When the Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather Jr. superfight fell through, the pressure was on "Money" to find a suitable – and marketable – substitute. Long criticized for avoiding risk, Mayweather left fans pleasantly surprised when he signed to face WBA welterweight champion Shane Mosley, who showed strength and speed in spectacularly stopping Antonio Margarito in nine rounds in his last fight.
Because of that performance, Mosley was seen as the second biggest threat to Mayweather's treasured undefeated record. Mayweather's a 4-1 favorite.
This is a match that could have been made in 1999 when Mosley was IBF lightweight champion and Mayweather was the WBC super lightweight king and the reigning Fighter of the Year. Given the styles and personalities, this may well be a case of better late than never.
Now that the match has been made, how do their CompuBox histories match up? The past is often a precursor to the future and several factors will be at play.
A matter of pacing: Even in his late 30s, Mosley prefers to push the fight while Mayweather relies on efficiency. Against aggressors Margarito and Miguel Cotto, Mosley managed to exceed their output. Mosley averaged 56.3 punches per round to Margarito's 53.9 in out-landing him 178-108 overall, 60-30 in jabs and 118-78 in power shots despite throwing 63 fewer (240-303). Against Cotto, Mosley averaged 64.5 per round to Cotto's 56.2, tying the Puerto Rican with 248 total connects. Tellingly, Mosley's output dropped to 50.1 against slick southpaw Luis Collazo, who threw 53.2 per round but was nevertheless out-landed 200-87 overall, 27-20 in jabs and 173-67 in power shots.
To paraphrase a familiar axiom, if Mosley hesitates against Mayweather, all is lost.
In 23 CompuBox-tracked fights below welterweight, Mayweather averaged 47.2 punches per round, but in six fights at 147 or more that output dropped to 37.9, far below the welterweight norm of 58.0 and the 58.7 typical junior middleweights throw. What separates Mayweather from the pack is his marksmanship, especially with the power punches that sway judges and discourage opponents.
In throwing just 41.1 per round against Marquez (who threw 48.6), Mayweather piled up astronomical advantages of 290-69 (total) and 105-48 (power) and connected at a 58.8 percent clip to Marquez's 11.8. Unlike Mosley, Mayweather's success was not dependent on his opponent's style. Against the slick Zab Judah, Mayweather's 36.8 output and 46.5 (overall) and 49.1 (power) accuracy netted bulges of 205-89 (total) and 158-64 (power). Oscar de la Hoya's size meant little as Mayweather out-landed him 207-122 (overall) and 138-82 (power) while throwing 40.1 per round and landing at rates of 43 percent (total) and 57.3 percent (power).
Ironically, the older Mosley must force the younger Mayweather out of his shell game to enhance his chances. If Mayweather employs his "four corners' offense, he will pick Mosley apart like all the others.
The table setter: Neither is known for his jab, but it could be a major weapon for both. Mayweather threw just 9.9 jabs per round against Judah but landed 39.5 percent of them. He was more prolific against De La Hoya (20 per round), but wasn't necessarily effective with it against the taller man (28.8 percent). Against the shorter Marquez, however, Mayweather used it often (26.3 per round) and successfully (58.5 percent). In fact, the jab made up 64 percent of Mayweather's offense as opposed to 50 percent against De La Hoya and 26 percent against Judah. The 39-year-old Mosley could make for an inviting target for Mayweather's jab, and it would help set up his precision power shots. Cotto landed 34 percent of his jabs against Mosley while Winky Wright averaged 9.5 jab connects per round in their two fights.
Mosley's best jabbing came at lightweight — his personal record for jabs attempted and landed came in Round 1 against Golden Johnson with 59 attempts and 26 connects. At 147 and 154 the jab hasn't been maximized. Even though Mosley threw more jabs than power shots against Cotto (439-335) and Margarito (267-240), the power game carried the day on connects (177-71 vs. Cotto, 118-60 vs. Margarito). Against stylist Collazo the gulf was even more dramatic (173-27), and given Mayweather's defensive prowess, expect low numbers here. Marquez landed 7 percent of his jabs while De La Hoya connected on 16 percent and Judah 8 percent.
Although Mosley lost both rematches to Vernon Forrest and Wright, each was made closer by an improved jab. Against "The Viper," Mosley threw less (11.2 to 17.0) but landed more in the rematch (40.3 percent to 22.1), while the reverse was true in the two Wright fights (20.1 vs. 23.4 thrown and 2.5 vs. 3.8 landed).
Battle blueprints: For Mosley to win he has two options. The first and most likely is to apply the principles Jose Luis Castillo used in the first Mayweather fight – the only time ''Money" was out-landed in 29 CompuBox-tracked fights (203-157). Mosley must use his superior physical strength to close the distance, muscle Mayweather to the ropes and take him out of his comfort zone. The second is to box at long range and force Mayweather to be the aggressor.
Four of Mosley's five losses came against rangy boxers (Forrest and Wright) with superior height and reach. At 5-foot-8 Mayweather is one inch shorter and his 71-inch wingspan is three inches less, but his skill set is such that he can overcome those deficits.
To win, Mayweather must be slick, quick, watchful and opportunistic. Strike when the iron is hot and move away before Mosley can counter. Keep the fight at ring center and control distance with movement and science. In short, Floyd needs to be Floyd.
Finally, will rust be a factor? Mayweather hasn't fought in seven months while Mosley's layoff is nearly 16. That, combined with Mosley's age, could be definitive.
Prediction: This will be a high-contact fight as each man regularly lands more than 40 percent of his power shots. Whichever man seizes command of pace, distance and pressure in the first six rounds will prevail. This is Mayweather's most demanding test since moving up from 135 in 2003, and the question is whether he has the fortitude to match his immense talent. The guess is yes, but it won't be easy – Mayweather by unanimous decision.
