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NHL Expansion Draft: San Jose Sharks Protection Strategy
In the NHL Expansion Draft, the San Jose Sharks could find themselves protecting an unrestricted free agent. That's what happens when you don't have enough contracts.
NHL Expansion Draft
The San Jose Sharks celebrate a second-period goal by defensemen David Schlemko (5) against the Edmonton Oilers. How do the Sharks prepare for the NHL expansion draft? (Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)
The Sharks don't have enough contracts.
That could leave them in a precarious position in the NHL Expansion Draft: potentially protecting an unrestricted free agent.
While that could easily be someone who would very likely re-sign with the Sharks, still. That's not who you want to be protecting this year.
But the Sharks only have seven contracted forwards, and two of those must be exposed. They also only have one restricted free agent.
San Jose's decision-making process must be affected by this. But if the Sharks select the 7-3-1 option, this is their best model.
NHL Expansion Draft
San Jose Sharks center Joe Pavelski (8) shoots and scores a goal against the Edmonton Oilers during the second period in game four of the first round (John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports)
SJ is for Slow Jamz
Applicable Sharks forwards: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Jannik Hansen, Melker Karlsson, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Chris Tierney.
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Guaranteed: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Tomas Hertl
Logan Couture finished third in points this regular season. In the playoffs, he scored the second most goals.
He's been invaluable for the Sharks for years, and he's still a relatively young 28.
Couture's contract is also fine, 6 million until he's 30 in 2019, and his 25 goals are on par with the team's expectations. Couture is also great on the power play.
Couture is also great on the power play.
Pavelski finished tied for the lead in goals with 29 and came in second with 68 points. Even at 32 (soon to be 33), Pavelski remains one of the Sharks' best weapons.
And he's team captain. Pavelski's contract is identical to Couture's, and he was more productive on that contract.
Pavelski has been vital in the last two playoff runs, scoring 4 points this year and 23 last year.
Tomas Hertl is the second-youngest Shark forward. He scored 46 points last year while healthy and added 6 goals in the Sharks cup run. He's just 23 and will be a restricted free agent next year.
Hertl put up 10 goals in 49 games this year as part of 22 points. Tomas Hertl was also a possession master this season, posting a 55.6 Corsi For.
Highly Likely: Melker Karlsson, Chris Tierney
Karlsson is a depth winger, yes, but he's been an exceptional depth player. He scored 5 goals in the Cup run last year and added another game-winning goal this year. One of just two.
Karlsson also added 22 points including 11 goals. He had 59 blocks and 2 short-handed goals, so he's able to play on both ends of the ice.
Melker is also just 26, and on a team that needs to get younger, that's incredibly useful.
Chris Tierney is the youngest active Sharks forward. He's the Sharks current fourth-line center. But Tierney has seen minutes increase every season he's had with the Sharks.
Tierney had two game-winning goals as part of 23 points. With a 54% defensive shift rate, Tierney still had decent possession numbers, up from the last two years. Young guy getting better.
Maybe: Mikkel Boedker, Joe Thornton
The reason Boedker is just a maybe is that he may not have earned his contract this year. He's being paid 4 million a year and posting bottom-six minutes. He only had 26 points in 81 games.
And the Sharks brought Boedker in because of his two 51 point performances his last two seasons with 80 games. He didn't live up to that.
But Boedker is 27 and has the ability to get back to those performances. Those points came largely due to assists, and it may take Boedker a while to click with teammates.
Thornton is (arguably) the best unrestricted free agent for the Sharks. He's also perhaps the most likely to re-sign with the Sharks.
And because he's 37, that contract may be incredibly team friendly. Especially because Thornton's goal scoring fell off a cliff.
Still, Thornton produced 43 assists, the ability Jumbo Joe is known for. He's led the league in assists three times throughout his career, including his Hart season.
Thornton has also been point-per-game nine times in his career, including just last season. The reason he didn't produce as much this year is that his shot percentage got cut in half.
brent burns nhl expansion draft
San Jose Sharks defenseman Brent Burns (88) passes in the second period against the Minnesota Wild (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)
S is for Stamina
Applicable San Jose defensemen: Brent Burns, Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun, Brenden Dillon, David Schlemko, Dylan DeMelo, Mirco Mueller.
Guaranteed: Brent Burns, Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Burns led the Sharks in points, was tied for first in goals, and is about to win the Norris trophy. He's invaluable as an offensive defenseman on this team and comes in the clutch on the power play.
Burns's 8 million until 2025 won't be great eventually, but right now it's setting a high standard for talented scoring defensemen. One Ottawa will have to meet.
Burns also played 24 minutes a night throughout the season and 25 in the playoffs. His possession numbers are also better than expected, though a large part is his 58.5% offensive zone starts.
Paul Martin, even at 36, remains one of the Sharks best defensemen, especially defensively. When you have Brent Burns, you need that.
Martin held up enough to play 19 minutes a night for 81 games. He had great possession numbers and had one game-winning goal. In the playoffs, Martin had a goal and fifteen blocks.
Lastly, Marc-Edouard Vlasic is the best defensive defenseman on the San Jose roster. Even as that type of player, Vlasic still added two game-winning goals this season.
Vlasic also played 21 minutes a night in the regular season and 23 in the playoffs. Marc-Edouard Vlasic had a 55.3% defensive zone shift rate, meaning the Sharks trust him most there.
These three defensemen are absolutely safe from the NHL Expansion Draft.
NHL Expansion Draft
San Jose Sharks goaltender Martin Jones (31) makes a save during warmup against the Edmonton Oilers in game one of the first round (Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)
MJ is for Milkshake Jungle
Applicable San Jose goaltenders: Martin Jones, Troy Grosenick, Aaron Dell.
Guaranteed: Martin Jones
Martin Jones helped lead the Sharks to the Cup Final last year and did his best to try again. In the playoffs this year, Jones posted a 1.75 GAA and a .935 SV%, including one shutout.
And he had two more shutouts in the regular season. 60% of his starts were quality, meaning they were above his .912 SV% on the season.
Plus, you just don't let your starting goaltender go in the NHL Expansion Draft.
A Tiny Bit of Youth
Exempt List: Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier, Danny O'Regan, Noah Rod, Kevin Labanc, Rourke Chartier, Marcus Sorensen, Jeremy Roy, Michael Brodzinski, Mantas Armalis.
NHL Expansion Draft
San Jose Sharks right wing Jannik Hansen (36) shoots against the New York Rangers in the first period at SAP Center at San Jose. (John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports)
Vilified Gnome Knight
Vegas takes either Jannik Hansen or Aaron Dell. There may very well be nobody enticing outside of these two, although if the Sharks use the 4-4 strategy there may be.
Hansen is a 31-year old wing making 2.5 million until next year. Now the reason that would be enticing in the NHL expansion draft is that Hansen has a history of posting 30 points.
Hansen has done that three times, including just last season in 67 games. Hansen is also good at turnovers, taking away the puck more than giving it up every (over 10 games) year in his career.
The Golden Knights will need bottom-six guys who can keep the puck on their stick. That's what Hansen provides in this NHL Expansion Draft.
Aaron Dell, his first year as an NHL backup, had a .931 SV% as well as a 2.00 GAA in 20 games. That's a rare feat, and those are really good numbers.
But is Vegas going to take a risk on a guy with only 20 games played in the NHL? If there's nothing else available, maybe.
If the Sharks use the 4-4, the Golden Knights might very well take Mikkel Boedker in the NHL expansion draft. Boedker, again, has a good history that he just didn't live up to this year.
