NCAA Basketball: Sunday's Best Bets, including Super Bowl prediction
Feb 4, 2017; Houston, TX USA; General overall view of New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons helmets and NFL Wilson official Duke Super Bowl LI logo football at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Best Bets comes back this week with three NCAA basketball Sunday picks and a bonus Super Bowl break down.
Last Week: 3-0
Overall: 17-18
Check out past editions of this feature Week two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight and nine.
Last week on Best Bets we said after an undefeated week it was “heat check” time. Picks were made in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and our heat check went about as good as this.
Best Bets got killed. A rough outing of 3-7 against the spread has us reeling heading into one of the biggest gambling days of the year. However, we firmly believe that the only way out is to get back on the horse.
Today’s games are intriguing match-ups involving teams at the top of the Big Ten, ACC and another ACC school with whom there is still room on the bandwagon after a tough week. Best Bets will also offer our take on Super Bowl 51 and predict who will come out on top.
So, stay with us this week. We’re confident we’ll dial up the right picks to get us back on track. Let’s take a look at this Sunday’s picks.
Jan 24, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Zak Showalter (3) looks to pass during the game with the Penn State Nittany Lions at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin defeated Penn State 82-55. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers (-12.5) vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Wisconsin has owned the Hoosiers through the years. Indiana has not won in Madison since 1998 and Tom Crean is just 2-16 all-time against the Badgers.
One of the bigger problems for the Hoosiers could be their style of play. Indiana likes to play up-tempo and that sometimes leads to turnovers and quick shots.
Contrast that with Wisconsin, who is slower, more methodical and doesn’t commit as many turnovers. The Badgers usually control the pace of the game against the Hoosiers when they play and Indiana is not as effective offensively in the half court.
Another pain point for the Hoosiers the past two season: sophomore forward Ethan Happ. The crafty big fella has destroyed Indiana to the tune of 18 points and seven rebounds in the three times they’ve played each other. Expect another big game from him today.
The man charged with stopping Happ is Thomas Bryant. He helped Indiana pull back from the abyss on Wednesday with 31 points in their 3OT victory over Penn State in Bloomington. Bryant needs to challenge Happ on the block and not settle for outside shots. Happ’s defense is tremendous, but for the Hoosiers to win, Bryant needs an all-conference type game.
My pick today is Indiana. Most of the games between Wisconsin and Indiana have been close through the years and the 12.5 spread seems a bit high. Take the Hoosiers on the road, though I expect Wisconsin to still win the game.
Pick: Indiana Hoosiers (+12.5)
Next: Clemson at No. 15 Florida State
Jan 28, 2017; Syracuse, NY, USA; Florida State Seminoles forward Jonathan Isaac (1) dunks the ball as Syracuse Orange forward Tyler Roberson (21) looks on during the second half of a game at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse won the contest 82-72. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
No. 15 Florida State Seminoles (-7) vs. Clemson Tigers
What a crazy couple of weeks for Florida State.
Near the end of January, the Seminoles had a top 10 ranking and a 6-1 conference record in the ACC. It seemed as if they were through the most difficult stretch of their schedule (@ No. 12 UVA, No. 21 VT, No. 7 Duke, @ No. 11 UNC, vs. No. 15 ND and vs No. 11 LOU), and managed to only lose once! Everyone was on the bandwagon! And then…two straight losses to unranked Georgia Tech and Syracuse. The bandwagon lost its wheels.
The Seminoles got back on track by taking Miami to the woodshed on the road and currently stand just one back of Louisville in the ACC.
This is an interesting line today. A consensus top-15 team at home against an ACC bottom-feeder is only favored by seven. Clemson has won two in a row against Pitt and Georgia Tech, but those teams are a combined 6-15 in conference play.
Florida State is 3-1-1 at home against the spread in their last five games. Clemson is 2-3 against the spread in their last five games on the road.
I think Florida State’s defense will cause a lot of problems for a Tiger team that sometimes struggles shooting the basketball. Take Florida State giving seven today at home, in what I think is a relatively easy pick.
Pick: Florida State Seminoles (-7)
Next: No. 20 Notre Dame at No. 12 North Carolina
Jan 31, 2017; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry II (2) shoots as Pittsburgh Panthers guard Cameron Johnson (23) defends in the second half. The Tar Heels defeated the Panthers 80-78 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
No. 20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels (-8.5)
This is a game of teams going in the opposite directions.
Notre Dame has lost four out of their last five after a 5-0 start in ACC play. North Carolina is 8-1 over their last nine and hold sole possession of first place in the ACC.
I think North Carolina rolls in this one. The Tar Heels are 4-1 against the spread over their last five games. Notre Dame is 1-4 in their last five games, both losses to ranked teams have come by double digits. A battle with No. 12 North Carolina is a tall order.
Many of the betters seem to agree. North Carolina is receiving 91 percent of the bets so far, according to VegasInsider. Coach Mike Brey for Notre Dame always has his team ready to play, but the length and athleticism North Carolina possesses will be too much to handle. Expect North Carolina to roll by between 12-15.
Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels (-8.5)
Next: Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
Feb 4, 2017; Houston, TX USA; General overall view of New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons helmets at NRG Stadium prior to Super Bowl LI. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (-3)
There is only one way to beat Tom Brady in the playoffs. You have to get pressure on him.
That is really what the game comes down to today. If the Falcons are able to pressure the 39-year old quarterback for New England, they have a chance to win the Super Bowl. If not, Brady will pick them apart and New England will eventually take care of the Falcons for their fifth Super Bowl win of the Brady/Belichick era.
I am skeptical that Atlanta’s front can bring pressure themselves, so expect the Falcons to dial up some blitzes. That is a risky maneuver.
If the blitzes get to Brady and the Falcons can get stops, Matt Ryan can lead them to a victory, but if not, Brady will find the open man and methodically shred the Falcons secondary.
I think Brady shreds them.
Expect Atlanta to hang around, maybe even through three-quarters, but I don’t think they have enough defense to win this Super Bowl. Take the Pats and expect them to win by 7-10 points.
Pick: New England Patriots (-3)
Enjoy the games today and good luck padding your wallet! Check back next week to see a recap and more selections as we roll through the heart of the college basketball season.
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