Bubble Watch: Who's in and who's out?

BY foxsports • March 3, 2011

Boston University, Hampton, Texas San-Antonio, Akron and Princeton all locked up automatic bids on Saturday. Ditto for Memphis, who would have been sweating it out on Sunday if it didn't knock off UTEP.

Here is our cheatsheet:

Punched Ticket — Earned an automatic berth via winning its league tourney.
Buy — No matter what, these guys will be in the NCAA tournament.
Defensive Buy — Looking good; barring something crazy, they are in.
Hold — Status is still up in the air.
Sell — These guys are on the outside looking in; likely NIT-bound.

PUNCHED TICKET

MEMPHIS—, Beat UTEP, 67-66, to win the C-USA tournament
Record: 25-9, 10-6 (4th in C-USA)
RPI: 30
SOS: 45
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
KenPom.com Ranking: 92
Signature wins: at Gonzaga
Bad losses: at Rice; at East Carolina
Outlook: The Tigers didn’t have to sweat it out on Sunday after their comeback victory over UTEP to win the C-USA tourney.
Remaining: Season over

WASHINGTON—, Beat Arizona, 77-75 (OT), to win the Pac-10 tournament Record: 23-10, 9-7 (3rd in the Pac-10)
RPI: 38
SOS: 52
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-4
KenPom.com Ranking: 15
Signature wins: UCLA (twice); Arizona (twice); at USC
Bad losses: at Oregon; at Stanford; Washington State (twice)
Outlook: The Huskies were in good shape, anyway, but now they are a lock – and improved their seed with the overtime win against Arizona in the title game.
Remaining: Season over

BUY

RICHMOND—, Beat Temple, 58-54, in the A-10 semifinals
Record: 26-7, 13-3 (third in the A-10)
RPI: 54
SOS: 141
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
KenPom.com Ranking: 49
Signature wins: Purdue; Temple
Bad losses: Georgia Tech; URI; at Iona
Outlook: The Spiders were in prior to the win on Saturday against Temple, but now they are a lock.
Remaining: Sunday vs. Dayton in the A-10 finals

MICHIGAN—, Lost to Ohio State, 68-61, in the Big Ten semifinals
Record: 20-13, 9-9 (tied for 4th in the Big Ten)
RPI: 48
SOS: 19
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 7-8
KenPom.com Ranking: 41
Signature wins: Michigan State (twice); Illinois; Clemson
Bad losses: at Indiana; at Northwestern; Minnesota
Outlook: The Wolverines did enough to go dancing despite the loss to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten semis.
Remaining: Season over

DEFENSIVE BUY

CLEMSON—, Lost to North Carolina, 92-87 (OT), in ACC semifinals
Record: 21-11, 9-7 (Tied for 4th in the ACC)
RPI: 50
SOS: 70
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-4
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-5
KenPom.com Ranking: 24
Signature wins: Florida State; BC (twice)
Bad losses: at Virginia; at South Carolina; at N.C. State
Outlook: The Tigers blew a late lead to North Carolina, but Brad Brownell’s team did enough to earn a spot in the 68-team field.
Remaining: Season over

MICHIGAN STATE—, Lost to Penn State, 61-48, in the Big Ten semifinals
Record: 19-14, 9-9 (Tied for 4th in the Big Ten)
RPI: 39
SOS: 10
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-8
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-12
KenPom.com Ranking: 37
Signature wins: Wisconsin; Purdue; Illinois; Washington
Bad losses: at Iowa
Outlook: The Spartans had a chance to get 20 wins and become a virtual lock for the Big Dance. Tom Izzo’s team should still get in, although it may end up playing in the First Four in Dayton.
Remaining: Season over

VIRGINIA TECH—, Lost to Duke, 77-63, in the ACC semifinals.
Record: 21-11, 9-7 (Tied for 4th in the ACC)
RPI: 61
SOS: 90
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-4
KenPom.com Ranking: 31
Signature wins: Duke; Florida State (twice)
Bad losses: Virginia (twice); at Georgia Tech
Outlook: The Hokies should be in the field after the win against Florida State earlier in the week, but could end up playing in Dayton.
Remaining: Season over

PENN STATE—, Beat Michigan State, 61-48, in the Big Ten semifinals
Record: 19-13, 9-9 (Tied for 4th in the Big Ten)
RPI: 43
SOS: 6
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-5
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
KenPom.com Ranking: 46
Signature wins: Wisconsin (twice); Illinois; Michigan State (twice)
Bad losses: None
Outlook: It’ll be awfully difficult to keep the Nittany Lions out of the Big Dance after their wins against Wisconsin and Michigan State en route to an appearance in the Big Ten title game.
Remaining: Sunday vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten title game

HOLD

ALABAMA—, Lost to Kentucky, 72-58, in SEC semifinals
Record: 21-11, 12-4 (1st in the SEC West)
RPI: 77
SOS: 127
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-3
KenPom.com Ranking: 47
Signature wins: Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia (twice)
Bad losses: Iowa; at Providence; at Arkansas
Outlook: The Crimson Tide will be sweating it out on Sunday. This one could go either way.
Remaining: Season over

HARVARD—, Lost to Princeton, 63-62, in the Ivy League playoff game
Record: 23-6, 12-2 (Tied for 1st in the Ivy)
RPI: 32
SOS: 155
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-2
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
KenPom.com Ranking: 77
Signature wins: Boston College; Colorado
Bad losses: Yale
Outlook: The Crimson lost to Princeton on a buzzer-beater – and now Tommy Amaker’s team will hope to get an at-large bid on Sunday.
Remaining: Season over

SELL

UTEP—, Lost to Memphis, 67-66, in the championship game of C-USA tournament
Record: 25-9, 11-5 (2nd in C-USA)
RPI: 60
SOS: 97
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 0-1
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
KenPom.com Ranking: 64
Signature wins: Michigan; Memphis
Bad losses: Georgia Tech; Pacific; at East Carolina
Outlook: Tim Floyd’s team may have blown a chance to get to the Big Dance by failing to close out Memphis in the C-USA title game.
Remaining: Season over

OTHER TEAMS ON THE BUBBLE: Tennessee, Villanova, Marquette, Saint Mary’s, Colorado, Georgia, Boston College, Missouri State, UAB, USC, New Mexico, VCU.


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