NCAA Basketball: What teams have the best shot to win a National Title?
Feb 18, 2016; Lexington, KY, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Isaiah Briscoe (13) shakes hands with fans after the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Rupp Arena. Kentucky defeated Tennessee 80-70. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
Busting Brackets is ranking NCAA basketball teams into tiers based on the likeliness of them winning the National Championship.
College basketball is one of the toughest sports to predict on a yearly basis. There are Cinderella stories, dramatic storylines and story book endings. But it seems as if every year the cream of the crop rises when the Final Four rolls around.
Last year, there was no clear cut National Championship favorite, but when push came to shove, two top-10 teams, North Carolina and Villanova, were competing for the rights to raise the trophy.
The unpredictability during the regular season, Championship Week and the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament is something that college basketball fans marvel at. However, when the top programs/teams in the nation are battling in the Final Four for the coveted National Title, it makes the sport that much more intriguing.
There are exceptions to the rule (like Butler and VCU reaching the Final Four in 2011), but in 2016-17, there seems to be an obvious favorite, at least in the preseason projections.
That doesn’t mean that this team will cut down the nets at the beginning of April. Instead, it means that they come into the regular season with a clear target on their back as the best team in the country.
The best news for college basketball fanatics: There are programs that are capable of knocking down this giant.
With that mind, Busting Brackets will place teams into five tiers based upon our view of who has the greatest chance of winning the 2017 National Championship.
Mar 13, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Connecticut Huskies head coach Kevin Ollie cuts the net after defeated the Memphis Tigers 72-58 to win the AAC Conference tournament at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Tier Five: UCLA, Purdue, Dayton, Florida State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Rhode Island, UConn
Tier five features eight teams that all are unlikely to win it all, but do indeed have an outside shot of making a run in March if they get hot at the right time.
We’ll start with the UCLA Bruins, who could potentially be a top-15 team nationally. The issue with Steve Alford’s club has been their inconsistencies over the years. Two years ago, the Bruins were a Sweet 16 team, yet this past season, with a similar amount of talent, they finished 15-17 overall and in 10th place in the Pac-12.
In 2016-17, UCLA has a roster that has ‘tier four’ potential, however, at this point we’ll keep the Bruins in tier five as Alford tries to save his job.
More from Busting Brackets
Purdue has an elite front court with Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas returning. But Matt Painter’s team also continues to have point guard issues. In the 2016 NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers blew a double-digit lead in the first round to Arkansas-Little Rock due to their inability to break the press.
Dayton always seems to be a team that lurks in the background in March. The Flyers have depth, experience and versatility this season.
The Seminoles may have the interesting roster in this tier. Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes return to lead the ‘Noles back court and Jonathan Isaac is a raw freshman who should create plenty of match-up problems at the four position.
Mick Cronin could have his best offensive team ever at Cincinnati. Jacob Evans, Troy Caupain, Kyle Washington, Gary Clark and Jarron Cumblerand will lead the Bearcats on that end of the floor.
West Virginia lost a key component in Devin Williams up front, but the Mountaineers rely on their scheme. ‘Press Virginia’ once again has the aggressiveness and depth to be a factor when March rolls around.
E.C. Matthews, Hassan Martin, Jarvis Garrett, Jared Terrell and Kuron Iverson return to Rhode Island. The Rams are hungry to reach their first NCAA Tournament since 1999 and have the veteran talent to steal the show in the Big Dance.
Finally, the UConn Huskies should never be counted out when it comes to the postseason. The Huskies have an intriguing backcourt that consists of Jalen Adams, Alterique Gilbert and Rodney Purvis. The best Huskie teams (the two National Championship squads) had lethal guards who were explosive and didn’t turn the basketball over.
Mar 17, 2016; Denver , CO, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few grimaces court side in the second half during Seton Hall vs Gonzaga in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Tier Four: Louisville, Gonzaga, Indiana
Rick Pitino has spoken very highly of the Cardinals’ athleticism, depth, length and quickness this off-season, however, as I mentioned in a separate post, the team is filled with unknown’s. If Donovan Mitchell can take the next step and the Cardinals can figure out their rotation up front, they could be a National Title contender.
Regardless, Pitino’s squad is a top-five team in the ACC and will be well tested before the NCAA Tournament.
Moving to the West Coast Conference, Mark Few has his most talented roster in recent memory. The Gonzaga Bulldogs possess a well-balance team that consists of returnees, transfers and freshman.
Przemek Karnowski is back from a back injury, while Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss, Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams III and freshman Zach Collins will provide extra punch at their respective positions.
The Indiana Hoosiers have a legitimate Big Three and are riding high following the momentum they received by defeating the Kentucky Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament last season. Tom Crean is now warming up to the fan base and Thomas Bryant should be a force to be reckoned with on the block.
Mar 18, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo looks on during the second half of the first round against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in the 2016 NCAA Tournament at Scottrade Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Tier Three: Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan State, Arizona, Virginia, Wisconsin
The Musketeers very well could be apart of ‘tier two’ but Myles Davis has an uncertain future at the school and Xavier is still trying to successfully replace Jalen Reynolds and James Farr in the front court.
