The Kelly Pavlik-Sergio Martinez bout on Saturday features two distinctive styles and story lines.
Pavlik wants to regain a place in the pound-for-pound rankings, while the slick and quick Martinez, a natural 154-pounder, again invades the middleweights in search of a monumental victory.
Who will achieve their goals Saturday night? A look at the CompuBox numbers could offer hints.
Pavlik’s offense: At his best Pavlik is a terrifying offensive force. The average middleweight averages 58.6 punches per round, but against Jermain Taylor (first and second fights), Bronco McKart, Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Espino, Pavlik averaged 65.7, 70.4, 88.5, 77.2 and 90.8 punches respectively. And those who responded with an all-out attack paid the price, as the power punch numbers against Taylor (47.6 percent, first fight) and Espino (55.6 percent) show.
Pavlik’s 6-foot-2 1/2 frame, 75-inch reach and aggression forces opponents to confront him at every turn as will be the case against Martinez. Pavlik will keep coming no matter what style he confronts because one can’t argue with 36 wins and 32 knockouts in 37 fights. The difference between those who utterly fail against Pavlik and those who achieve a measure of success is how they counteract his tactics. Martinez can borrow bits and pieces from each to formulate his battle plan.
Bernard Hopkins — and to a lesser degree Taylor in the second fight — used movement and sharpness to limit Pavlik’s success. Taylor threw only 38 punches per round but landed 39 percent overall (178 of 456) and 46.5 percent of his power shots (76 of 164). Hopkins — an expert when it comes to “sludging” his rivals’ offenses — kept Pavlik to 38.6 punches per round, 23.3 percent overall accuracy and 29.1 power shot precision by dictating the tempo. “B-Hop” threw more punches than usual (44.2) but made the most of them as he landed 32.5 percent overall (172 of 530) and 48.7 percent of his power shots.(148 of 304) in outlanding Pavlik 172-108 overall.
So Martinez must negotiate a delicate tightrope in that he must be defensively responsible, but not too timid, as Rubio was in his early rounds. Since he didn’t take the initiative from the start, Rubio allowed Pavlik to average 77.2 punches per round to his 39.0. That enabled the Ohioan to pile up advantages of 695-351 (punches thrown) 146-82 (overall connects), 339-197 (thrown jabs), 76-50 (jab connects), 356-154 (power punches thrown) and 70-32 (power connects). If Pavlik successfully pushes the pace from the opening bell, it will be tough for the shorter and smaller Martinez to withstand the avalanche.
Pavlik’s defense: Even when Pavlik is having his way, “The Ghost” is not invisible on defense. Taylor landed an alarming 64.8 percent of his power shots (105 of 162) in their first fight and 46.3 percent in the rematch. Even the courageous but limited Espino landed 46 percent of his punches overall (155 of 335) and 48 percent of his power shots (152 of 320) and as one will see in the next paragraph the outgunned McKart got in more than a few licks. That should be a source of encouragement for the sharp-shooting Martinez, but he must still be wary of Pavlik’s toughness and drive to succeed.
The southpaw factor: Even though he lost by sixth round TKO, McKart proved that the southpaw stance affects Pavlik’s accuracy. Although Pavlik averaged 88.5 punches per round, McKart limited his overall accuracy to 25.2 percent (134 of 531), 11.9 percent of his jabs (14 of 118) and 29.1 percent of his power shots (120 of 413). But while McKart was very accurate (47 percent overall and 56 percent in power shots) he didn’t throw enough (39.7 punches per round). Martinez must maintain a high enough work rate to keep Pavlik somewhat occupied with defense, and limiting his options to tee off on offense.
Martinez vs. volume: Martinez couldn’t prevent Paul Williams from revving up the offense (81.6 punches per round) but Martinez fought him to a near standstill, showing enough power to have “The Punisher” respect him, and making the most of his countering opportunities. Despite throwing 341 fewer punches (638-979), 156 fewer jabs (192-348) and 185 fewer power shots (446-631), Martinez kept the gap in connects down as Williams led by just 300-254 overall, 94-71 in jabs and 206-183 in power shots. That kept him in the fight and led many to say he should have won. He won’t outthrow Pavlik numerically, but if he eludes enough of Pavlik’s fire while taking advantage of his looser defense, he can pile up enough points to take the belt.
Prediction: Martinez is slick and quick but the natural 154-pounder won’t be strong enough to hold off Pavlik’s juggernaut indefinitely. As was the case for Pavlik against another volume puncher, Antonio Margarito, Martinez’s style will present problems in the first half of the fight. But the demands of holding off the volume puncher will eventually become too much. Pavlik’s superior size, numbers and impact will once again be the difference as he scores a late-round TKO.
