Official totals in weeks 4-12 against the spread: 53-61-5
Home teams shown in in bold.
Denver (-1.5) vs. Miami
Denver has lost seven in a row, Miami five. Jay Cutler vs. Trevor Siemian is not exactly pretty either and this will probably be one of the more “meh” games of the week. Since one team has to win, I’ll take the Dolphins at home. The Broncos are scuffling bad and their defense will miss suspended CB Aqib Talib.
Pick: Miami (+1.5)
Baltimore (-3) vs. Detroit
I’m still not sold on the Ravens, and I definitely am not sold on Joe Flacco. Their defense has gotten a lot of press in these last few weeks, but they haven’t exactly been playing against the best of the best. Matt Stafford is probably the best QB that Baltimore has seen since week 4, when they played the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger.
Pick: Detroit (+3)
Tennessee (-6.5) vs. Houston
When these two teams matched up in week 4, the Texans won 57-14. That will not happen again, and I’m sure that game is on the mind of the Titans as they prepare for this one. Tennessee is 7-4 but are still looking for a dominant, wire-to-wire win. They get it here against Tom Savage and a injury-ravaged Houston team.
Pick: Tennessee (-6.5)
Jacksonville (-9.5) vs. Indianapolis
While the Jags defense is elite, Blake Bortles is anything but.
Pick: Indianapolis (+9.5)
Kansas City (-3) vs. New York Jets
Darrelle Revis back in New York playing against his former team is a fun storyline to watch. I say he winds up with a pick, because why not?
Pick: Kansas City (-3)
Atlanta (-3) vs. Minnesota
The Falcons are finally looking like a team that can make some noise in the playoff picture. Prediction: a much-talked about Case Keenum has some trouble with the Falcons D.
Pick: Atlanta (-3)
New England (-8.5) vs. Buffalo
Tyrod Taylor is a free agent after this season. It’s time for him to start making some money, and going toe-to-toe with Tom Brady would help.
Pick: Buffalo (+8.5)
Chicago (-3) vs. San Francisco
I love Jimmy Garoppolo, so for no reason whatsoever I’m picking the 49ers.
Pick: San Francisco (+3)
Green Bay (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Aaron Rodgers is nearing a return, and if the Packers win this week and beat the Browns next week, they’ll be getting their MVP back just in time to make a playoff push.
Pick: Green Bay (-2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5) vs. Cleveland
Josh Gordon is back for the Browns, which is awesome. The Chargers are rolling, though, and should probably wreak havoc on a rookie QB for the second home game in a row.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5)
New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Carolina
This one feels like it will stay close throughout and be decided on the last possession.
Pick: Carolina (+4.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Arizona
The Rams continue to roll.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Oakland (-8.5) vs. New York Giants
Eli Manning is benched, and Geno Smith will start for New York. No matter who is at QB for the Giants, they should be able to keep it close at least. Derek Carr is missing Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.
Pick: New York Giants (+8.5)
Philadelphia (-5.5) vs. Seattle
The Eagles need to get tested, and I think they do here. I don’t know how long it has been since Seattle’s been a 5.5 dog at home, but it has to have been a while.
Pick: Seattle (+5.5)
Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Cincinnati
Antonio Brown vs. AJ Green, and two teams that really do not like each other. Yes, please.