Statistical NFL Power Ranking: Ravens Face Top Team

Nov 10, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA;  during the second quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Nov 10, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; during the second quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Power Ranking: Not an opinion, it’s a calculation

The following NFL power ranking is not based on voting or opinions. The ranking comes from a formula created using the differential of seven statistical categories that correlate to higher winning percentage. So what’s the formula? I take the differential of stats like turnover percentage, scoring percentage, yards per play and four others.  I input the stats, and the computer spits out the teams rating. The lower the number (some teams have negative ratings), the worse the team.

It’s been a couple of weeks, but the system is back with a couple of improvements. I added a stat created by former Ravens’ head coach Brian Billick, toxic differential. The other stats were re-weighted to compensate for the new stat. All in all, it looks like a good upgrade; it helped me pick 10 out of 14 games last week including Tennessee over Green Bay. As usual, we start with the dregs of the league.

32

Cleveland Browns

-103.29

Last week: -90.41
Last rank: 32

The losing is starting to eat away at the pysche of this team. This team’s effort level dropped off since earlier in the season when the hope of change rallied the troops. Now they’re in wait until next year mode.
31

Jacksonville Jaguars

-81.81

Last week: -87.96
Last rank: 31

Well, the Jags still look terrible, but at least they’re back to getting their garbage time yards. Gus Bradley will be a defensive coordinator somewhere in the NFL next year.
30

Chicago Bears

-70.79

Last week: -50.10
Last rank: 29

Losing Kyle Long and Alshon Jeffery just squashed the bug after all the legs were pulled off. Hopefully, the Bears address the quarterback situation in this years draft since it’s obvious that Jay Cutler won’t be back.
29

San Francisco 49ers

-59.53

Last week: -78.53
Last rank: 30

The Niners’ losing streak continues after narrowly losing to the Cardinals this week. Their offense improved with Kaepernick, but that’s not to say they’re any good. Plus, the defense just keeps getting worse.
28

New York Jets

-45.90

Last week: -44.67
Last rank: 28

The Bryce Petty era in New York kicked off to miserable beginning in what can only be described as the most boring game of the season. The Rams’ defense is pretty good, but 5.1 yards per attempt won’t cut it.
27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-0.69

Last week: -38.75
Last rank: 27

Despite winning four games this season, the Bucs rank among the worst teams. If their defense could stop anyone, Jameis Winston and Mike Evans might be able to put a few more wins together.
26

Los Angeles Rams

0.11

Last week: -19.22
Last rank: 26

Finally, we get to see the #1 overall pick from this years draft. I’m a little scared. There’s a reason why Jeff Fisher and company continued pushing Case Keenum week after week.
25

Indianapolis Colts

9.60

Last week: 9.60
Last rank: 24

The Colts drop a spot during their bye week after the Texans somehow managed to get another win. This team stinks, but the playoffs remain in play for them if they can manage to win the division.

Nov 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) and tackle Jason Spriggs (78) react after a sack during the second half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. The Titans won 47-25. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

24

Carolina Panthers

14.51

Last week: 16.51
Last rank: 22

After getting back-to-back wins, the Panthers dropped a heart breaking game against the Chiefs at home. I bet Kelvin Benjamin is carrying a ball around all week making sure he holds onto it.
23

Cincinnati Bengals

21.30

Last week: 15.89
Last rank: 23

The Bengals broke even this week even after a loss to the Giants on Monday night. Cincinnati protects the ball, but I can say anything better than that. This is a boring team even with AJ Green.
22

Green Bay Packers

23.09

Last week: 50.24
Last rank: 14

This team is brutal. A team known for offense certainly doesn’t have any this year. They’re only averaging 5.37 yards per offensive play this year. That’s 20th in the league. Just a shade above the Browns.
21

Houston Texans

30.88

Last week: 5.19
Last rank: 25

Houston might be 6-3, but they aren’t a 6-3 team. Their offense is awful, and without JJ Watt, their defense is average. Three of their next four games are on the road. They won’t be leading the division after those four games.
20

New York Giants

33.05

Last week: 23.39
Last rank: 21

Another six win team featured low on the board. The Giants are 6-3, but they have been outscored by their opponents. They’ve failed to have a dominant win all season, and it drags them down in the rankings.
19

Pittsburgh Steelers

39.32

Last week: 47.27
Last rank: 16

The free fall of the Steelers continues as they lost their fourth straight game. Good news for Pittsburgh fans, they play the Browns this week. We can stick a fork in them if they lose this game.
18

New Orleans Saints

47.28

Last week: 51.38
Last rank: 13

A wacky ending with a blocked extra point returned for a two point conversion for the Broncos cost the Saints their third straight win. Now they play a must win game on Thursday night against the Panthers.
17

Detroit Lions

49.62

Last week: 49.62
Last rank: 15

The Lions suddenly find themselves leading the NFC North. Matthew Stafford continues to play at a high level which should solidify his massive contract the Lions will give him at the end of the year.

