Philadelphia Flyers Expected +/-

We take a look at expected Philadelphia Flyers +/- ratings.

Plus/minus is not a perfect measure but looking at expected +/- gives is a better look into the Philadelphia Flyers plus/minus stat.

First here is how expected +/- works : Metrics utilizing league-wide shot location data, show what we’d expect each Flyer’s player’s +/- to be at season’s end, based on where his team’s shots and his opponent’s shots came from while he was on the ice in even strength situations. The expected value of these shots is based upon league-wide shooting percentages from the various locations (www.sports-reference.com).

The Philadelphia Flyers stat sheet this season is filled with some big minuses in the +/- category. Shayne Gostisbehere is -20, Brayden Schenn  -17, Claude Giroux -17,Wayne Simmonds -16, Jake Voracek -15 and Michael Del Zotto -10 lead the way in the minus category. Only Matt Read is not a minus player on the Flyers roster sitting at even.

Are the Philadelphia Flyers just really bad defensively?

In fact the Flyers defense isn’t bad, just not where it needs to be. It’s easy to look at +/- and the flyers playoff stop slipping away and call the Philadelphia Flyers defense bad.

“Expected +/- leaderboard differs quite a bit from the actual +/- leaderboard, Expected +/- can potentially help identify some of the luck factor in raw +/- numbers” ( www.sports-reference.com)

When looking at the Philadelphia Flyers expected +/-  The numbers don’t look so bad.

Shayne Gostisbehere -0.5, Brayden Schenn,-1.9,Wayne Simmonds 0.2, Claude Giroux 0.2, Jake Voracek -0.9 and Michael Del Zotto -1.4. Philadelphia Flyers leaders in expected +/- Dale Weise +3.4, Radko Gudas + 1.5, Sean Couturier +0.9, Matt Read +0.8, Andrew MacDonald +0.5 and Travis Konecny +0.4.

So what leads to such big differences between the two +/-

How does Shayne Gostisbehere have -20 and expected +/- of -0.5? Several Factors that lead to this conclusion. The Flyers have given up the fourth most amount of goals in the NHL and this means the they are allowing goals from areas that aren’t regarded as high shooting percentage spots. Goaltending hasn’t been a strong suit for the Flyers this season. Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth are posting save percentages at .900 ,SV%.897 SV%. Lot of players are going to have bad +/- ratings when your goaltending isn’t playing well. The Flyers also struggle to score, sitting 20th in goals for in the NHL, meaning the Flyers can’t balance their +/- minus through scoring. The Flyers have issues that need to be addressed, not just the defensive play of certain players.

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