Conference tourneys have major implications for Gophers, UMD

Published Mar. 16, 2018 4:05 p.m. ET

Ryan Lund

Now that Loyola and Buffalo have busted your March Madness bracket, welcome.

College hockey's Selection Sunday is upon us, and the conference tournaments on tap this weekend have major implications for several local teams.

Each of the six conferences awards an auto-bid to its tournament champ. With at least two now guaranteed to go to a team outside the top 16, No. 14 is the de facto cutoff in this 16-team tournament.

That field is determined by the NCAA using a formula replicated by PairWise, a ranking system entirely separate from the USCHO.com and USA Hockey Magazine polls used for write-ups and broadcast coverage throughout the season.

Every ranking mentioned from this point on will be based on the former.

No. 17 Northern Michigan and No. 24 Michigan Tech will play for the WCHA's auto-bid this weekend, while No. 20 Mercyhurst, No. 30 Air Force, No. 34 Canisius and No. 43 Robert Morris will play for Atlantic Hockey's.

Of Minnesota's five Division I programs, two are virtual locks -- No. 1 St. Cloud State and No. 6 Minnesota State -- while No. 8 Minnesota Duluth is close and No. 13 Minnesota is on the good side of the bubble.

Jim Dahl has a good writeup on the specific percentages over at College Hockey Ranked.

Indeed, neither Minnesota nor Minnesota Duluth is in a particularly tough spot, but a few upsets in Hockey East, the ECAC and the NCHC could tip the scales. None of them alone are enough to knock the Gophers or Bulldogs out of tournament position, but various permutations of the following scenarios could tip the scales:

No. 14 North Dakota wins the NCHC tournament.

No. 15 Boston College or No. 18 Boston University wins the Hockey East tournament.

No. 22 Princeton or No. 26 Harvard wins the ECAC tournament.

You can test different outcomes yourself using College Hockey News' "You Are the Committee" tool.

What to Watch:

*All times Central

NCHC

North Dakota vs. St. Cloud State. Friday, 4 p.m.

Minnesota Duluth vs. Denver. Friday, 7 p.m.

UND has been on the bubble for the past few weeks, and makes the tournament in a variety of scenarios, some of which are trouble for the Gophers. The bigger surprise here is Minnesota Duluth, which could miss if Harvard, BC or BU and North Dakota earn auto-bids and the Bulldogs don't win a game this weekend. Winning the NCHC third-place game should be enough to save them in that scenario, and in one permutation we ran, could push them from No. 14 all the way up to No. 8 if the rest of these games don't go UMD's way.

Hockey East

Boston College vs. Boston University. Friday, 4 p.m.

Providence vs. Northeastern. Friday, 7 p.m.

Either No. 7 Northeastern or No. 9 Providence is going to have to deal with the winner of BC/BU. Fortunately, they've been adept at it so far this season. Fortunately, BC and BU have just three wins between them against Northeastern and Providence this season in a combined 12 meetings. Anything but a win for the latter two means one less at-large spot for our friends out west.

ECAC

Cornell vs. Princeton. Friday, 3 p.m.

Harvard vs. Clarkson. Friday, 6:30 p.m.

If you're a hockey fan from the Midwest, you're rooting for Clarkson or Cornell this weekend, full-stop. An auto-bid for either Princeton or Harvard could do some major damage to every bubble and bubble-adjacent team we've mentioned so far.