Nov 10, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith (89) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

16

San Diego Chargers

53.57

Last week: 65.90
Last rank: 11

If San Diego showed up in the fourth quarter, they might be undefeated. Against the Dolphins, Phillip Rivers threw four interception in the fourth quarter including a pick six that was the game winning score.
15

Arizona Cardinals

58.80

Last week: 59.46
Last rank: 12

The NFC Championship game must have wrecked Carson Palmer because he continues to play like he’s stuck in that game. Let David Johnson loose because the passing attack can’t get it done this year.
14

Miami Dolphins

60.91

Last week: 36.23
Last rank: 19

Dolphins’ fans your team won its fourth straight, and now get to face the miserable Rams. Unless Jared Goff works a miracle with this offense, 14 points should be enough to win this game and continue up the poll.
13

Washington Redskins

61.27

Last week: 42.52
Last rank: 17

Rob Kelly has given the Redskins a running game that doesn’t come with weekly Matt Jones fumbles. This helps the passing game along with the fact that no one can cover Jordan Reed.
12

Tennessee Titans

63.47

Last week: 31
Last rank: 20

The biggest mover of the week goes to the Tennessee Titans. You tend to shoot up the boards when you embarrass another team. They treated the Packers like a bunch of little kids playing the adults during a family pick up game.
11

Baltimore Ravens

71.57

Last week: 40.35
Last rank: 18

Once again, the Ravens lead the AFC North, but they have a tall test against the Cowboys this week. The Ravens feature the best defense the Cowboys have faced all season, but can Baltimore stop Ezekiel Elliott?
10

Buffalo Bills

85.14

Last week: 85.14
Last rank: 10

Rex Ryan and the Bills come off the bye to face the Bengals in an attempt to return to .500. If they don’t start winning some games, Ryan can kiss the playoffs and his job goodbye. The Bills have too much talent for their record.
9

Minnesota Vikings

90.85

Last week: 105.25
Last rank: 7

Despite dropping their last four games, the Vikings remain in the top ten because of their defense. The offense has been bad all year, but the loss of both starting offensive tackles caused Sam Bradford to get beaten every game.

Nov 13, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (R) react leaving the field after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. Dallas won 35-30. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

8

Atlanta Falcons

100.40

Last week: 111.79
Last rank: 5

Atlanta still lacks aggression on both sides of the ball. They lose too many games against inferior opponents because they simply get physically beat at the point of attack. This needs to get fixed if they want to make the next level.
7

Oakland Raiders

100.51

Last week: 100.51
Last rank: 8

The Raiders defense looked pretty good before they entered the bye week. They’ve only allowed 20 points per game for their last three games. This week they get the Texans whose offense looks worse every week.
6

Seattle Seahawks

109.02

Last week: 96.76
Last rank: 9

It takes a good team to go into Gillette Stadium and escape with a win against the Patriots. Russell Wilson continues to prove he belongs in the conversation as one of the best in the business. And then that goalline stand at the end. Defense still got it.
5

Philadelphia Eagles

116.60

Last week: 108.36
Last rank: 6

The Eagles are only 5-4, but their wins have been big, and their losses have been close. If they could win a couple of roads games to end the season, they will easily make the playoffs, but they’ll need a home game to win
4

Denver Broncos

117.64

Last week: 112.44
Last rank: 4

The Broncos need to take their week off and figure out what to do with their offense. Much like last year, the defense continues to win games for the stagnant offense. They won it all last year, but it won’t be so easy this year.
3

Kansas City Chiefs

140.59

Last week: 133.50
Last rank: 3

Marcus Peters yanked the ball from Kelvin Benjamin to give the Chiefs the opportunity to kick the game winning field goal. Peters is clearly the best young corner in the NFL, and I expected to see him shadowing Mike Evans this week.
2

New England Patriots

155.29

Last week: 178.14
Last rank: 1

New England drops a game and a spot in the power ranking. I still think they are head and shoulders above the rest of the AFC, but they can be beaten. We’ll see them back at number one next week after putting up ridiculous numbers against the 49ers.
1

Dallas Cowboys

177.99

Last week: 177.44
Last rank: 2

The Dallas Cowboys reach number one as Tony Romo accepts his place as number two. Ezekiel Elliott might become the first player to win both the Rookie of the Year award and MVP. Over 1,000 yards in nine game, impressive.

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