Heisman Forecast: History shows missing time could derail Tua Tagovailoa’s Heisman hopes

Twenty. Six. Years.

That's how long it's been since Florida State's Charlie Ward in 1993 was the last player -- and the fifth ever -- to miss a game and still go on to win a Heisman Trophy.

Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa is going to test that, as the preseason favorite and one of the players on a very short list who can actually win this season's awards, will be out for at least this week's game vs. Arkansas after ankle surgery. Whether his absence stretches beyond that could all but remove him from the conversation, but with a week off before the Crimson Tide face No. 2 LSU on Nov. 9, it would be stunning to not see Tagovailoa back at the helm of Nick Saban's offense by then.

But consider this: along with with the lack of a winner who has missed time since Ward, no one has finished in the top three in the voting without playing an entire season since Oregon's LaMichael James came in behind Auburn's Cam Newton and Stanford's Andrew Luck in 2010.

That's the history that Tagovailoa is dealing with. His presence as the poster boy of a national title contender, and one with more household name status than almost any player in the nation, make this a compelling case.

His absence may well open he door for other contenders, but who is in line to take advantage? Before we look at the players who can build their own profiles, here's a look at this voter's top three heading into Week 9.

1. Joe Burrow, LSU QB
2. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma QB
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama QB

Burrow -- who has become the Las Vegas favorite -- is already ahead of the Crimson Tide QB in every major category, and this Saturday could only increase his standing in voters' eyes. Burrow and the Tigers take on No. 9 Auburn in Baton Rouge, and if the QB has a third win over a Top-10 opponent on the heels of taking down No. 9 Texas and No. 7 Florida, Tagovailoa will have a hard time bypassing him, without absolutely dominating their clash on Nov. 9. The current leader is in position to create further distance, and he's primed to take advantage.

The player who Tagovailoa once backed up (and who backed up Tua a year later), moves up to the clear second in this voter's eyes with the Alabama QB out. Currently second in FBS in total offense (397.0), and tied for second in points responsible for (180), Hurts leads all Power 5 QBs with 705 rushing yards. He's bound to put up massive numbers this Saturday as Oklahoma takes on Kansas State, which is 102nd against the rush (347.7 yards per game), and follows that with back-to-back Top-25 matchups with No. 23 Iowa State and No. 14 Baylor.

Fields has helped push No. 3 Ohio State to the forefront of the national title conversation, and his trophy case can continue to build this weekend vs. No. 13 Wisconsin. If the Buckeyes QB upstages Badgers' running back Jonathan Taylor, he's going to be in position to climb up the award charts as the Big Ten's clear favorite, and with a schedule that still has two more marquee matchups in No. 6 Penn State and No. 19 Michigan remaining.

The Badgers' playoff hopes took a major hit with the upset vs. Illinois, but Taylor has that aforementioned game against Fields and the Buckeyes, along with his career numbers (no one has reached 5,000 yards in fewer carries). If he and Wisconsin can't take down Ohio State, it's unlikely that career numbers are enough to get him ahead of Tagovailoa in the Heisman pecking order, but Taylor is the lone running back on the realistic contenders list and he has a major opportunity ahead of him.

This amounts to a long shot given Lawrence's lackluster sophomore year (and the odds-makers feel the same way, with the Clemson QB at 100-1 entering this week), but Lawrence is the only player in this race with name recognition that rivals Tagovailoa's. Plus, with the Tigers marching toward another undefeated regular season, he's going to stay at the forefront of the College Football Playoff conversation, so why not the Heisman as well? Lawerence needs big game after big game to make his push and it begins this Saturday vs. Boston College and its 116th-ranked defense.

Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney and Facebook. His books, 'Tales from the Atlanta Braves Dugout: A Collection of the Greatest Braves Stories Ever Told,' and 'The Heisman Trophy: The Story of an American Icon and Its Winners.' are now available.