NFL Week 7: Super Bowl 51 odds

As the 2016 NFL season enters Week 7, here are the latest odds for which teams have the best shot at making it to Super Bowl 51 (LI) in Houston, Texas.

Entering Week 7, there are five teams we can cross as clubs that probably aren’t going to make the NFL Playoffs. Sorry fans of the Carolina Panthers, the Chicago Bears, the Cleveland Browns, the New York Jets, and the San Francisco 49ers, but your combined four wins through six weeks won’t get your team anywhere near the Lombardi Trophy.

There is still a ton of football left to be played in the 2016 NFL season, but here are the latest odds for teams’ likelihoods to win Super Bowl 51 (LI) at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, according to OddsShark.com.

There are three teams that have better than +1000 odds to win Super Bowl 51 entering Week 7. Those teams are the New England Patriots at +300, the Minnesota Vikings at +700, and the Seattle Seahawks at +750. Most people view these clubs as the best three teams in the football through six weeks. The Patriots should have the best odds, as they play in the weaker AFC.

Seven other teams in the NFL have +2000 or better odds at winning Super Bowl 51. Those teams are the Dallas Cowboys (+1000), the Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200), the Green Bay Packers (+1200), the Arizona Cardinals (+1400), the Atlanta Falcons (+1800), the Kansas City Chiefs (+1800), and the Denver Broncos (+2000).

Of those seven teams, the two odds to avoid are the Steelers and the Packers. Pittsburgh will be without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for four to six weeks. That might force the Steelers out of the AFC Playoff picture entirely. This is a great team when healthy, but middle of the pack in the AFC at this time.

The Packers aren’t winning the NFC North over the Vikings. Perhaps the Detroit Lions aren’t that far away from second place in the division as people think? Green Bay doesn’t score second half touchdowns. It’s hard to win the Super Bowl when the offense evaporates in the second half.

The two odds in the top-10 that are appealing are the Falcons and the Chiefs for different reasons. Atlanta is probably going to win the weak NFC South. The Falcons have an elite offense and will play most of their games the rest of the way inside a dome, including the NFC Playoffs.

Kansas City has not played its best ball of 2016. The Chiefs tend to play better in the second half once it gets colder. This has to do with the Andy Reid offense being more effective in colder conditions. Denver is an interesting play at +2000, but the Broncos quarterback situation is dreadful.

Outside of the top-10, here are three Super Bowl 51 odds to maybe consider: the Buffalo Bills at +3300, the Washington Redskins at +4000, and the Lions at +7500. Yes, all three of these teams display dysfunctional behavior from time to time, but here’s the rationality behind these odds being favorable.

Buffalo is playing a ground-and-pound offensive style with a great defense backing it up. The Bills feel like an AFC Wild Card. Their style of play appropriately translates to winning in January. Whether they win the AFC East or get either Wild Card spot, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bills in the 2016 AFC Championship Game.

Washington seems like a team that is at least NFC Wild Card caliber. Offensively, the Redskins are gelling with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Interestingly, they are probably the least dysfunctional team in the NFC East. Maybe the Redskins can build on last year’s NFC Playoff experience and get to a Super Bowl.

The Lions are 3-3 and are getting things done with quarterback Matthew Stafford and their no-name offense. They are not the most talented team, but are never of games with Stafford’s howitzer of a right arm. Could Detroit be the ultimate dark horse in the NFC? +7500 is disrespectful to a team that will finish in the top half of the NFC this season.

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