Big 12 predictions: Week 11

Oh, how elusive perfect weeks can be. sometimes, you hit on an upset pick with a 14-point road underdog, but drop the nightcap thanks to a home favorite nearly everyone picked to win. Thanks again, Red Raiders. To borrow a phrase from one Mike Gundy, let’s get back at it this week with my picks for Week 11.

Last week: 3-1 (.750)
Overall: 45-11 (.804)

THURSDAY

I’ll be in Waco for this one, and I’m excited to get my first look at Baylor up close. I said it in last week’s thoughts, and I’ll say it again: I don’t think this game will be competitive in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma has the athletes on the edge to slow down Baylor’s passing game, but that’s no guarantee, and Baylor will take advantage on the ground. Bryce Petty will still hit a few long balls, but Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin will be too much for the Sooners. Oklahoma will run the ball well, but Baylor gets on top of teams at home very quickly, and an early deficit won’t allow Oklahoma to rely on the run like Kansas State did in Manhattan. … Baylor 55, Oklahoma 31

SATURDAY

The loss of Waymon James isn’t enormous on the field, but it’s another less-than-encouraging sign for a TCU team that’s going to challenge the 2004 squad as the worst under Gary Patterson. Injuries have been an issue, and now TCU may have to play without CB Jason Verrett and backup RB B.J. Catalon, too. Keeping this team motivated right now can’t be easy. It’s all about playing for a bowl. For now, the Frogs keep those bowl hopes alive, thanks to a strong performance from Casey Pachall, and Aaron Green has something of a breakout game. … TCU 23, Iowa State 17

Texas Tech’s front seven can slow down Kansas State’s running game enough to get the win. Kerry Hyder might be the Red Raiders’ MVP on Saturday. Davis Webb will find Jace Amaro at least 10 times once again, and Eric Ward gets in the end zone again. Tech looks good doing it, too, in their Lone Survivor uniforms that pay tribute to the Lone Survivor Foundation that seeks to help the families of wounded military members. … Texas Tech 34, Kansas State 30

Oklahoma State looks like it’s playing its best football at the perfect time, and Kansas doesn’t look like it has made much improvement from a team that’s won eight games since the end of the 2009 season. KU’s 26-game losing streak in Big 12 play might end this year, but it won’t end in Stillwater. Rennie Childs and Desmond Roland both top 100 yards rushing. … Oklahoma State 51, Kansas 13

West Virginia is absolutely good enough to beat Texas, which serves as a fascinating test for the Longhorns. Morgantown is going to be hopping, but Texas elects to put the game on its offensive line’s back once again. Case McCoy plays well, and Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown prove reliable again and take the crowd out of the game with a punishing running game that helps Texas take control in the second half. … Texas 31, West Virginia 20