Well, Week 6 didn’t go exactly as planned, as a 2-3 record brought me to 11-9. It’s hard to look at the overall record when you’re placing a couple of money line bets every week, but without getting too nitty-gritty it’s the best I can do.
This week we have a big time AFC South match-up between the Titans and Colts. With the Texans primed for a loss up in Denver, this is a golden opportunity for the Titans to snag a share of the lead of the division with a massive win, extend that “winning streak” to 3 games, and finally compete in the AFC South. It’s painful to even write “finally compete in the AFC South” given that it has been the weakest division in football over the past few years, but since the beginning of the 2014 season, the Titans are 2-11 against other AFC South teams, with both wins coming at home against the Jaguars. That’s tough. But here we are, .500 through 6 games, with a real opportunity. Come on Titans, pleeeeeeease.
Similar to last week, the Titans are the favorite here and I don’t like it. The Colts have won 9 in a row against the Titans and playing in Nashville hasn’t been a huge advantage for us over the past couple of years (reminder: our only wins in Nashville over the past two seasons came last week against the Browns and last year against the Jaguars). To be clear, I’m not saying we’re going to lose. I think it’s actually a great match-up for the Titans, and I think Andrew Luck could be getting sacked all day long, but I don’t think it’s wise to be putting money on the Titans as a favorite. So like last week (when I was right…), I will be passing on this but if you must, I’d go Colts +2.5.
Vikings at Eagles
Spread: Vikings -2.5
Money Line: -140/+120
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
So the undefeated Vikings roll into Philly to play a rookie QB from North Dakota State who has lost 2 in a row, and they’re favored by less than a field goal… I’m going Vikings all day. Granted, I think I bet against the Eagles in each of the first 3 weeks and that did not go very well for me (remember “lock of the week” in Week 3?), but I feel good about this one. I mean, the Vikings went to Nashville and beat the Titans in Week 1 so they MUST be legit, right??? Well, I couldn’t find a prop bet for Carson Wentz not finishing the game, so I’ll just bet on the spread and go Vikes, but if you can’t find that line for me, please let me know.
Browns at Bengals
Spread: Bengals -10
Money Line: +350/-420
Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
So I lost a couple hundred bucks last time the Bengals were a huge favorite, when they were giving 8 points to the Dolphins, but I still think that was an absurd spread, and I think this one is too. Ten points is way too many, even if the Browns are awful. The real value pick here, though, is on the money line! +350 is huge and while it’s a long shot, I love it. The Browns should have beaten the Ravens, could have beaten the Dolphins, gave the Redskins a run for their money, and somehow made me incredibly nervous last week despite a 15 point lead with a couple of minutes to go. Like I reminded everyone last week, the Browns are a professional football team and have some playmakers. So why not, take the Browns to get that first W.
Raiders at Jaguars
Spread: Jags -1
Money Line: -105/-115
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
While Blake Bortles has played fine in the fourth quarter this season, he has been one of the worst QBs in quarters 1-3 in the NFL. On the other sideline, Derek Carr has been a pretty good end of game QB himself. Bortles will need to put up some early points to keep his squad in the game. The Jags as the favorite here is shocking to me. I think the Raiders win with some authority.
Seahawks at Cardinals
Spread: Cards -1.5
Money Line: +105/-125
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Again, I think Vegas has this one wrong. The Seahawks have been playing great football, and the Cardinals haven’t, and somehow the Hawks are the dogs on Sunday. Who knows who will win, that’s why they play the game. This should be the best game of the weekend. But if the Hawks are getting points when they play anyone (other than the Pats in Foxboro), you gotta take Seattle.