FANTASY PLAYS: Digging into implied totals for daily lineups
It’s almost time for reflection in season-long fantasy leagues, but not in daily.
As the playoff races heat up, so do the prize pools in daily fantasy and we can still gain an edge by looking in-depth at some of the teams in the best position to succeed in Week 12. Leveraging Vegas implied team totals we can look at some of the offenses expected to score the most points with a filter on which teams have more heavily concentrated offenses.
While a balanced game plan can be fruitful for NFL teams, fantasy owners are looking for value from more concentrated attacks. There are four spots this week to key on that each have their own puzzle to solve.
The New England Patriots have a 28-point implied total and yet not a single player projects as a top value on DailyRoto relative to their daily fantasy salary. While the Patriots have funneled 50 percent of the passing targets to James White and Julian Edelman, the offense projects to be very diverse coming off the bye week. The emerging role of Josh Gordon plus returns for Sony Michel and Rob Gronkowski should all improve New England’s on-field performance, but could frustrate fantasy owners. Despite the strong brand names, the Patriots are not a must-have fantasy attack for Week 12.
The Chargers have a 28-point team total and should offer more a more concentrated offense. Wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Melvin Gordon represent nearly 50 percent of Philip Rivers‘ passing targets, with Gordon also commanding 60 percent of the ground attack. In the three games since the bye, Gordon has received more than 20 opportunities via the ground or passing attack with Allen averaging double-digit targets over the same stretch. Both Gordon and Allen are exceptional Week 12 daily values in a high total game with a heavily concentrated attack and can be paired up with Philip Rivers in tournaments, as all three project for 20 or more fantasy points. The Chargers are a good target for single entry DFS players.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts both have team totals around 30 points and the highest projected team scoring on the entire Sunday slate of games. On top of this, both teams are projected to run nearly 65 plays each and feature a high volume passing attack. Jameis Winston and Andrew Luck are in perfect positions to put up massive fantasy scores and project as the QB1 and QB2 in DailyRoto NFL projections. The challenge with both of these offenses is their diversity can be a challenge if trying to build one DFS lineup.
Mike Evans and T.Y. Hilton average around 20 percent of their team’s targets but that is not the same dominant market share we expect from No. 1 receivers on other teams like Michael Thomas, Deandre Hopkins or Odell Beckham Jr. Instead, the Colts spread the ball with seven different options receiving 10 percent or more targets, while the Bucs attack is distributed through five primary receivers. The Colts and Bucs are perhaps better saved for DFS owners who are looking to build multiple lineups. By mixing and matching Luck and Winston with different sets of receivers, you are able to capture exposure to their team total and fantasy upside without having to hone in on one spot.
Vegas totals can be a great indicator of where there is fantasy goodness, just make sure you peel back the layers when setting your Week 12 DFS lineups.