Is Duke ready for a serious run at the national title? While the
Blue Devils are positioned for a top seed, most pundits see them
being a second tier title hopeful behind sexier teams like Kansas
and Kentucky. The knock on Duke is that they take the opposition
out behind the woodshed at home but lose that killer instinct on
the road. All four of their losses have come away from Cameron
Indoor Stadium.
But really, don't all good teams have most of their struggles
on the road? Both of Kentucky's losses on the season were away
games and the same holds true for Kansas. Therefore, I'm not buying
into the notion that Duke should be shortchanged because of the
occasional road game hiccup. So why do I feel like this team isn't
being taken seriously this season?
The program's recent history hasn't helped matters. Duke
hasn't won an ACC regular season title since the 2005-06 season and
it's been nearly six years since the program's last Final Four
appearance. Believe it or not, that's the longest Final Four
drought for Duke since Mike Krzyzewski took over the program back
in 1980.
In the 90's, we got used to penciling the Dukes into a Final
Four slot in our office brackets, and more often than not they made
us look good. Now that the Final Four is no longer the Coaches vs.
Krzyzewski Classic, the perception is that they can't dribble and
chew gum at the same time in Durham. Granted, I'm not saying this
edition of the Blue Devils is as loaded as the runner up team from
1998-99 or the championship team from 2000-01. I'll definitely take
my accident case to the firm of Battier, Boozer & Dunleavy
before I even consider going with Scheyer, Singler & Smith. But
Duke's current trio of distinction is a pretty solid bunch. They're
all averaging over 17 points a contest and hoist most of the long
distance shots for a team that's 21st nationally in 3-point
percentage at 39.1%
Now that I bring up statistics, it's in that area where
Duke's strengths are most evident. That 39.1% mark from 3-point
range is in line with what last year's national champion North
Carolina team (they shot 38.7%). But the similarities don't stop
there. In terms of offensive efficiency (that would be points
scored per 100 possessions), North Carolina led the country last
season at 124.2. Currently, it's Duke that's topping the offensive
efficiency ratings at 122.4.
If you flip it over to defensive efficiency, Coach K's team
is actually performing a little better than Carolina did last
season. The Blue Devils currently check in at third nationally at
85.9, compared to an 89.6 mark for the Heels a season ago. The
ability to take care of the rock is arguably the biggest reason
that the Heels made their title run last season. They finished
fourth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.45. Duke is
definitely in that ballpark right now with a 1.28
assist-to-turnover ratio, a figure that ranks 28th in the country.
I'll admit that comparing a top five team from this season to
last season's national champ isn't an apples to apples type of
thing. But it does show that this Duke team is actually pretty
doggone good once you crunch the numbers. Hey, don't get me wrong,
this team has its weak spots, foremost among them being a
frontcourt that won't keep Bill Self or Jim Calipari up at night
with fits of worry.
But once the dust has settled on Selection Sunday, really
study the bracket that Duke makes it into. You might get a 90's
kind of feeling all over again.
