Jacksonville Jaguars essentially guaranteed to land another top-5 draft pick

With the kind of expectations levied on them during the offseason, it’s a massive disappointment to see the Jacksonville Jaguars heading towards another top-5 draft pick.

I’ll admit it it – I’m absolutely shocked that we are sitting here in December and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-10. Before the season started, I expected the Jaguars to have at least 6 wins at this point and be firmly in contention for the AFC South.

Instead, the Jaguars are set up to have yet another top-5 draft pick. Given their remaining schedule and how the team has played, the Jaguars may draft number 3 again.

Kevin Seifert over at ESPN.com went through the current draft order and discussed the odds for receiving a top 5 pick:

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 2-10

FPI odds of top pick: 0.7 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 90.2 percent

Comment: Factors working in the Jaguars’ favor in this race include a remaining schedule against four teams in playoff contention. They will face the Vikings, Texans, Titans and Colts the rest of the way. Factors working against them for a top-three pick include … uh … none.

The Jaguars could finish 2-14 and still not get the first overall pick, a conclusion that would be appropriate given the complete dearth of luck this franchise has had over the last decade.

Seifert highlights why the Jaguars almost certainly won’t win more than one more game – the Jaguars play winning teams (or not losing teams at least) over the last 4 weeks. Some folks are saying the Jaguars could catch the Vikings this week or the Texans next week because they both have ineffective offenses, but the Jaguars’ losses to the Chiefs and Broncos have shown that it doesn’t really matter.

I’m resigned to the fact that the Jaguars will have yet another high draft slot, but the focus now is on deciding  who should make those selections in 2017. General manager David Caldwell‘s fate is probably the biggest question heading into the offseason, especially given recent news of Tom Coughlin’s possible return to the Jaguars.

With any luck, whoever is in charge takes advantage of what will hopefully be one of the last times this team drafts in the top 5.

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