FANTASY PLAYS: Stacking players like Brees in daily lineups
Stacking in daily fantasy football is important because when a quarterback has a huge performance there will naturally be pass catchers who also benefit.
When a QB throws for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns, a receiver by default will rack up yardage and scores. Pairing a QB and pass catcher together increases the potential upside for a lineup because fantasy owners get double the points each time they hook up.
The high total in the Texans-Patriots game in Week 1 is likely to garner a lot of interest from daily players, leaving others stacks with lower potential ownership. One such stack is the Drew Brees-Michael Thomas connection in New Orleans as the Saints host the Buccaneers. The Saints are 9 1/2-point favorites over Tampa Bay and missing one of their top running backs. And the Saints offense projects to be one of the most concentrated in the league.
Thomas is projected to have 28.3 percent target market share, the fourth highest in the league according to DailyRoto projections, following a 28.1 percent target market share in 2017. Target market share is a pass-catcher’s share of all of a quarterback’s targets — and it’s no secret where Brees will likely throw.
Last year, the Buccaneers ranked 31st in passing defense, according to Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic. Vernon Hargreaves, one of their starting corners, allowed a whopping 1.61 yards per coverage snap. It’s a beatable matchup that Las Vegas sports books have factored into their wagers offered.
In the unlikely event Thomas is slowed down, it would be either due to the Bucs defense shutting him down or a dominant performance from running back Alvin Kamara — the other guy to consider stacking with Brees.
Just a season ago, Kamara caught more passes than any running back besides Le’Veon Bell and scored more receiving TDs than any RB not named Todd Gurley. Bucs linebacker Lavonte David graded as one of the top linebackers in coverage and the team still ranked 25th in DVOA versus RBs in coverage and allowed nearly 50 receiving yards per game (48.0) to the position.
If the Saints are up late, running out the clock with Kamara would almost surely be the game plan.
Kamara attempted 56 rushes in the first half of games last year and 64 total in the second half of games. DailyRoto’s model projects him for 49.5-percent of the rushing market share, 50-percent of the rushing TD market share and over 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) which even factors in some expected regression following his 6.1 YPC last year — which tied with Barry Sanders for the third highest by a running back since the 1973 season.
Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension opens up the potential for Kamara to touch the ball at least 20 times, something he didn’t do at all last year.