It's appropriate that UFC 131's two headline bouts take place at opposite ends of the weight spectrum, as both Kenny Florian and Shane Carwin will have been thinking of little other than their weight the past few months as they try to revive their careers with the MMA equivalent of a full-body makeover.
Most dramatic is Carwin's, with the former interim heavyweight champion looking like a new man after dropping over 20 pounds in a bid to improve his conditioning. It's an extreme response to his performance against Brock Lesnar at UFC 116, where, with the undisputed title in his grasp, his body seized up at the four-minute mark.
There has to be a question about whether the problem was Carwin's physical conditioning or his match pacing. Having no experience going beyond four minutes in any of his 12 previous fights, Carwin expended a huge amount of energy trying to secure the early victory and the collapse that followed may have been more an indictment of his overly aggressive tactics than him being overly heavy physically.
Likewise, doubt can be cast on Florian's justification for his move down to featherweight. Remarkably, this will be the fourth division in which he's fought inside the Octagon, although admittedly that includes an early campaign at middleweight necessitated solely by his desperation to get onto the first season of "The Ultimate Fighter."
Despite having been a middle-sized fighter at 155 pounds, he's claimed in the past few months that he often felt outmuscled by bigger lightweights such as Sean Sherk, B.J. Penn and, most recently, Gray Maynard. A more skeptical interpretation would be that Florian struggled against those fighters who could outwrestle him and deny him the space to work his technically fluid grappling and Muay Thai.
Such dramatic changes will necessitate a change in both competitors' fighting style.
Carwin's game has been about using his power and size to first bully and then demolish his opponents. Will dropping the bulk lead to him having less strength in the clinch or on takedowns and less power behind his punches? Is the improved speed and conditioning worth sacrificing that strength and power, particularly against a fighter in Junior Dos Santos who is both faster and lighter?
Florian, on the other hand, has tended to be the smaller man, using his speed advantage to beat his opponent to the punch. Now he'll be the one stepping into the Octagon as the bigger, slower man. Can he successfully adjust his fighting style to not only make the most of his newfound strength advantage, but also avoid being caught by the speed of his Diego Nunes?
With so many questions about their ability to thrive after making drastic changes to their bodies, it's impressive that the UFC has put these marketable fighters up against such strong opposition. Dos Santos and Nunes both train at the legendary Black House gym and form part of the impressive stable managed by Ed Soares that includes legendary Pride FC mainstay Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and current world featherweight champion Jose Aldo.
Both Dos Santos and Nunes are looking to send a message by beating their more famous American opponent: Dos Santos that he's ready to challenge for the heavyweight title, and Nunes that he's a marquee fighter who belongs on pay-per-view.
Whatever your thoughts about the changes Carwin and Florian have made to their bodies, one cannot deny that each man is taking a huge gamble in preparation for what are make-or-break fights. Should either man lose Saturday, it's possible this will be the last time either is seen this high up on a card again.
Carwin's not only passed the always-crucial milestone of his 35th birthday, but he's recently had extensive surgery on his back. While a victory will earn him a guaranteed title shot against Cain Velasquez, a second consecutive loss would see him fall from championship contention with relatively little time left in his career to claw his way back.
Florian's mind must wander back to his conversation with Dana White on the set of "MMA Live," where the UFC president said a convincing win over Nunes may earn Florian the next title shot against Aldo. However, he must also be aware that an unsuccessful debut at 145 pounds would only cement his reputation as somebody who chokes in the biggest matches.
Both Carwin and Florian have the skills to defeat their opponents in Vancouver. Both have a range of skills that make them more versatile than their opponent.
Carwin, as a former NCAA Division II champion, should have the edge in wrestling against Dos Santos, who's never even faced a wrestler in the UFC. And while Carwin lacks the technical finesse of Dos Santos when it comes to boxing, he does have the power punches Dos Santos lacks. Meanwhile, Florian's a genuine all-rounder against anybody other than an elite wrestler, with the grappling, takedowns and striking to cause most fighter serious problems.
Pound-for-pound, these two skills should earn the two Americans clear victories over their Brazilian opponents. But the truth is weight matters in mixed martial arts, and if Carwin and Florian have misjudged their dramatic diets, then they'll fail to perform to their full potential at UFC 131.
