case against OU on Monday night until Eric Davis and Andrew Jones decided they had enough of losing close games.

Texas has to prove they are better than TCU by getting revenge in Ft. Worth on February 4. They also have to beat Tech at home on Feb. 1 and on the road on March 1.

It would also help if Texas beats Georgia this Saturday to beat a second SEC team this season. One of Texas’ biggest wins this season is a home victory over Alabama in December.

Texas also needs to knock off either West Virginia in Morgantown on Feb. 20 or Kansas at home on Feb. 25. They also can’t afford any more bad losses. Essentially, Texas needs to run the table in Big 12 play going forward.

The Horns survived the gauntlet of WVU, Baylor, and Kansas. Now, the schedule is a little more balanced with winnable games mixed with tough games like a road trip to West Virginia, then home against Kansas and Baylor at the end of the regular season.

If Texas can’t beat Georgia, Tech, and TCU these next three games, then this discussion is over. But, if the young Horns can turn the big victory over Oklahoma into momentum for the stretch run, then maybe Shaka Smart has a chance to get in the tournament without needing to win the Big 12 tournament.

Jan 11, 2017; Austin, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Kerwin Roach II (12) reacts against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs during the second half at the Frank Erwin Center. The Horned Frogs won 64-61. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Why Texas Basketball Will Not Make NCAA Tournament

The Longhorns’ record is the most obvious reason why Texas Basketball will not make the Big Dance. The team is now 8-12 overall, 2-6 in the conference, 0-3 on neutral courts, and 0-5 in true road games.

The Longhorns absolutely need to win on the road against Georgia in the Big 12-SEC clash on Saturday. They also need to grab some road wins against TCU, Tech, the Oklahoma teams, and even West Virginia.

The team is also very young and inconsistent. Perhaps the Longhorns will grow up and take a big step forward after beating Oklahoma. But, before Monday night, Texas offered little evidence of being able to execute late-game situations to win games.

If you are looking for a statistical breakdown, consider the following numbers that are not in Texas’ favor. But, there are so many Big 12 games out there that Texas’ numbers could really jump with some key wins.

– Texas RPI: #105 in all of college basketball. This is definitely not where Texas wants to be as the worst team in the Big 12 behind #81 Oklahoma. Meanwhile, TCU is #24 and Tech is #59.

– Texas Offensive Quotient: #143, just ahead of Eastern Washington, who Texas beat handily earlier in the year.

– Texas Defensive Efficiency: #30, just ahead of Texas A&M. This stat captures how Texas has been able to hang in every Big 12 conference game because of their solid defense. It’s the offense at #143 that continues to let down the team.

– Texas Adjusted Scoring Margin: #54, just behind #53 Tennessee, coached by former Horns head coach Rick Barnes.

Overall, it does not look good for Texas in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. This young Longhorns team hurt themselves in the non-conference season and struggled out of the gate in Big 12 play.

Right now, their best win is against #29 Oklahoma State. Yeah, the Cowboys are at the bottom of the Big 12 Standings and sitting in the RPI Top 30.

More from Hook'em Headlines

It goes to show that because of the Big 12’s strength, there is a chance for Texas. They just have to win almost every game the rest of the season.

share

Get more from College Basketball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

College Basketball

Texas Longhorns