Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the Big East, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
The Big Picture
In the three seasons since its formation amid a wave of football-driven realignment moves, the Big East has cemented itself as one of the nation’s top conferences. In 2015–16 alone, it sent half of its teams to the NCAA tournament, its regular-season champion cut down the nets in Houston and it produced a point guard whom both NBA rookies and general managers voted as their favorite for the league’s Rookie of The Year award. This season the Big East should maintain the quality it has exhibited throughout its existence. The reigning champion Wildcats are in position to make a run at a repeat, while teams such as Xavier and Creighton look capable of making deep NCAA tournament runs. Plus, the conference’s solid depth makes another five bids a distinct possibility. This isn’t the old Big East, but it’s pretty good.
Player of the year: Josh Hart, Villanova
After leading Villanova to a national championship last season, Hart declared for the draft, only later to withdraw and return for another season headlining the Big East’s best team. Not only does Hart project as the top player in this conference, we consider him the strongest competitor to Duke’s Grayson Allen for national player of the year. It’s unlikely Hart will post a gaudy points-per-game figure because the Wildcats should get ample scoring from a variety of sources, but his combination of offensive efficiency and shot volume, defensive versatility and rebounding ability makes the senior an indispensable two-way cog.
Newcomer of the Year: Marcus Foster, Creighton
Foster left Kansas State for Creighton after Wildcats coach Bruce Weber dismissed Foster two seasons into his college career, a decision that followed a previous suspension for an unspecified violation of team rules. Though Foster’s points-per-game average dipped to 12.5 as a sophomore after he recorded 15.5 ppg as a freshman, we project him to be one of the nation’s highest-scoring transfers this season. Foster will team with another former transfer (Boston University), diminutive point guard Maurice Watson Jr., in one of the nation’s top backcourts to lead the best Bluejays team since Doug McDermott left college.
All-Conference Team & Sixth Man
PG: Maurice Watson Jr., Creighton
SF: Josh Hart, Villanova
SF: Trevon Bluiett, Xavier
PF: Kelan Martin, Butler
PF: Angel Delgado, Seton Hall
6th man: SF/PF: Kris Jenkins, Villanova
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | Villanova | 14–4 | 16–2 |
| 2 | Xavier | 12–6 | 14–4 |
| 3 | Creighton | 10–8 | 9–9 |
| 4 | Butler | 10–8 | 10–8 |
| 5 | Seton Hall | 10–8 | 12–6 |
| 6 | Georgetown | 10–8 | 7–11 |
| 7 | Marquette | 9–9 | 8–10 |
| 8 | Providence | 7–11 | 10–8 |
| 9 | St. John's | 5–13 | 1–17 |
| 10 | DePaul | 3–15 | 3–15 |
The Skinny on Each Team
1. Villanova (14–4)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Josh Hart | Sr | SG/SF | 16.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 124.2 | 23% | 79% |
| Kris Jenkins | Sr | SF/PF | 14.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 124.3 | 21% | 75% |
| Jalen Brunson | So | PG | 14.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 115.0 | 22% | 82% |
| Eric Paschall | So | SF | 9.8 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 104.9 | 23% | 54% |
| Phil Booth | Jr | PG/SG | 8.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 115.2 | 20% | 60% |
| Mikal Bridges | So | SF/PF | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 124.1 | 16% | 57% |
| Darryl Reynolds | Sr | PF | 5.4 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 118.4 | 13% | 56% |
2. Xavier (12–6)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Trevon Bluiett | Jr | SF | 16.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 121.6 | 22% | 85% |
| Edmond Sumner | So | PG | 12.4 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 109.8 | 23% | 75% |
| J.P. Macura | Jr | SG | 12.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 123.8 | 19% | 73% |
| RaShid Gaston | Sr | PF | 9.9 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 111.5 | 21% | 55% |
| Myles Davis | Sr | SG/PG | 9.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 119.8 | 19% | 39% |
| Malcolm Bernard | Sr | SG | 7.0 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 97.7 | 21% | 50% |
| Kaiser Gates | So | SF/PF | 5.6 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 108.8 | 16% | 46% |
3. Creighton (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Maurice Watson Jr. | Sr | PG | 15.6 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 112.6 | 27% | 85% |
| Marcus Foster | Jr | SG | 14.2 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 111.3 | 23% | 71% |
| Cole Huff | Sr | SF | 12.6 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 117.9 | 20% | 65% |
| Isaiah Zierden | Sr | SG | 8.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 125.8 | 15% | 60% |
| Khyri Thomas | So | SG | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 110.0 | 18% | 57% |
| Justin Patton | Fr | C | 6.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 106.1 | 18% | 49% |
| Zach Hanson | Sr | C | 6.3 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 120.2 | 19% | 36% |
4. Butler (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Kelan Martin | Jr | PF | 18.1 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 114.0 | 26% | 81% |