Chris Mack returns Trevon Bluiett, breakout candidate Edmond Sumner and wing man J.P. Macura to a balanced roster that will pose many mismatch problems.
North Carolina won’t have Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson in the fold for 2016-17, however, Roy Williams’ team is still loaded with potential. Joel Berry II showed flashes of brilliance in the NCAA Tournament, Justin Jackson will likely shoot it better in 2016-17, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have the athleticism and strength to anchor the paint and Theo Pinson’s defense is also helpful.
Another team that is losing key veterans is Michigan State. The Spartans lost Denzel Valentine, Matt Costello and Bryn Forbes to graduation, but Tom Izzo brings in a highly touted recruiting class. Five-star small forward Miles Bridges is the gem of the class, while Josh Langford, Cassius Winston and Nick Ward will almost certainly play massive minutes in year one.
Sean Miller’s Arizona Wildcats will likely be sorting out their roles in their backcourt during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Kobi Simmons, Rawle Alkins, Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Allonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen all play their best with the ball in their hands.
Down low, the Wildcats have future pro Lauri Markkanen, Dusan Ristic, Ray Smith (who is coming off a torn ACL) and Chance Comanche. If Arizona can improve their defense in 2016-17, they will challenge Oregon in the Pac-12.
The ACC has three teams in this tier, as Virginia also has the coaching, experience and point guard play to do damage on the biggest stage in college hoops. London Perrantes will be the leader of the Cavaliers, but as long as Tony Bennett is the face of the program, their defense will always be tops in the nation.
Wisconsin returns virtually every piece from last season’s Sweet 16 team. Nigel Hayes must become more efficient and Ethan Happ has to average close to a double double for the Badgers to win it all. Bronson ‘Big Shot’ Koenig is back in Madison as the leader at the point guard position.
Mar 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari shouts during the second half of the championship game against Texas A&M Aggies of the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Tier Two: Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas, Oregon
The Kentucky Wildcats are almost always in the National Title picture. The reason: They re-load with four or five star recruits who are capable of immediately putting their stamp on the game.
This year, the Wildcats add five five-star recruits, including Edrice ‘Bam’ Adebayo, De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones. Isaiah Briscoe and Derek Willis are back to give the ‘Cats a veteran punch.
Villanova won’t have Omari Spellman this season, but the team has won three straight Big East titles. Jay Wright’s team is versatile, deep, talented and skilled. Josh Hart is a Big East Player of the Year candidate, Kris Jenkins can stretch the floor and Mikal Bridges can defend with the best of them. That’s not even counting Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and Darryl Reynolds, who all bring different skill sets to the table.
And the Wildcats are the defending National Champs!
Kansas always seems to trip up in March. But this year, they have an elite backcourt, solid front court and one of the best freshman in the country.
Josh Jackson has Andrew Wiggins-like expectations, and should be in the running for the Wooden Award. Kansas’ weight room has helped a few Jayhawks transcend their bodies and with Bill Self roaming the sidelines, this team will be top-five for the majority (if not all) of the year.
Then there’s Oregon. The Ducks bring forth more experience, depth and versatility than last season’s Elite Eight team. They are searching for their first Final Four appearance since 1999, but need currently injured four-man Dillon Brooks to be 100 percent.
The Ducks will face a tougher road to the Final Four this season, so Dana Altman’s squad will have to get their role allocation down pat during conference play.
March 24, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Grayson Allen (3) moves the ball against Oregon Ducks forward Jordan Bell (1) during the second half of the semifinal game in the West regional of the NCAA Tournament at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Tier One: Duke
I wouldn’t say that Duke is far and away the favorite to win the National Title, but they definitely the favorite at this point in the “off-season.”
duke
Ball Durham 20hFormer Blue Devil Quinn Cook Signs With NBA Team
More headlines around FanSided:
3d - Duke Women's Basketball Lands First Commit in 2017 Recruiting Class3d - Blue Devils Will Compete in 2017 Nike PK80 Tournament4d - Elizabeth Williams Wins WNBA's Most Improved Player Award5d - Phil Knight Invitational Welcomes College Basketball Elite To Portland In 20175d - NCAA Basketball: Portland to host 2017 non-conference tournament in honor of Phil KnightMore News at Ball Durham
The scary part about the Blue Devils is that not only do they have the top recruiting class in the nation (at least according to some recruiting outlets), but they return their top scorer, Grayson Allen, a key role player, Matt Jones, senior big man, Amile Jefferson, sharp shooter, Luke Kennard, and emerging big man, Chase Jeter.
Duke also adds four five-star recruits, Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden, and one four-star talent, Javin DeLaurier. Giles is the best of the bunch and could become the number one overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft if he recovers successfully from his knee injury.
The topping on the cake is the fact that this team is coached by possibly the best coach in all of sports: Mike Krzyzewski. Coach K has dealt with many unique personalities with Team USA and will almost have to do the same with this team Duke team. He’ll have to keep everyone happy despite having to balance each players’ minutes and scoring opportunities.
While this Duke team may get compared to the 2014-15 Kentucky team, the Blue Devils are not going undefeated. The ACC is loaded and there is no way they run through the league without taking one single loss.
If the Blue Devils aren’t a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament, I would be beyond shocked, but they are beatable.
This article originally appeared on 