| Andrew Chrabascz | Sr | PF | 12.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 124.6 | 18% | 80% |
| Kethan Savage | Sr | SG | 11.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 106.3 | 23% | 65% |
| Tyler Lewis | Sr | PG | 10.9 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 120.3 | 19% | 81% |
| Avery Woodson | Sr | SG | 10.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 112.9 | 18% | 61% |
| Tyler Wideman | Jr | PF | 8.6 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 117.7 | 17% | 65% |
| Joey Brunk | Fr | PF/C | 5.3 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 103.4 | 18% | 39% |
5. Seton Hall (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Khadeen Carrington | Jr | PG | 16.2 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 107.2 | 24% | 85% |
| Desi Rodriguez | Jr | SF | 14.7 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 110.5 | 23% | 75% |
| Angel Delgado | Jr | PF/C | 12.0 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 112.8 | 20% | 77% |
| Myles Powell | Fr | SG | 7.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 101.3 | 22% | 44% |
| Ismael Sanogo | Jr | SF | 6.2 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 108.5 | 15% | 69% |
| Michael Nzei | So | PF | 5.2 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 110.8 | 16% | 42% |
| Eron Gordon | Fr | SG | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 99.2 | 19% | 30% |
6. Georgetown (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| L.J. Peak | Jr | SG/SF | 13.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 111.4 | 24% | 66% |
| Rodney Pryor | Sr | SG | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 101.2 | 22% | 74% |
| Isaac Copeland | Jr | PF | 11.8 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 113.3 | 19% | 79% |
| Jessie Govan | So | C | 8.5 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 107.3 | 21% | 52% |
| Marcus Derrickson | So | PF | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 110.2 | 19% | 53% |
| Bradley Hayes | Sr | C | 7.1 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 104.8 | 22% | 45% |
| Jonathan Mulmore | Jr | PG | 7.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 100.2 | 19% | 55% |
7. Marquette (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Haanif Cheatham | So | SG | 12.4 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 106.9 | 21% | 73% |
| Luke Fischer | Sr | C | 12.1 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 117.0 | 20% | 70% |
| Andrew Rowsey | Jr | PG/SG | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 110.2 | 22% | 63% |
| Katin Reinhardt | Sr | SG/SF | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 107.9 | 20% | 50% |
| Jajuan Johnson | Sr | SG/SF | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 111.3 | 21% | 45% |
| Sam Hauser | Fr | SF | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 102.9 | 18% | 40% |
| Traci Carter | So | PG | 5.0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 102.0 | 19% | 50% |
8. Providence (7–11)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Rodney Bullock | Jr | PF | 14.7 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 99.3 | 25% | 81% |
| Jalen Lindsey | Jr | SG/SF | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 111.3 | 17% | 83% |
| Isaiah Jackson | So | SG | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 99.8 | 23% | 54% |
| Kyron Cartwright | Jr | PG | 8.3 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 101.2 | 20% | 72% |
| Ryan Fazekas | So | SF | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 110.2 | 16% | 50% |
| Emmitt Holt | Jr | PF | 6.2 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 108.3 | 18% | 47% |
| Alpha Diallo | Fr | SG/SF | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 98.9 | 20% | 40% |
9. St. John’s (5–13)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Bashir Ahmed | Jr | SF | 12.8 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 102.8 | 22% | 74% |
| Marcus LoVett | Fr | PG | 10.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 101.4 | 19% | 82% |
| Kassoum Yakwe | So | PF | 9.8 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 100.0 | 20% | 70% |
| Malik Ellison | So | SG | 9.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 94.9 | 23% | 62% |
| Yankuba Sima | So | C | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 102.8 | 19% | 55% |
| Shamorie Ponds | Fr | PG | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 105.4 | 20% | 48% |
| Richard Freudenberg | Fr | SF | 6.0 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 101.0 | 18% | 43% |
10. DePaul (3–15)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Chris Harrison-Docks | Sr | PG/SG | 11.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 106.8 | 18% | 76% |
| Eli Cain | So | SG | 10.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 103.6 | 21% | 72% |
| Tre'Darius McCallum | Jr | SF | 10.3 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 100.7 | 19% | 73% |
| Darrick Wood | Sr | SG | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 92.3 | 23% | 51% |
| Al Eichelberger | Fr | PF | 5.5 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 98.6 | 18% | 44% |
| Levi Cook | Fr | C | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 96.6 | 18% | 42% |
| Erten Gazi | So | SG | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 97.8 | 14% | 26% |
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